2017 NFL Draft Guide Preview

For those of you interested in the guide's content, here is a preview of two scouting reports and an article featured in the guide.

NAME: Deshaun Watson		HT: 6’2”  WT: 221			POS: QB	SCHOOL: Clemson
2016 Stats: 67%, 4,593 yards, 41 TDs and 17 INTs; 629 rushing yards and nine TDs					Career Stats: 67%, 10,168 yards, 90 TDs and 32 INTs; 1,934 rushing yards and 26 TDs
STRENGTHS
• Incredibly mechanically sound and consistent • Fluid in his drops, staying in rhythm with the concept • Shows the ability to zip the ball into tight windows on level one throws • Drives his hips through the release point for added velocity • Timing and rhythm passer who can throw guys open and keep them on their routes • Developed pocket maneuverability, climbing and sliding with clean footwork while keeping his eyes down field • Sound ability to reset his feet in the pocket, maintaining the connection with his eyes • Heavy-handed ball comes out smoothly; adds desired touch on vertical shots • Impeccable arm talent that will challenge the defense vertically • Throws out-breaking routes and back shoulder fades to the requisite spots • Scans the field and goes through progressions in a hurry • Pocket poise allows him to remain accurate in a refined pocket • Great athlete who can extend plays with his feet and deliver from an unbalanced base • The moment never seems too big for him, stepping up and delivering as the game gets bigger • Praised for his leadership and work in the community • Graduated in three years and displays ideal maturity both on and off the field					• Will bird dog targets and lose his field vision, opting for tougher windows over easier throws • Placement on in-breaking routes needs to become more consistent • Inconsistent weight transfer and come-to-balance causes vertical throws to lose velocity on the back-end • 2016 rise in interceptions were primarily a cause of his struggles to identify pre-snap disguises and rolls • There were some occurrences of his front leg locking as he’s delivering, causing the ball to come out high • Propensity to rush his feet as the pocket shrinks • Shows over-striding when forced to really drive the ball • Has escaped clean pockets, breaking the integrity of the play • Lean lower-half and a slender frame with quite the mileage • Bad habit of rushing anticipation throws that cause balls to scatter
POSITION TRAITS
TRAIT	RATING		SUMMARY		TRAIT	RATING	SUMMARY
Arm Talent	7.33		Strength/power: 6.5 Velocity: 7 Heavy ball: 9 Touch: 7 Accuracy at all levels: 6.5 Quick release: 8		Background/character	9.37	Leadership: 10 Experience: 10 Off-field: 10 Durability: 7.5
Mechanics	8.17		Base: 8 Stride: 7 Shelf placement: 9 Motion: 8.5 Drops: 8.5 Release: 8		Mental Game	7.08	Poise: 8.5 Vision: 6.5 Progressions: 7 Decision making: 6.5 Pre-snap reads/adjustments: 6 Under pressure: 8
Athleticism	6.9		Pocket work: 7 Scramble/run: 7.5 Make contested throws: 6.5 Accuracy on the run/move: 7 Complete off-platform throws/different arm angles: 6.5
Pro comp: Ryan Tannehill
Projection: Mid 1st Round				Total Score: 7.37
SUMMARY

Watson and Co. entered the 2016 with heightened expectations and it was evident in their first two games of the season in which they were pressing far too much (Watson included) in close wins against Auburn and Troy. Nevertheless, Watson and the Tigers quickly found their grove and rolled to a 12-1 regular season capped by their second-straight ACC Title. The junior quarterback posted another banner year by completing 67.6 percent of his passes for 3,914 yards and 37 touchdowns against 15 interceptions; he also added another 524 and six on the ground en route to his second straight Heisman Trophy nomination.

Much was made about Watson’s interception total this season, but I doubt it will deter scouts and it shouldn’t: while he has thrown two more than last season, Watson nearly matched his 2015 completion percentage (67.8) while throwing four fewer passes in two less games. Case in point, the Tiger have relied on Watson to beat teams through the air and should they make it to the National Championship, he will likely surpass 550 attempts. Watson possesses arguably the best mechanics in this year’s class, properly keeping the ball high on the shelf with his elbow more down than out to create a tight, over-the-top release while executing a six-inch step and the ability to drive his hips through the release point for extra zip and torque. He is also an intelligent player who has made the proper pre-snap reads based on leverage. What truly sets Watson apart is his performances when the lights are shining the brightest, particularly his National Championship appearances against Alabama as he has yet to appear rattled in his three seasons and was not fazed at any point in said appearances despite taking a beating. One little nugget that impressed me was a Triple In-Flood read that Watson missed in the Auburn game that he rectified later at the goal line against Louisville, resulting in a touchdown.

