(Completed 2/16/15)
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Marcus Mariota, QB (Oregon)- Whether it be Mariota or Florida State's Jameis Winston, a quarterback will be taken number one overall for the seventh time in the last decade. Systematically, Winston may be the better choice due to his successful operation of Jimbo Fisher's pro style, 10/11/12 personnel offense. The Bucs are in need of a field general with the ability to stretch the field with Vincent Jackson and get the ball to second year phenom Mike Evans on their intermediate to long routes and in the red zone, along with their big-bodied touchdown threat of a tight end, Austin Seferian-Jenkins. Both quarterbacks have the tool set and ability to do so, although Winston was asked to do more of it during his two year career; both are also exceptional at throwing on the run. While Mariota was labeled as a "system guy" who can't "throw his receivers open," he often didn't need to due to his fantastic ability to move defenders with his eyes, allowing guys to break open on their routes and still get hit in stride. His inability to "throw guys open" stems from the age of his receiving core, as they were often late getting out of breaks or getting jammed at the line; that portion of his game was not a flaw the prior year having played with experienced guys such as Josh Huff and Bralon Addison. Mariota also possess far greater pocket presence, having been sacked only been sacked 16 times behind an offensive line that featured at least five different starters across the board all year, while Winston typically gets "happy feet" and shows signs of frustration once the pocket collapses. Mariota and Winston both have quick releases and get the ball out on time, although Winston, particularly in 2014, forced a lot his throws leading to turn overs. Having seen the off-field battles with a guy like Johnny Manziel, Tampa Bay may also think twice about making a guy with questionable character their franchise quarterback. Watch for the Eagles, with 16 picks between this year's and next year's draft to trade up to take Mariota; it has also been reported that Tampa is leaning to taking Mariota.
2. Tennessee Titans: Jameis Winston, QB (Florida State)- Given Ken Wisenhunt's opposition to rookie quarterbacks, don't be surprised if they go in a different direction with Leonard Williams or trade the pick to the Jets, who are in desperate need of a quarterback. However, Winston seems like the most reasonable choice. Despite Wisenhunt's backing of current starter Zach Mettenberger, I don't see him becoming their franchise guy; he had some solid performances but more often than not, he looked and played like a sixth round pick (he failed to win a game as a starter, going 0-6). The verdict is also out on Jake Locker, their 2011 first round pick who has yet to play a full season, let alone more than 11 games in a single season (played in only 30 of 64 games between 2011-2014). Case in point, the Titans can't progress with their options at quarterback. Throw in the huge talent gap between Winston and the next quarterback prospect (UCLA's Brett Hundley), and you have a surefire choice. The Titans also have young talent at running back and wide receiver that will utilize Winston's huge arm, ability to throw on the run and usage of check downs. Should they pass on a quarterback, USC's Leonard Williams would be a great selection.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars: Leonard Williams, DE (USC)- Leonard Williams is undoubtedly the best prospect in this year's class. A Richard Seymour and JJ Watt prototype, Williams addresses the Jaguars' glaring need of a pass rusher. At 6'4", 291 pounds, is the perfect choice for the Jaguars' use of bigger 4-3 defensive ends who pride themselves on rushing the quarterback in a manner similar to Seattle. Williams has an uncanny nose for the ball and explosive first step, while being clocked at 4.8 in the forty. His massive frame and long arms allow him to interrupt passing lanes and potentially drop into coverage, a task in which he posses the athleticism to do so. Williams will join a unit that finished in the bottom half of the league in points and yards allowed in 2014, but is filled with talented players on the line in Ryan Davis (averaged an impact play every 23 snaps according to Pro Football Focus, a rate better than JJ Watt), Chris Clemons (eight sacks and four forced fumbles), and Sen'Derrick Marks (8.5 sacks and 15 tackles for loss, second and third amongst interior linemen respectively). Although GM Gus Bradley has expressed his intent to re-sign Tyson Alualu, Williams would be another addition to a set of pass rushers who finished sixth in the league in total sacks, and could duplicate Alualu's productivity against the run.
4. Oakland Raiders: Amari Cooper, WR (Alabama)- At the end of the day, this is still the Oakland Raiders. The same team that has failed to have a single receiver eclipse 1,000 yards since 2005. The same team that passed on Larry Fitzgerald, Aaron Rodgers, Calvin Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Clay Matthews, Dez Bryant, and Earl Thomas between 2004-2012 (thus accumulating a 49-111 record during that time period). Assuming Cooper is still on the board at the number four spot, this is a can't miss prospect. Cooper's size (6'1", 210 pounds) and play rival that of Torry Holt and Marvin Harrison's, possessing Holt's speed and jumping ability and Harrison's precise route running and ability to make every catch within reach. Week in and week out, Cooper dominated some of the best defensive backs in the country, finishing with 124 catches, 1,727 yards and 16 TDs, one of the best receiving seasons since Texas Techs' Michael Crabtree in 2007. Alabama asked him to do a multitude of things, whether it be a possession guy using his mix of length to get tough first downs, stretch the field, or create big plays. With a future star and franchise quarterback in Derek Carr, and very little help around him, Cooper has the ability to come in and have an impact similar to Sammy Watkins last year (Odell Beckham was the standard for rookie receivers last season, but their skill sets and style of play greatly differ).
5. Washington Redskins: Shane Ray, DE (Missouri)- After finishing 19th in sack percentage (6.9) and 21st in sacks (36) the previous year, the Redskins are in dire need of an explosive pass rusher opposite Ryan Kerrigan. With hybrid linebacker/defensive end Brian Orakpo available for free agency, Ray is the ideal selection at the fifth spot. Slightly undersized for a 3-4 defensive end (6'3", 245 lbs. compared to Kerrigan at 6'4, 260 lbs.), Ray is arguably the most NFL-ready amongst pass rushers in this class. A Von Miller-type product, Ray's explosiveness and speed off the edge lead to a school record 12 sacks and 22.5 tackles for loss, tops in the SEC. He played a consistently high level (recorded at least a half-sack in 11 of 14 games this and two sacks in five separate games) while often times fighting double teams. Ray's strength and motor were on display when he shifted inside and was able to get push up the field or chase the quarterback down from behind; seldom gives up on plays has a innate nose for the ball. Fast hands when taking on one-on-one blocks on the edge allow him to be in position to get to the quarterback faster than most.
