(Written on 11/18/15)
A season that was once full of promise appears to be no more
The St. Louis Rams had a tumultuous off-season, trading franchise quarterback Sam Bradford to the Eagles for fellow quarterback Nick Foles, spending the 10th overall pick on a running back just a few months removed from a torn ACL that was projected to keep him sidelined well into the 2015 season, and acquiring Nick Fairley, the oft-criticized defensive tackle who spent four seasons in Detroit. While the latter two have paid dividends for the Rams, the former has not. Just nine games into his first season as a Ram, head coach Jeff Fisher has pulled the plug on Foles for Case Keenum.
As is the norm in athletics following a monumental trade, the Eagles have gotten the better end of the deal after comparing the two. Via Pro Football Focus, Foles is 32nd in total passing grade, 28th in PFF Passer Rating, 27th in Accuracy Percentage, 39th in Deep Accuracy Percentage, and 21st in Accuracy Under Pressure Percentage. Bradford has bested Foles in all five categories, sitting at 19th, 23rd, 7th, 18th, and 3rd respectively. Foles’ biggest detractors have noted his inconsistency, and as PFF pointed out, “overall, he has played four games with a +4.0 grade or better in his career, but another six with grades worse than -4.0. Three of those games have come this year, including the one that resulted in his benching against the Bears.” Foles recorded only his second 200 yard game of the season last week against the Bears, his first since Week 1 and has only thrown for multiple touchdowns game once this season, tossing three against the Cardinals in Week 4. The Rams are also dead last in passing yards per game with 179.
Case Keenum’s career -10.6 grade is not quite reassuring, although his 2013 season in Houston provided exciting moments for the Texans; his 1,760 yards, nine touchdowns, and 78.2 through eight games in 2013 are all better than Foles’ numbers through nine games this year. Perhaps the most disastrous aspect of Foles’ benching is his contract. Just before the start of the season, St. Louis extended his contract to a 3-year, $24.5 million deal; the Rams are now paying him $6 million this year as opposed to the $1.5 million they would have originally paid him. While things get better Foles, the opposite is true for the Rams as his $1.75 million salary and $6 million roster bonus for next season are already guaranteed meaning if the Rams decide to cut Foles after the season, they will still owe him $7.75 million next year. While the writing for Foles’ Rams career seems to be on the wall, the Rams still receive Philadelphia’s second round pick next year and will actually save $5 million in cap space by cutting him.
Lest we forget, the Rams are still 4-5 and tied for second in the NFC West
With a healthy Gurley and a defense that finds a way to be more consistent (373 yards surrendered to the Redskins and 397 to the Bears), Keenum only has to be average for the Rams to make a playoff push. If Foles had been at least average, there’s no reason the Rams shouldn’t be 7-2: Gurley didn’t start against Pittsburgh which certainly had an affect on their game plan as Foles was below 200 yards with an interception, he was a mere 18-33 with no touchdowns against the Vikings, and threw a whopping four interceptions against the Packers. The Rams have done an adequate job getting Tavon Austin involved in the offense as he and Stedman Bailey (once he returns from injury) provide necessary deep threats while Kenny Britt and Wes Welker are viable third down options. Keenum shouldn’t be asked to do anymore than Foles was, only to be more efficient and take shots down the field all while protecting the ball. Teams will continue to game plan around Gurley, but that doesn’t seem to matter as he is still playing at an extremely high pace. This week provides a very winnable match up against the struggling Ravens, and if Keenum can produce better numbers than Foles, a rather simple task, there is no reason St. Louis can’t win at least eight games and have a shot at the playoffs.
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