While Clemson featured many man and zone beaters and Hi-Lo concepts that required Watson to make the correct pre- and post-snap read, far too often did he stare his read down and elect to make a more difficult throw than what was required; while he flashed the ability to stare safeties down and manipulate them, he will need to do so with more regularity. As for those struggles on his verticals throws, Watson remained consistent when adjusting his shoulder plane for optimal trajectory but failed to put the requisite weight transfer behind such throws to put the ball out in front at times in 2016. He has displayed the ability to drop those throws in the bucket, but Mike Williams often bailed Watson out on those vertical throws with his leaping ability and strength at the catch point. Rushing his feet also caused Watson to misplace easy throws at the underneath level. He is certainly subject to myriad different draft grades and projections, but I believe Watson has the tools and mental ability to develop into a quality starting quarterback sooner than later.

There’s no doubt Watson was had in 2016 with what defenses threw at him pre-snap, something that overwhelmed him because of his underdeveloped field vision and awareness. His physical capabilities present serious upside and will undoubtedly translate well to the next level, but he will be tasked with making more full-field reads that will test his field vision and ability to go through his progressions in a hurry; however, they are correctable aspects along with his minor technical flaws and inconsistencies.

NAME: Myles Garrett		HT: 6’4”  WT: 273		POS: DE	SCHOOL: Texas A&M
2016 Stats: 33 tackles, 15 TFL, 8.5 sacks and two FF				Career Stats: 141 tackles, 47 TFL, 31 sacks and seven FF
STRENGTHS				WEAKNESSES
• Body-beautiful athlete with minimal body fat and noticeable muscles • Off-the-charts athleticism with equal power • Offers positional versatility having lined up as a 5 and 7-Tech and Wide 9 • Can squeeze inside and utilize his strong hands to shed blockers and locate the ball • Strong rip move when slanting inside • Rare quick twitch and lower-body flexibility • Understands pad level and leverage; lower-body strength that halts down blocks and holds ground at the POA • Combination of lightening quick first step and ability to run the arc before flattening his path • Tremendous burst off the ball gets him on top of tackles in an instance and takes away angles • Quick feet and active upper half allow him to work off and around • Elite stride length after initial step to cover ground and beat tackles to the edge • Refined ability to corner or fight to come underneath the arc if he ends up high • Incredible closing burst, finishing with power				•  Won’t consistently play with a sense of urgency in his run fits •  Inconsistent first step quickness; will try to guess rather than time the snap • Lacks a consistent plan as a pass rusher, looking to win with strength and speed over layered moves • Plays with reckless abandon, but needs to harness it; will rush too far up field and engage in taffy pull •  Needs to unlock explosive hip snap to leverage blockers to prevent being moved from his gap •  Knee injury limited him in the early portions of the 2016 campaign
POSITION TRAITS
TRAIT	RATING		SUMMARY	TRAIT	RATING	SUMMARY
Athleticism	8.75		Flexibility/bend: 8.5 Build: 9.5 COD: 8 Explosiveness: 9	Background/character	9.25	Leadership: 10 Experience: 9 Off-field: 10 Durability: 8
Intangibles	8.67		Motor: 7 Play-strength: 9 Tackling: 9.5 Aggressiveness: 8.5 First step: 9.5 Recognition: 8.5	Against the Run	8.08	Read-and-react: 8.5 Pursuit: 9 Gap integrity: 8 Stack-and-shed: 7.5 Range: 9 Set a hard edge: 6.5
Against the Pass	8.42		Hand usage: 8 Counter moves: 8 Refined moves: 7.5 Push the pocket: 9 Vs. double teams: 8.5 Speed rush: 9.5
Pro comp: Mario Williams
Projection: Top 5				Total Score: 8.48
SUMMARY

Garrett has some of the best genes in this year’s class. His mother, Audrey, was a 60-meter hurdles All-American at Hampton in 1982, his sister, Brea, captured the 2014 NCAA indoor championship in the weight throw as a junior at A&M, while brother Sean was a six-year NBA vet. Myles started as a true freshman where all he did was sack the quarterback 11.5 times as a Freshman All-American. Following that stellar campaign, Garrett popped, making 19.5 behind the line and racking up 12.5 sacks and five forced fumbles. He was named a first-team All-American in 2016 as he tallied 15 TFL and 8.5 sacks despite missing four starts.