6. New York Jets: Brandon Scherrf, G (Iowa)- On paper, this is not a popular pick. Geno Smith does not appear to the guy in New York, along with aged veteran Michael Vick. Smith is entering his third year of his 4 year, $5.01 million dollar contract, and releasing him would cost the Jets $1.36 million. An aging Willie Colon's 1 year, $2 million contract is up, making him a free agent that I don't envision New York wanting to resign; he's played or started in only 65 percent of the games throughout his nine year career and had received a bad rating from Pro Football Focus (the player had to be on the field for at least 250 snaps). Scherrf is an exceptional talent who has the ability to come in and play right away. While many project him making the switch to tackle, he would better suited to replace Colon at left guard and boost a line that faces three formidable defensive lines twice a year within the AFC East. A weight room warrior, Scherrf is far and away the best offensive line prospect in the country. His ability to reach second level blocks and drive defenders downfield are unmatched, and displayed incredible speed and power when pulling and opening running lanes while pancaking numerous defenders. Scherrf also displayed excellent footwork and placement when he shifted to left tackle; if you haven't already, watch him absolutely manhandle top prospect Randy Gregory from Nebraska. With a defensive minded head coach in Todd Bowels set to take over, Gregory is also a strong possibility here at number six.
7. Chicago Bears: Landon Collins, S (Alabama)- After a good run in 2013, Chicago's offense woes, particularly starting quarterback Jay Cutler, were the catalyst of a 5-11 season. The defense didn't play much better, ranking 30th and 31st in yards allowed and points allowed respectively. Unlike the offensive personnel, the Bears paid big dollars for older defenders: $11.8 million for defensive back Tim Jennings (31), who played in all 16 games but failed to intercept a single pass, and Jared Allen (32) who reeled in $15.5 million for only 5.5 sacks last season. In the secondary, starting safety Chris Conte was on the field for only 44 percent of the Bears defensive snaps last season and has had a career plagued by injuries, making the Bears' desire to resign him unlikely. Collins is the ideal choice and one of the best prospects in this class, who will also have the chance to contribute immediately much like he did at Alabama due to the Bears' lack of experience in the defensive backfield. His excellent range and speed allow him to play hash mark-to-sideline perhaps better than any player in this class in addition to his playmaking ability. Collins also plays downhill and aggressive against the run while never shying away from delivering big hits. He projects as a strong safety in the NFL and will be an asset to defensive coordinator Vic Fangio who actively rebuilt the 49ers defense and used his safeties in blitzes and contain against the run. In order to tap all of his potential, Collins must improve his open field tackling. Other possibilities at number seven include Washington's Danny Shelton and Gregory.
8. Atlanta Falcons: Randy Gregory, DE (Nebraska)- The Falcons finished 6-10 and missed the playoffs for the second consecutive year, prompting owner Arthur Blank to move on from head coach Mike Smith. Atlanta tabbed Seattle Seahawks defensive coordinator Dan Quinn as their head man who should be able to improve a putrid defensive performance in 2014: 31st in sacks (22) and Adjusted Sack Rate (4.5) and last in passing yards per game allowed (279.9) and third down conversion (48.8 percent). At 6'6, Gregory is a great fit for Quinn's 4-3 defense. His quick, long arms allow him to press linemen and create separation, giving him the ability to keep his eyes on the backfield and not make any wasted movements. In a talented class of defensive linemen, Gregory is arguably the most explosive off the line and has that rare blend of speed and power off the edge that makes him a nightmare to block; very good athlete and should be seen dropping into coverage much like Quinn's defensive ends in Seattle. A top five talent, Gregory often plays tall, a trait that will be a downfall in the NFL against larger, faster offensive linemen. Gregory is also listed at 240, which is rather light for a 4-3 defensive end; some close to the program say he was as low as 225 at one point. His weight would project him as a 3-4 outside linebacker, so it should motivate him to put on more weight before the combine.
9. New York Giants: Dante Fowler, DE (Florida)- With Jason Pierre-Paul as a free agent, Robert Ayers recovering from injury, and a lack of depth at the D-Line position, Fowler seems like a great choice here. At 6'3", 272 pounds Fowler was an absolute monster at Florida last year registering 10 tackles for loss. His explosiveness allows him to get his hands on or around offensive linemen arguably better than anyone in this class. Fowler displays great athleticism and excellent body control, putting himself in situations to force sacks or ball carriers in the opposite direction, while his agility and speed for someone his size are unbelievable. At the next level, Fowler will have to temper his desire to go for kill shots in the backfield has it occasionally lead to whiffs on ball carriers. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo will be fortunate enough to have a player who played everywhere on the line at Florida and also dropped into coverage. Fowler could go early at number eight should Gregory be selected before Atlanta picks; Quinn was Florida's defensive line coach during Fowler's freshman year.
