Thursday, February 11, 2016

Los Angeles Rams Off-season Plan

(Written on 12/30/15)

The summary of the Rams' season has been talked to death, and I don't need to go into detail about their offensive woes. Regardless, there are changes to be made, contracts to be restructured, and roster moves to be considered. Here, I will discuss what possibilities to look forward to this off-season.

Offensively, the first thing that should be done is cutting tight end Jared Cook who is due $8.3 million in 2016. Throughout his career, Cook has been an inconsistent pass catcher and sub-par run blocker; he is Pro Football Focus' 55th rated tight end this season. To put things in perspective, Cook's contract is valued at $35.1 million, the ninth highest among all tight ends. Those making less? Delanie Walker ($17.5 million), Gary Barndige ($12.3 million), Tyler Eifert ($8.256 million), Ben Watson ($4.95 million) , and Zach Ertz ($5.379 million), all who have caught more passes for more yards and more touchdowns this season. Ultimately, cutting Cook after June 1st will save the Rams $7 million and give them a total of $43.3 million in cap space. Ladarius Green and Craig Stevens will both be free agents at a much cheaper price.

Up front, Week 16 hero center Tim Barnes will be a free agent who is not worth re-signing. He made four starts in 2013 as he continued to struggle in run blocking and pass protection before playing in only nine snaps in 2014; he beat out the likes of Demetrius Rhaney, Eric Kush, and Barrett Jones who was later cut. Barnes is PFF's 26th rated center as the Rams are better suited to look for a replacement in the draft due to the lack of upgrade center's entering free agency have to offer. One possibility is cutting right guard Rodger Saffold, who is due $6 million next season but underwent surgery to repair a torn labrum after five games; Saffold has played in only 68 of 96 career games, starting in 65. Coupled with Cook, cutting Saffold will give the Rams $48.388 million in cap space. This allows St. Louis to pursue free agents Evan Mathis and Ramon Foster, as rookie Cody Wichmann still needs to develop but has shown promise after starting in six games. I don't envision the Rams resigning receivers Brian Quick and Wes Welker, let alone anything outside of a one year deal.

Now, the quarterback struggles are well documented and we know the fact that the Rams are 7-8 with their quarterback play is admirable. Not all the blame, however, deserves to fall on them due to the rather weak receiving corp. Cutting Nick Foles leaves the Rams with $7 million in dead money despite his awful play as Case Keenum will likely go into next season as the projected starter (I'm banking this on the belief he will be re-signed). While Keenum's play has improved during Rob Boras' time as the offensive coordinator, he has managed the game more than he has made an impact. Quarterbacks Brock Osweiler and Kirk Cousins will both be free agents at the end of the season, and will likely seek $6 million+ a year. Both are young (25 and 27 respectively) and both have shown the ability to be franchise quarterbacks, another direction the Rams could head. On the contrary, they are currently sitting at 15th in the 2016 draft, the likes of Carson Wentz, Jared Goff, and Paxton Lynch will likely be off the board but with two second round picks and Sneads' willingness to move or down, the Rams have the ammunition to get their quarterback. Outside of Alshon Jeffery, there are no free agent receivers that are true number one's, an aspect the Rams so desperately desire.

What seems like the best possible scenario is signing Osweiler or Cousins and taking a receiver (or two) in the draft as the Rams try to build and progress with the NFL's youngest roster. However, General Manager Les Snead has made it known he wants to build through the draft which would likely mean a quarterback in the first and receiver in the second. On the other hand, signing one of the aforementioned quarterbacks would allow the Rams to trade up to take Ole Miss receiver Laquon Treadwell if need be; TCU's Josh Doctson and Pitts' Tyler Boyd are possible options in the second. The same can be said about trading up to take a quarterback, but will likely take their first and both second rounders to do so.

Things get interesting on the other side of the ball as corners Janoris Jenkins and Trumaine Johnson will both be free agents. While both have improved, Johnson has allowed the lowest passer rating in the NFL when thrown at and is tied for second with seven interceptions. He is in the last year of his four year/$3.04 million contract, and will likely seek a four year/$17 million+ year where his base salary will annually increase. As for Jenkins, he has stated publicly that he will likely test free agency, an incentive for the Rams to franchise tah him: Jenkins has improved each season and deserves a major raise. Letting Jenkins walk, who will probably want more than Johnson, isn't necessarily a bad thing as they have talent behind him. Second year corner E.J. Gaines started 15 games at corner as rookie, racking up 70 tackles, 14 defended passes, and two interceptions before suffering a Lisfranc injury in August, causing him to miss all of the 2015 season. Fellow corner Lamarcus Joyner is coming into his own after a 2014 rookie campaign where he started one game and played in 10, recording 40 tackles, a sack, and two defended passes. Due to the injuries that have affected the Rams' secondary this season, he has started five and played in 15 with 65 tackles, two sacks, and six passes defended. Fellow backfield mate Rodney McLeod signed a one year/$2.365 million prior to the season after finishing as PFF's 18th rated safety. McLeod has racked up 75 tackles and forced three fumbles, bettering his numbers from last season, while intercepting a pass. He too could be due for another pay day.

Longtime Ram and fan favorite Chris Long faces the possibility of being cut. Due $14.25 million in 2016, the defensive end has started all but 12 games between 2008-2013, a true model of consistency. However, he has started a mere 17 games in the last two seasons and will be 31 when the 2016 season starts, reducing his production. Cutting Long before the season starts will save the Rams an astounding $12 million despite the fact he's entering a contract year. Fellow defensive linemen Eugene Sims and William Hayes will likely be re-signed to two year deals as they play a role in the Rams' rotation and success up front. One of my favorites, Mark Barron (PFF's 17th rated linebacker), is expected to cash in after tallying 74 tackles, 15 tackles for loss, five passes defended, three forced fumbles, and a sack as a key member of their defenses.
On the other hand, fellow linebacker James Laurinaitis faces the same possible fate as Long. A similar model of consistency, Laurinaitis has started every game of his career since 2009 but has seen his production dip since 2012. He made 108 stops while registering a sack, safety, forced fumbles, and an interception but finished as PFF's 83rd linebacker. Cutting Laurinaitis will save nearly $6 million, and with linebackers such as Bruce Irvin and Danny Trevathan entering free agency, who are both currently making less than Laurinaitis, the Rams have targets to pursue. Expect kicker Greg Zurlein to be re-signed as well.

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