Regardless of where he is eventually drafted, Garrett is far and away the best prospect in the 2017 draft class, and one of the best we’ve seen in quite some time. Humans aren’t built the way he is with the combination of power, strength, twitch and quickness that is bestowed upon him. What’s most impressive was how efficiently he blended those traits with his technique to create a truly dominant player. When scouting prospects, it’s important for the production to match the tape; if he’s dominating on the field, the stat line should be indicative of such-and it absolutely was with Garrett. What’s more, there was undeniable growth in his game from his freshman season until now, and he played through a nagging injury without compromising his production.

An incredible talent, Garrett is not without fault. He is unrefined in his run fits as he will stack and ride blocks late into the down, signaling his lack of urgency at times. Like most players with next-level strength and power, there are times where Garrett will look to win with said traits rather than his technique and pure moves. There’s a very strong possibility his loafs were a result of the knee injury, so there isn’t heavy emphasis placed on that aspect of his evaluation, but he will need to check his play speed at times to prevent washing himself out of plays.

His traits make it difficult to determine where he will play, but he is unquestionably athletic to the point that he doesn’t need to be pigeon-holed. The aforementioned quartet of base traits would certainly serve him well off the ball in the 3-4 or as a tilted Wide 9 in a 4-3; either way, defensive players with versatile skillsets are highly coveted in the NFL.

The Ideal Landing Spots for the NFL Draft’s Top Quarterbacks

NFL Draft analysts are a fickle group when it comes to quarterbacks. As we inch ever so closely to the draft, the vast majority of us have eliminated the disconnect between our analyzation of this year’s top quarterback prospects.

There are no standardized rankings that we can pigeonhole these passers into, but such rankings are likely to feature Mitchell Trubisky, Patrick Mahomes, DeShone Kizer and Deshaun Watson. Each offer varied skillsets that will provide a seamless transition into specific systems, and I will break them down here.

Deshaun Watson

I start with Watson because he is my top-rated quarterback, and has been since before the draft process began. The opinions regarding Watson vary because of how tantalizing his evaluation is, performing like a top passer before some annoying aspects occur. Regardless, I’m willing to take his bad with the good because his peaks are higher than his valleys are low. The notion that Watson doesn’t read defenses is absurd considering the fact that NFL offenses feature man and zone beaters and full field reads that Clemson incorporated. However, Watson’s early playing time relative to where he’s drafted is important to consider if he’s a high first pick as those guys are seen as immediate plug-and-play players.

Case in point, he would be best suited to play in Hue Jackson’s system with the Cleveland Browns should they select him with the 12th pick and surround him with a deep threat in Corey Coleman, an X-receiver that can work at all three levels in Terrelle Pryor and an above-average tight end who can work in the red zone in Gary Barnidge.

Jackson is a great offensive mind who ties pre-snap shifts and motions into a multitude of different formations and personnel sets. While all passing offenses create one-two-three progression reads, they’re much easier to work through when you employ the variety Jackson does. The play design ultimately determines where the quarterback goes with the ball, and with a quarterback as intelligent as Watson, you’re able to stay on schedule and drastically mitigate the amount of bad decisions that can be had.

Patrick Mahomes

The Texas Tech quarterback is as polarizing as they come with the Air Raid stigma and never-ending, pressing issue of his mechanics hovering around his stock, but let’s discuss both. Contrary to belief, Air Raid concepts are commonplace in NFL passing games and don’t let anyone tell you differently; the issue with taking very little snaps under center is notable, but Air Raid coaches will tell you that their quarterbacks take countless snaps there during practice and are adept at doing such. Mahomes’ mechanics are certainly less than ideal and some aspects need tweaking (not necessarily overhaul), but it’s what works for him and has led to very few poor outcomes.

It remains to be seen what the New York Jets will do with their quarterback situation, but the Ryan Fitzpatrick experiment failed miserably and it’s clear that they don’t trust Geno Smith or Christian Hackenberg, so them sitting six and taking a quarterback is any level of feasible you can envision. Offensive coordinator Chan Gailey retired in January, leading to the hiring of Saints receiver’s coach John Morton. Both teams share identical systematic ideas — save for the Saints’ desire to stress the seams and the middle of the field — so expect to see quite a few of the same formations and sets.