10. St. Louis Rams: Kevin White, WR (West Virginia)- St. Louis hit two monstrous homeruns in the draft last, selecting the left tackle of the future in Greg Robinson and defensive tackle Aaron Donald, the Rams' most impactful player last season. Many expect them to address the quarterback need in the first round, but both Winston and Mariota are out of the picture; should either drop, the lowest I see them going is number six to the Jets. The next best quarterback in my eyes, Brett Hundley, is not a first round talent, on top of the fact that head coach Jeff Fisher has made it known that Bradford will continue to be the guy, seeing as though they're paying him too much not to be in addition to the Rams' lack of depth. Up front, the Rams are expected to let Davin Joseph and Scott Wells walk, having been unproductive and underachieving: Joseph missed three games last year and was rated as one of Pro Football Focus' worst guards while Wells played in only one full season since 2012 with the Rams and was Pro Football Focus' worst center last season; he also takes up $4 million in cap, the same amount that talented free agent center Stefan Wisniewski is seeking. Although some expect Stanford tackle Andrus Peat to be chosen here, he is a pure left tackle whom St. Louis does not need. White, a poor man's Julio Jones, is an absolute speed demon with quick feet. His ability to set defensive backs up with his footwork, and then proceed to blow by them down the sideline are magnificent and rival that of another Mountaineer now suiting up for St. Louis. While his game is not as polished and did not play in more of a pro style passing attack like Cooper or even Louisville's DeVante Parker, White has shown his ability to go up top and catch the ball at its highest point and use his strong hands to make difficult catches. White's best attribute however is what he does after the catch. At 6'3", 210 pounds, White is deceptively fast and has "game speed (for those of you unfamiliar with the term, turn on his highlights against Oklahoma and Maryland)." White is an ideal weapon for Bradford, a big bodied player maker that can stretch the field. Look for the Rams to possibly go with LSU left tackle La'el Collins with this pick as an alternative.
11. Minnesota Vikings: DeVante Parker, WR (Louisville)- Minnesota doesn't necessarily need help everywhere, but there are many positions they could upgrade. I begin with left tackle, where former fan favorite Matt Khalil was heavily scrutinized by Pro Football Focused as he was credited with allowing 12 sacks and 36 hurries, despite playing on a surgically repaired knee that was never 100 percent. GM Rick Spielman has backed Khalil however and intends to keep him next year. Washington linebacker Shaq Thompson appeared to be a real possibility here, but the undersized and unproven prospect doesn't have a designated position; scouts see him as a linebacker or safety, and even possibly a running back. The running back is also a position of need as Matt Asiata was given a poor grade by Pro Football Focus last season as Jerick McKinnion will need a solid number two. At the end of the day though, quarterback Teddy Bridgewater needs weapons and who better than his former Louisville teammate. While Cordarrelle Patterson is the most talented of the bunch, Greg Jennings simply isn't what he used to be at 31 years old. The rest of the group is filled with unknowns Jarius Wright and Charles Johnson, making wide receiver an easy choice here. In only six games last season due to injury, Parker absolutely dominated by recording 43 receptions for 855 yards and five touchdowns; had he played a full season he more than likely would have become a Biletnikoff Award finalist. His measurables (6'3", 209 lbs.) are NFL caliber, as are fade and jump ball abilities. Parker is arguably the best prospect in this class at not being out-jumped or out-muscled when the ball is the air. His body control and ability to adjust to any pass are tremendous and perhaps his greatest trait (i.e. his over-the-shoulder catch against Florida in the 2013 Sugar Bowl), as he was truly a receiver that you can "just throw the ball up to" and expect him to make an acrobatic catch (2013 vs. Cincinnati, watch it. Seriously). Parker is equally impressive after the catch, using his burst and long strides to run by defenders. At the next level, he will be asked to run more short to intermediate routes much more often than he was at Louisville, something he will have to adapt to and will cause him to sharpen his route running; he will also not be able to run past defenders much like he was able to in college. Parker will also have to work on catching the ball once rather than bobbling it and trying to bring it down.
12. Cleveland Browns: Vic Beasley, DE/OLB (Clemson)- The circus that was the Cleveland Browns last year was far better than most remember. They finished only one game below .500 with disastrous quarterback play and had nine players who had "elite" or "good" years according to Pro Football Focus, seventh best in the NFL. After passing on Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans, and Odell Beckham Jr. last season, drafting a wide receiver seems like an absolute must. What many fail to realize is that Cleveland is expected to have $52.4 million dollars in cap space entering this season, third amongst all teams, and with an incredibly deep group of wide receivers set to test the free agent market this off season, Cleveland has a wonderful opportunity to sign at least two of those talented, experienced receivers as opposed to drafting a young guy. Not to mention, Cleveland's current group of wideouts is extremely productive: of those nine players were Taylor Gabriel (17.3 yards per catch as an undrafted rookie) and Andrew Hawkins (694 yards by week 12. Through the last four weeks, the Browns averaged a terrible 150.2 passing yards per game as Hawkins finished just 176 yards shy of 1,000). The Browns also have an elite tight end who feel victim to a concussion and the poor quarterback play as well. Defensively, the Browns had a phenomenal year, considering they were responsible for keeping the games close. The outside linebackers struggled however, registering only 15 sacks, 11 of which were from a single player (Paul Kruger). Beasley seems like the ideal fit in Jim O'Neil's hybrid defense as he himself is a hybrid player, a 4-3 edge rusher who can play Will or Sam (similar to Bruce Irvin and Vonn Miller) or 3-4 outside linebacker who can walk down, rush the edge, or play the gaps. At a slender 236 pounds, Beasley isn't going to physically dominate offensive lineman, and should realistically put on upwards of 10-15 pounds. Where he makes his living his speed and angle off the line, using his quickness to put linemen out of position and then sliding underneath, them making himself virtually unblockable. He also uses his hands and swim move better than any other prospect, thus allowing him to get to the quarterback where he does his damage the most. Beasley's long arms allow him to knock the ball out of the quarterback's arm and force fumbles, something he did countless times at Clemson; when he doesn't reach the quarterback, he uses his speed to chase them down from behind before they have time to get their roll out progressions established. With Josh Gordon's year long suspension and safety Tashaun Gipson being the lone player seeking a lucrative extension, I can't find many reasons why Cleveland doesn't go after any of the free agents at wide receiver. They also have two first round picks in the 2015 draft, so watch for them to possibly trade up for Mariota or Winston.
