Top 5 MVP Candidates

(Written on 12/21/15)

As the season’s end draws near, it’s time to take a look at the NFL’s top five MVP candidates.

5. Your choice of defensive player (Defensive MVP):

We have seen numerous individual defensive performances worthy of MVP candidacy this season, and each are deserving of this award. Winning the MVP, to me, means the defense is not nearly as efficient or simply good without them. J.J. Watt is second in the NFL with 13.5 sacks while defending five passes and forcing a fumble. The most impressive part? He’s been double and triple teamed at a much higher rate than last season as he continues to be one of the premier defenders. Defensive tackle Aaron Donald has built on his impressive rookie season, and has even challenged Watt as the NFL’s most dominant force. His 12.1 pass rushing productivity is second-best among defensive tackles and 3-4 defensive ends while his run stop percentage of 11.1 percent is fourth-best among defensive tackles; he also has 11 sacks, 20 hits, and 32 hurries on his 414 pass rushes. Corner back Josh Norman has made a strong case this season due to his improved play as a boundary corner and the Panthers’ defensive schemes that allow him flexibility. His statistics are simple: he has held Mike Evans, T.Y. Hilton, DeAndre Hopkins, Dez Bryant, and Julio Jones to a COMBINED nine receptions for 89 yards; Norman has also intercepted four passes. Guys like Khalil Mack and Luke Kuechly have made compelling cases as well. Tyrann Mathieu’s 89 tackles and five interceptions make him an interesting candidate as well.

4. Antonio Brown, WR (Pittsburgh Steelers):

While a quarterback will likely win this award, Brown deserves serious recognition as he is undoubtedly the NFL’s best wide receiver.  He has the third most targets (167) and is second in the NFL with 116 receptions, catching 69.4% of his targets with only two drops, while his 1,586 yards and 113.3 yards per game lead the NFL; Brown is also second in the NFL with 21 catches of 20+ yards and third in yards after the catch. He has found the end zone nine times and has returned a punt for a touchdown, but consider the fact that Brown has done all of this with three different quarterbacks this season. He has eight games with 100+ yards and four with 10+ catches; he is also coming off a 16-189-2 performance against one of the NFL’s elite corners in Chris Harris Jr. He has been a game changer his entire career, and with a healthy Ben Roethlisberger the entire season, he could be within reach of historic numbers.

3. Carson Palmer, QB (Arizona Cardinals)

Palmer has spearheaded an offense that shows absolutely no signs of slowing down. He is second in the NFL in passer rating (106.7) and third in passing yards (4,277) and touchdowns (32), leading the Cardinals to a 12-2 record and an NFC West clinching victory. He is Pro Football Focus’ second highest-rated quarterback, only .3 points behind Roethlisberger and has gotten better as the season’s progressed. He was exceptional in the month of November, throwing for 1,325 yards and 11 touchdowns against only four interceptions with a 101.6 passer rating; in his three games in December, he has thrown for 940 yards and five touchdowns with a 109.6 passer rating without tossing a single interception. Palmer has also been better on the road having thrown for 2,405 yards and 18 touchdowns and a 63.9 completion percentage, only one percent lower than his percentage at home, while throwing only one more interception (five) and taken one more sack (12) with 75 more attempts.

2. Cam Newton, QB (Carolina Panthers)

In reality, Palmer and Newton could be 2a and 2b due to their level of play. While Palmer has arguably the second best receiving trio in the league, Newton has been backed by the field position and their ability to get him on the field as many times as possible. Regardless, Newton is 14-0 and has scored 40 touchdowns this season, 33 through the air (second in the NFL) and seven on the ground (sixth in the NFL). Remember when Kelvin Benjamin was lost for the season during training due to his ACL, and we all wondered how the passing game would survive? That ship has sailed as Newton has thrown for 3,402 yards against 10 interceptions, a career low if the season ended today. Yesterday, Newton became the first player in NFL history to throw for five touchdowns and run for 100 yards in the same game as Newton has now run for 580 yards this season. While he makes a strong case to be the winner, Newton struggled in September and October throwing for a combined 1,275 yards and nine touchdowns with nearly as many interceptions (seven) with a 55.8 completion percentage; in his first eight games, he threw for 1,820 yards and 14 touchdowns versus nine interceptions with a lowly completion percentage (53.7) and passer rating (81.3). He was good on the ground, rushing for 343 yards and five touchdowns with a 4.7 yard per carry average. Newton found his groove in the second half of the season, throwing for 2,127 yards and 24 touchdowns while only throwing three interceptions in 258 attempts (60.8 completion percentage). In his last six games, Newton has thrown for 1,582 yards and 19 touchdowns while tossing one interception with a 65.3 completion percentage and 121.3 passer rating. The Panthers have scored almost as many points in their last six games (221) than they did in their first eight (228).

1. Tom Brady, QB (New England Patriots):

While the Panthers’ defensive success will be argued when Newton’s candidacy is mentioned, it shouldn’t hinder his chances due to his unbelievable level of play. Unlike Newton, however, Brady’s entire receiving corp has been depleted at time and he has played an elite level the entire season, as opposed to one half without an equally strong defense. He is Pro Football Focus’ third highest rated quarterback while leading the league in passing yards (4,405) and touchdowns (35) while his 103.8 passer rating ranks fourth. He has thrown 40+ six times, including games with 54, 56, and 59, while 27 attempts are the least the entire season as their lack of a consistent running game has put the offensive workload on Brady has his 572 attempts are second in the league, five behind Phillip Rivers while completing 64.3 percent of his passes. He has thrown only six interceptions, the third most among those with triple digit attempts. Brady continued his success in the Patriots’ two losses, throwing for 592 yards and six touchdowns against two interceptions. The Patriots are third in the league in yards and points scored while 14 different Patriots have recorded a reception. New England’s top four receivers, Rob Gronkowski, Danny Amendola, Julian Edelman, and Brandon LaFell, have missed a combined 12 games while running back Dion Lewis was lost for the season after seven games. It’s unbelievable to think what Brady and the Pats (12-2) could do if those guys were healthier.