Under Gailey in 2015, the Jets went four-wide roughly one-third of the time, the most in the league. The Saints’ system was predicated on unbalanced three-wide sets that created mismatches for their slot receivers on linebackers. When you spread a defense out as such, they have to account for this and spread simultaneously, making it far more difficult to disguise blitzes and coverage rolls. These widened throwing lanes become well-defined throwing lanes that forces quarterbacks to be aware of where they’re going pre-snap, an aspect of Mahomes’ game that he has showcased as an anticipatory thrower with good field vision.

Mitchell Trubisky

It may have taken him longer than he wished to see the field, but Trubisky waited patiently for two years before guiding the Tar Heels’ offense to eight wins. He has been the center of discussion during the draft and has been widely accepted as the class’ top quarterback, but he graded out as a high second-rounder for me who will be a quality starter in the NFL.

Much has been made about the San Francisco Niners snagging Trubisky with the second overall pick, and would prove to be a seamless transition. However, his most ideal fit would be with the Kansas City Chiefs. Quarterback isn’t their biggest need, but it is a need nonetheless as Alex Smith enters the third year of a hefty four-year, $68 million contract that will provide the Chiefs with a whopping $20.6 million cap hit in 2018. Smith will be 35 years old following the final season of his contract and news came out last month that the Chiefs are not interested in picking up Nick Foles’ option. General Manager John Dorsey has publicly shared his belief that this crop of quarterbacks is not ready to play or worthy of a top-10 pick. With that said, Trubisky is familiar with waiting for his chance, and it could be a perfect marriage.

Andy Reid runs a West Coast-based system predicated on being versatile and controlling the ball. Trubisky has a bigger arm and is a similar athlete, but the two still draw parallels and would allow Trubisky to thrive. This system incorporates a full route tree and a variety of formations that require quarterbacks to be concise and deliberate with their reads while featuring a bevy of underneath routes that create opportunities to generate offense, aspects Trubisky has mastered. Reid is a great play designer who can attack specific coverage, but over time Smith has struggled to target tight windows at the intermediate level with notable struggles maneuvering the pocket — issues unlike his potential successor. 

DeShone Kizer

Finally, we get to Kizer, the former Notre Dame passer who visibly regressed from 2015 to 2016. Kizer publicly admitted he lost confidence as a freshman, and likely suffered a lull in his abilities this past season when head coach Brian Kelly benched him for former starter Malik Zaire and criticized Kizer’s play following an embarrassing loss to Duke in which the signal caller threw for 381 yards and two touchdowns (against one interception) and lead the team with 60 rushing yards and another score on the ground. Kizer’s size will enamor most teams, but his regression and lack of confidence affected all aspects of his play.

Kizer’s big arm, ability to stay throw-ready, hang tough in pressure and read the whole field would be best suited in the Arizona Cardinals’ aerial attack that likes to stretch the field. Incumbent Carson Palmer completed 63 percent of his passes and threw for more than 4,000 yards in his first year in Arizona but also posted a 24:22 TD:INT ratio a year before tearing his ACL six games into the season. He came back strong in 2015, but took a leap back this past season. He recently signed a one-year extension with receiver Larry Fitzgerald which is a strong indicator that both will be calling it quits after this season. Behind the 37-year-old are Zac Dysert and Drew Stanton, average backups with very limited starting potential.

Because they love to go empty and threaten the defense with a bevy of options, quarterbacks in their system have to be prepared for five-on-five or defensive plus-ones, both aspects that support the defense’s desire to get to the quarterback. Kizer has done a good job recognizing these pre-snap looks and understands that he has to get the ball out in a hurry when pressure is bearing down; when he has more time, it doesn’t quite look the same. To help mitigate these concerns, Bruce Arians and Co. incorporate five- and seven-step drops off of play-action in which the running back will stay in to protect while Palmer’s 10.8 yards per attempt off of PA in 2015 ranked second in the NFL.

The system is essentially an Air Coryell-based system that features intermediate-deep attacks with backside options that manipulate the one-on-one matchups the heavy reliance of 3×1 sets manufactures, while going empty gives the defense four to play five. Quarterbacks have to be adept at working through the progressions and understand that the majority of the deep shots are naturally going to come off of play action. It would serve Kizer well to sit behind Palmer for a year and learn the nuances of the system, while Mahomes could certainly be in play at pick 13 if they don’t wish to spend a second rounder on the Fighting Irish quarterback.