13. New Orleans Saints: Trae Waynes, CB (Michigan State)- As what seems to constantly be the case for New Orleans, their struggles came on the defensive side of the ball. They forked out $12.3 million with a guaranteed $6 million in 2015 for free agent safety Jairus Byrd, who played only four games last year (missed the other 12 due to injury). His backfield mate Kenny Vaccaro had an alarmingly disappointing year, missing 19 tackles (according to Pro Football Focus) and giving up big plays throughout the season in an attempt to become a true strong safety. Defensive back Keenan Lewis was an absolute lock down corner who shut down the likes of Dez Bryant and Jordy Nelson. The Saints however lack a talented number two and three corner, and don't quite have enough salary cap space to sign a free agent. Waynes is a talented product out of Michigan State who likens himself to Al Harris, and rightfully so. At 6'1", 182 pounds (Harris was also 6'1" and weighed 194), Waynes is an exceptional athlete with fluid hips. He can turn and run very smoothly, allowing him to cover receivers tightly and run with them down the field due to his great speed. What separates him from other corners is his play making ability. Much like Seattle's Richard Sherman, Waynes uses his length to snag any ball away from the receiver and gets his head and body around quick enough to put himself in perfect position to make a play; my favorite quality of Waynes' is his lack of fear when putting his facemask into ball carriers when tackling. Also does a solid job of wrapping up, but will have to put on at least 20 pounds to take down NFL backs. New Orleans is also in need of a pass rusher from the linebacker spot, so look for them to target Kentucky's Alvin Dupree or Shelton, a talented 3-4 defensive tackle.
14. Miami Dolphins: Danny Shelton, DT (Washington)- Although Miami isn't a team with a ton of needs, I can still see this pick going a number of different ways. There's speculation that Miami's in the market for a true number two to play opposite of Brent Grimes, making Shelton's teammate Marcus Peters or Waynes (if he's still available) feasible possibilities. Mike Pouncey is expected to move back to center in which I envision the Dolphins going after free agents Dan Connolly or Mike Iupati to fill the void. They are also looking to upgrade their linebacker spot: in two seasons with the Dolphins, Dannell Ellerbe has accumulated just one sack and two interceptions, numbers that are not nearly enough for the $8.5 million he's being paid. They are also paying $3 million for a guy in Phillip Wheeler who registered a paltry 2014 stat line: 45 total tackles, no interceptions or sacks. They did find value in their fourth round selection Jelani Jenkins who led the team with 110 tackles, and they could address in the later rounds again. Ultimately however, Miami needs a presence at defensive tackle after allowing 165 rushing yards between weeks 12-17. With Jared Odrick as a free agent unexpected to return and Randy Starks expected to be released as a result of his $6 million cap hit and lack of production, Shelton seems to be the most reasonable selection. At 6'2", 332 pounds, he is not a prototypical 4-3 tackle and doesn't quite have the pass rush ability for Miami's 4-3 defense. However, I don't them to ask much of Shelton in regards of rushing the passing, rather using his thick frame to stop the run and plug gaps. With a low repertoire of pass rush moves, Shelton relies on his size and incredible strength to move linemen and bull rush the quarterback. Shelton runs very well for someone his size and never gives up on plays, a trait that was on display against Arizona and Oregon as he chased down the like of Mariota, Royce Freeman, and Anu Solomon; his speed should translate well to the NFL.
15. San Francisco 49ers: Jaelen Strong, WR (Arizona State)- Finishing 8-8 and missing the playoffs was a failure by the Niners' standards and it started at the top. Former head coach Jim Harbaugh and owner Jed York were in turmoil throughout the season as Harbaugh was ultimately shown a lack of support. The defense suffered serious setbacks when NaVorro Bowman and Patrick Willis went down with injuries. Defensive end Justin Smith struggled last year as well (his 20 run stops were tied for 15th in the league among 3-4 defensive ends last season), and at the age of 35, many believe this could be his final season. Offensively, Frank Gore continued to be a staple of the Niners' offense, recording his eighth career 1,000 yard season and alleviating pressure off of quarterback Colin Kaepernick. In regards to Kaepernick, his production dipped heavily from 2013, finishing 24th in the league in completion percentage (60.5), 17th in QBR (55.9 in 2014, 68.6 in 2013), and was the most sacked quarterback in the NFL, who you have to believe receives most of the blame as someone who does his damage escaping the pocket. Pro Football Focus rated him 18th out of 27 qualified quarterbacks in overall accuracy (drops, throwaways, and spikes did not count). Wide receiver Michael Crabtree is expected to test the waters in free agency and Anquan Boldin will enter his 12th season will turn 35 by the time playoffs roll around; his receptions, yards, and touchdowns dropped between 2013 and 2014 as his amount of targets were nearly the same amount in the same period (130 in 2013, 131 in 2014). With Boldin's age beginning to cut into his production, another big bodied, strong-handed receiver would suit Kaep nicely. Strong is 6'3", 215 pounds and posses long arms and soft hands; his one-handed touchdown reception against Notre Dame was marvelous. Aptly named, Strong isn't going to blow past defenders or make them miss in the open field. He uses his huge frame and length to out muscle and out jump defensive backs to make acrobatic catches; after the catch, he is difficult to bring down as he shakes off defenders and sometimes requires two or three to bring him down. While he does not possess blazing speed, Strong's long strides allow him to run very well for someone his size, making him a true deep threat the Niners are in need of. His body control, intertwined with his reach, make him a serious jump-ball threat. At the next level, he will need to sharpen his route running ability and eliminate his tendency to his body to catch passes rather then extending his arms. Strong is a raw talent with a very high ceiling that the Niners need after making Kaepernick their quarterback of the future with a $126 million extension. Shelton (if still available), Dupree, and Texas defensive tackle Malcom Brown are also possible choices to help bolster their front seven.
16. Houston Texans: Malcom Brown, DT (Texas)- Houston started four different quarterbacks and still finished 9-7 despite missing the postseason, due in large part to all-everything JJ Watt. This pick appears to be the best choice for a number of reasons: with an estimated $10 million in cap space, the Texans are in a position financially to sign a top receiver from the free agent class; Deandre Hopkins has solidified himself as the new number one after Andre Johnson saw a significant drop in production (936 yards in 15 games, the lowest amount in as many games since his rookie season in 2003) and may be in his final season as a Texan as he is a $16 million cap hit. The Texans are also in need of another pass rusher after Watt's monumental season. Brown is an ideal fit for the Texans' 3-4 system at 6'4", 320 pounds, an absolute behemoth. As one can imagine, he does not get pushed or moved around easily. With his blend of size and strength, Brown strikes linemen violently and bench presses them, allowing himself to push the pocket. Fights double teams exceptionally by using athleticism and agility to get between them. Has the ability to redirect and chase down the ball carrier; hits and tackles with sheer power, while playing low for someone of his girth. Sinks hips very well when playing against the run. Brown will need to develop an array of pass rush moves at the next level to become a successful pass rusher in a three-tech. Offensive linemen will also be bigger and stronger at the next level, and simply relying on strength will not get the job done. Should Houston choose to forgo signing a free agent wide receiver, any of the afore chosen receivers still on the board are possible selections here. Waynes, Collins (Alabama), or Florida State's P.J. Williams are other viable options if either is still available as three of Houston's impactful free agents reside in the secondary (Kareem Jackson, Daniel Manning, and Kendrick Lewis); another possible defensive tackle choice here is Florida State's Eddie Goldman
17. San Diego Chargers: Alvin Dupree, OLB (Kentucky)- San Diego struck gold when they able to sign defensive back Brandon Flowers to a one year deal worth $3 million. He recorded three interceptions and 10 pass breakups in 14 games, while also helping the Chargers finish fourth in pass yards allowed after finishing 29th in 2013; with an estimated $25 million in cap space, it's hard to imagine they won't grant him an extension. It would be wise for San Diego to use some of that available cap space to rebuild their offensive line. Left tackle King Dunlap will become an unrestricted free agent, and after allowing only three sacks in 1,000 snaps this year (and a quarterback in Phillip Rivers), one can imagine he is the Chargers' top priority. However, five different players played center this season and another three received time at guard. The Chargers have enough money to try to sign guys like Iupati, Rob Sims, or Wisniewski; the guard/center class is very talented. On the other side of the ball, Dwight Freeney is a free agent and San Diego could save $5 million against the cap but cutting Jarret Johnson, who recorded only one sack in 2014. Fellow outside linebackers Melvin Ingram and Jeremiah Attaochu weren't much more productive as they recorded a combined six sacks. After finishing 29th in sacks last season, Dupree is a talent that can contribute immediately. A superb athlete (6'4", 264 pounds and runs a 4.6 40), Dupree can play both defensive end or outside linebacker. His quick twitch muscles allow him to consistently be in position to make a play on the ball or set himself up for easy tackles and violent hits on the ball carrier that creates turnovers. He can bend very well for someone his size and can get around pass blockers very well; uses his long arms to get to the quarterback and swat the "ball off the shelf." Very high motor guy who loves the weight room (put on 15 pounds between his freshman and senior year), but will need to get stronger to succeed at the next level. He will not be able to man handle tight ends and fullbacks in the NFL like he did at Kentucky. Stanford's Andrus Peat, Pittsburgh's T.J. Clemmings, Collins (LSU), Scherff or a running back are possibilities here if they are still available and if San Diego is unable to resign Dunlap; Ryan Matthews is a free agent whom the Chargers have not expressed a great deal of interest in bringing back and Branden Oliver is fairly unproven, making talented prospects Melvin Gordon and Todd Gurley very possible choices here.
18. Kansas City Chiefs: Andrus Peat, OT (Stanford)- I know just about everyone expects the Chiefs to draft a receiver here (Michigan's Devin Funchess, Auburn's Sammie Coats, or Green-Beckham are all real possibilities), but Kansas City was still competitive despite ranking last in targets, receptions, yards, and touchdowns (0). Alex Smith has proven himself as a winner and a guy who plays smart football, and they need to keep him up right. Center Rodney Hudson is set to become a free agent and they lost three key starters to free agency in 2013. Jake Fisher, the first overall pick in the 2013 draft, made the move to left tackle last season, resulting in a putrid performance: Pro Football Focus ranked him 72nd of 84 eligible left tackles; he and left guard Mike McGlynn also allowed a combined 13 sacks. Should Kansas City select Peat (or LSU's Collins), it would allow Fisher to move to right tackle where he should have more of an impact. At 312, Peat is very lean for someone standing at 6'7". Subsequently, it can be his downfall as he occasionally stands straight up in pass protection and bends at the hips rather than the knees. His lower half is unbelievably strong and agile for someone with this frame, allowing him to move and slide towards edge rushers. Peat's reach and strength in his arms allow him to get great push and separation on rushers, but will need to break the habit of leaning into rushers. The Chiefs have talent in Jamaal Charles, Dwayne Bowe, De'Anthony Thomas, and Travis Kelce; with the talent in this year's wide receiver class, they can use their second and third day picks on talented pass catchers. Ohio State speedster Devin Smith is a sleeper at this pick is well, as a guy who can stretch the field and possibly make an immediate impact.
19. Cleveland Browns (from Buffalo): La'el Collins, OT (LSU)- Defensive tackle Ahtyba Rubin is expected to become a free agent that I don't envision the Browns resigning after finishing 74th out of 81 eligible defensive tackles according to Pro Football Focus at a cost of $6.8 million; to put this performance in perspective, Denver's Terrance Knighton finished 12th at almost a third of the cost ($2.5 million). Cleveland can use their heft amount of cap space to fill their defensive tackle need (Knighton is on the market this year), rather than drafting a younger player. Having addressed Cleveland's need for a pass rusher with the 12th pick, the Browns could bolster their offensive line with a unique product at number 19. Collins has made it known he wishes to play left tackle in NFL but with mainstay Joe Thomas and second year guard Joel Bitonio holding down the left side, it's hard to envision Collins becoming a significant contributor any time soon. Right guard John Greco had a productive year as well, finishing as one of Pro Football's highest rated guards. It was also his first year in his seven year career that he started every game; he's missed 27 games and 68 starts total in his career, numbers that don't flash high levels of productivity. When center Alex Mack went down with a broken leg last season, Greco slid over and took over those duties, thus opening a spot at right guard. Collins' versatility allows for him to have an impact at the guard position despite playing tackle at LSU. He has great guard size (6'5", 321 pounds), upper body strength that allows to essentially control defensive linemen when engaged, and can both pass and run block exceptionally. LSU's pro style offense will have prepared him for pass and run sets the next level, and verbiage should not be an issue. Collins will need to break the habit of playing tall in pass protection and improve his ability to play even lower on short yardage or goal line battles; leverage is a key to success at the next level. Athleticism won't wow you, but he posses the ability to make second level blocks and pull with speed and power which will help his translation to guard in the NFL. This isn't a popular, but possible uncertainty at the guard and center positions are alarming enough to take a guy like Collins, a talent that may not even fall this far.
20. Philadelphia Eagles: Derron Smith, S (Fresno State)- Following a dismal 2014 performance by Philadelphia's secondary, particularly in December when they allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 61 percent of their passes for over 1,100 yards and six touchdowns. Defensive back Bradley Fletcher and safety Nate Allen are entering free agency and defensive back Cary Williams' cap hit jumps from $6.5 million to $8.1 million this season, and after his play along with Fletcher's, they most likely won't be returning. The Eagles are slotted to have $19 million in cap space this offseason, enough to go after the likes of Byron Maxwell and Brandon Flowers, or a younger option in Buster Skrine. They are however, in need of a do-it-all safety such as Smith, who was a three time all-Mountain West selection and recorded 15 career interceptions. He had a huge junior year, registering 87 tackles, seven interceptions, four sacks, and eight tackles for loss. He was diagnosed with a sports hernia prior to his senior season and still had a productive year: 80 tackles (2.5 for loss), an interception, and two fumble recoveries, all while playing injured. On tape, Smith struggled last year due in part to his injury and his workload; the Bulldogs were awful on defense, asking Smith to do much more in the running and passing game. His size (5'11", 200 pounds), speed, and style of play compare favorably to Seattle's Earl Thomas. In 2012, Smith's tackling struggles lead to a decrease in playing time and required him to improve. Smith never looked back, recording 167 tackles and 10.5 tackles for loss between his junior and senior year. In games against USC (two), Nebraska (two), Utah, Rutgers, Oregon, Colorado, Cincinnati, Ole Miss, Illinois, and Cal (all Power 5 teams), Smith recorded 90 tackles (18 against USC in the 2013 Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl)and four interceptions (one of which was returned for a touchdown against USC); there is absolutely no question Smith can play with the best of the best. Unquestionable hands and nose with incredible athleticism and return ability: he is Fresno State's all-time leader in interception return yards. Every bit of a ball hawk and sideline to sideline player as Louisville's Gerod Holliman and is a far better tackler. A mid 4.5 guy who can shoot himself into the first round if he gets to the mid 4.4's at the combine and performs slightly better than expected. This isn't a popular pick and may surprise some people, but don't forget that Smith was Mel Kiper's number one 1 safety before the season. It is rumored that Philadelphia could trade up to number one or two to reunite head coach Chip Kelly with former quarterback Marcus Mariota; plenty of talent at corner back still on the board in Peters, Williams (Florida State), and LSU's Jalen Collins; Holliman and Alabama's Collins (if still available)are also potential targets as well as a possible pass rusher. This pick could go a number of different ways.
21. Cincinnati Bengals: Arik Armstead, DE (Oregon)- Having been an Oregon fan for a decade now, it pains me to have to put Armstead this late in the first round. There is a silver lining however, knowing that at 6'8", 290 he is arguably the draft's most unique product. He has serious length and strength in both the upper and lower parts of his body; one doesn't dominate or over shadow the other. Uses his wide frame and long arms to latch on to blockers and drive them into the backfield, and can shed and fight through them at will. Wraps and tackles well for someone his size and posses the quick twitch and explosiveness you hope to see from someone his size. Armstead also has great balance and feet. Subsequently, his uniqueness may also be his downfall. He lacks pass rush moves, relying simply on bull rushing and a straight shot at the quarterback. With his length and size, you can imagine teams would like to drop into question which I question whether he has the speed to do so; didn't have a high level of production which certainly raises some questions. Armstead is simply a raw, boom-or-bust product that some teams may be willing to take a chance on, especially a team who was awful at rushing the passer last season. The Bengals only sacked the quarterback 20 times last season, an absolutely horrid number. To put that into perspective, two players had 20 or more and 18 had half as many alone. Cincy's biggest need is undeniably a pass rusher. Defensive tackles Geno Atkins and Domata Peko were atrocious last season, but with nearly $34 million in cap space, the Bengals are in a position to sign one or two free agent from a talented defensive tackle class. Should they choose not to, Goldman would be an excellent choice. Offensive tackles Marshall Newhouse and Eric Winston are set to become free agents, and starting left tackle Andrew Whitworth is 33 years old. They have made it known Andy Dalton is their quarterback of the future, so bolstering the offensive line would be a wise choice via free agency or through the draft with prospects such as Miami's Ereck Flowers, Clemmings, or Texas A&M's Cedric Ogbuehi.
22. Pittsburgh Steelers: Marcus Peters, CB (Washington)- Pittsburgh is in dire need of a youth takeover in their secondary: both safeties Troy Polamalu and Will Allen didn't record a single sack or interception last season and will be 34 and 33 years of age respectively by the beginning of next season. The Steelers were also incredibly underachieving at the defensive back position as well as Ike Taylor was a liability in the latter part of the season after coming off a broken forearm, and did not suit up for the Wild Card matchup against the Ravens despite being healthy enough to play; many assume he will not return next season. Cortez Allen was resigned to a five year, $26 million contract last season, only to play far below expectations. He missed six games due to injury and was rated as Pro Football Focus' 103rd corner back (out of the 108 that qualified) and was rated dead last at the half way point. An exceptional talent, Peters comes with baggage having been suspended for a sideline tantrum and was later kicked off of Washington's football team in for disciplinary reasons, all in 2014. His production cannot be understated, picking off 11 interceptions, recording 129 tackles (5.5 for loss), a sack, and a forced fumble in his career. At 6'0", 200 pounds, Peters has first round size to go along with his first round ability. He is an immensely athletic ball hawk who can go up and get any ball and then take it back, giving his offense great position or his team six points. He possesses excellent recognition, allowing him to turn and run with receivers and then get his head around to make a play on the ball. Uses size and physicality in coverage and can cover just about anybody, including top level competition; coverage technique is rather shoddy and too often relies on bodying and grabbing receivers, drawing pass interference calls. Uses his size and physicality in the run game and is not afraid to tackle or deliver a blow to someone. The only reason Peters falls this low is simply because of his off-field issues, which are a huge factor as teams don't wish to invest millions in an immature athlete. In my mind, Peters is the best defensive back prospect in this class, and had he played the entire year, there would be universal agreement. He is an absolute playmaker with all the tools, and all the confidence and swagger, you wish to see in a defensive back. Pittsburgh could also go after an outside linebacker such as Mississippi State's Benardrick McKinney or Washington's Shaq Thompson.
23. Detroit Lions: Eddie Goldman, DT (Florida State)- The Lion's franchise is in a rough spot right now. All four of their defensive tackles are set to become free agents, two of which are some of the best in this year's free agent class (Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley). And with approximately $15 million in cap space, there is little to no chance that they resign both of them. The Lions do however, have the opportunity to franchise tag him at absolutely astronomical amount of $36.6 million dollars, thus allowing both sides to negotiate long-term contract discussions. But with that $15 million in cap space, it's hard to imagine Detroit doesn't find value in that free agency class and possibly sign two good defensive tackles to partner with defensive end Ziggy Ansah or even resigning or franchise tagging Fairley. While running back is most certainly a position of need after Reggie Bush's injury-riddled season (cutting him would also save the Lions $1.7 million in cap space), the Lions currently have one defensive tackle on their roster with very little experience in Caraun Reid. Detroit is in prime position to take a very solid defensive tackle prospect in Eddie Goldman, a monster at 6'4", 320 pounds who both rush the passer and plays very well interiorly. Thick and wide frame contribute to his powerful and strong play that is off the charts; he ragdolls offensive linemen and creates major push to help collapse the pocket and force ball carriers to do what they don't want to do. Great leverage and takes great angles on ball carriers, loves to hit, and wraps up very well for an interior player. There are concerns about whether he can play the 4-3 and his tendency to stand up right at the point of attack; a raw product who must improve his pass rush ability. Goldman will make a wonderful addition for Detroit.
24. Arizona Cardinals: Benardrick McKinney, ILB (Mississippi State)- The urge to have Arizona select Gordon at 24 is great. Starting tailback Johnathan Dwyer was lost for the year due to an injury he suffered during an apparent aggravated assault case, which lead to an expectation of increase in Andre Ellington's workload. Unfortunately, Ellington suffered a foot injury in Week 1 that hampered his production all season and eventually had his season cut short after a hip injury in Week 13; Ellington finished with 3.3 yards per carry and only 12 broken tackles according to Pro Football Focus, and Arizona finished with an astoundingly low six rushing touchdowns. Case in point, Dwyer will almost certainly not returning to the NFL anytime and Ellington's lack of frame to support his frame, the Cardinals need a running back. There is enough talent however, to address the need in the second round such as Miami's Duke Johnson, Boise State's Jay Ajayi, or Indiana's Tevin Coleman. With Daryl Washington facing suspension of an undecided amount of time for domestic violence and Larry Foote a 34 year old free agent whose play declined as the season progressed, an inside linebacker is of greater need. McKinney is an athletic freak: at 6'5", 245 pounds, he has been clocked in the 4.5 range in the 40 and has a 34 inch vertical leap; those traits alone would make him a top 10 or possibly top 5 pick. His athleticism allows McKinney to play sideline-to-sideline and play laterally very well. Has the speed, acceleration, and versatility to chase down ball carriers and make touchdown saving stops and uses his length to trip them up even when he is not in position to make a play. He lined up at every linebacker position for the Bulldogs showed great explosiveness off the edge when rushing the quarterback and strength when fighting through blockers. There are some concerns about coverage ability as he often times was late to his spots and his lack of pass rush prowess, both of which will be asked of him at the next level. Arguably the best athlete in this year's class will make for a great player and contributor.
25. Carolina Panthers: T.J. Clemmings, OT (Pittsburgh)- Cam Newton is without the question the cornerstone of the franchise and a guy who will become a mainstay at the quarterback position as he helped guide Carolina to the playoffs. The Panthers will need to vastly upgrade their offensive line to protect Newton and keep him up right after the disastrous season they just completed: left tackle Byron Bell ranked 83rd out of 84 eligible left tackles according to Pro Football Focus and right tackle Mike Remmers allowed seven quarterback hurries in their playoff loss to Seattle and is now an Exclusive Rights free agent; Bell also allowed two sacks in the same game and he too is a free agent. They're set to have between $11-$12 million dollars in cap space, enough to make a run at one of the many talented free agent receivers to help bolster that position, making Clemmings the ideal target. The unfinished prospect comes with uncertainty having played offensive line for only two years at Pitt, coupled with his poor performance at the Senior Bowl. Scouts question whether he can make the transition to left tackle at the next level after spending those two years playing on the right side and the two before on the defensive side of the ball. His measurable however cannot be overlooked, tipping the scale at 307 pounds and standing at 6'4"; at the Senior Bowl, his arms were also listed as 34". He is a very athletic tackle prospect with adequate feet and balance for someone of his size and (relative) inexperience. The Panthers are in need of both a right and left tackle, allowing for Clemmings to start immediately on the right side and potentially move to the left if he improves and develops into an elite player. What he does at the Scouting Combine will affect his draft stock positively or negatively and will need a big performance to stay or climb in the first round; another potential selection here is Flowers.
26. Baltimore Ravens: Melvin Gordon, RB (Wisconsin)- Justin Forsett stepped in and replaced Ray Rice exceptionally, rushing for 1,266 rushing yards as the NFL's fifth leading rusher. Forsett is 29, old for a running back and a free agent that Baltimore is unsure if they are willing to bring back. Defensive back is also a potential need as Jimmy Smith and Lardarius Webb were injured for a better part of the 2014 season, but are one of the league's best tandems. Webb is won't be 30 until October and will continue to play at a high level, while Smith has a productive year with the Ravens and is entering his final season under contract which would prompt me to think they keep him for at least one final season; if the Ravens were to cut Webb, they would only create $2 million in cap space as well as $10 million in dead money. Both Gordon and Gurley are first round talents and equal possibilities, making it hard to imagine either falling this far. I give Gordon the upper hand due to Gurley's season ending ACL tear that he is still recovering from and will need to be 100 percent by opening weekend. Gordon has quality size at 6'1", 213 pounds and would absolutely thrive in the Ravens' system behind a very solid offensive line predicated on creating huge running lanes. While many see Gordon as an outside runner and a guy who wants to hit the sideline, he attacks the line of scrimmage and isn't afraid to run through the gaps, a downhill runner who will stick his nose wherever he can find a crease. There were times however where Gordon didn't trust the blocking however and was indecisive as a one-cut back, things that will require work at the next level. Gordon also possesses a very strong torso and lower half, and never goes down easily which is why I believe his best trait is his ability to break tackles, extend plays (8 runs of 40+ yards, 5 of 50+ in 2014), and generate yards after contact. He will be asked to block and have a bigger role out of the backfield at the NFL, the latter of which he struggled with the most. Adding 10 pounds to his frame will help tremendously when blocking and shedding tacklers. Overall, Gordon is a special talent and projects as a solid future pro.
27. Dallas Cowboys: Jalen Collins, CB (LSU)- The Cowboys signed defensive back Brandon Carr to a five year, $50.1 million free agent contract in March 2012 and has yet to play to even half of his expectations. He has only intercepted six passes in three years with the Cowboys and didn't have a single one last season, while defending a mind-blowingly low eight passes. To make matters worse, Pro Football Focus rated him as the 90th best defensive back and allowed a 116.6. passer rating against opposing quarterbacks; cutting Carr however, will clear $8 million in cap space. Dallas does have quality talent in Orlando Scandrick, but a major lack of talent and depth after him is an issue that Collins can aid. At 6'2", 198 pounds, Collins is a fluid athlete with great speed and acceleration (he impressively snatched Melvin Gordon 65 yards down the field) who can turn and run with receivers, use his athleticism and length to play the jump ball, and cover a receiver of any size. Perhaps Collins' most notable trait is his fearlessness to throw his body at bigger running backs and desire to make an impact in run defense. What sets him back is his lack of experience as a starter and doesn't appear to have the playmaking ability to start from day one and lacks polished ball skills, but can still be a contributor. This selection could get interesting if the Cowboys don't get a deal done with DeMarco Murray as Gurley is still on the board and is someone they will strongly consider. Louisville's Gerod Holliman is also a target at the safety position.
28. Denver Broncos: Ereck Flowers, OT (Miami)- After a rather disappointing exit in the playoffs last season, it's decision time in Denver. All-Pros Demaryius and Julius Thomas are set to become free agents and both would be loved back in Denver. Most importantly, there is much uncertainty about Peyton Manning's future as well. The organization has made it clear that keeping Demaryius is the top priority, and they are expected to slap a $12.7 million franchise tag on him if the two sides can't agree to a long term deal. As for Julius, he has made it known to the Broncos that he wishes to be one of the league's highest paid tight ends, something in the market of $9-$10 million a year. The Broncos are slated for more than $76 million in cap space between this year and next, more than enough to keep both weapons. As for Peyton, that decision is solely up to him, and should he leave, it's hard to envision both Thomas' wishing to return. The ever-productive Wes Welker is also a free agent, but many speculate he may retire due to three concussions in his career; he has also made it known that if he does return, it may not be with Denver. Both reserve tight ends Virgil Green and Jacob Tamme are ALSO free agents. Tamme had a base salary of $1.25 million last season and wishes to have that matched, but likely won't leaving Green as the odd man out. He is a young player whom the organization has praised and sees a player with great potential. If Julius Thomas and Jacob Tamme both leave, the Broncos will still need to add another tight end either through free agency or on day two or three of the draft. For now, offensive line is their biggest priority with starting center Will Montgomery and starting left guard Orlando Franklin also set to hit the market as free agents. Franklin will likely attract bigger offers and Montgomery has not expressed his desire to return, thus a tackle-that-can-play-guard would be the perfect fit here: no matter who plays quarterback for the Broncos next season, he needs to be protected. Flowers' fantastic size (6'6", 324 pounds) translates into solid run blocking technique. Flowers absolutely mauls opposing defenders with his strength and long arms, as he gets defensive linemen turned around or removes them from the play entirely; this should allow him to make the transition to guard with ease. On the contrary, his pass protection is often sloppy and unrefined. Smaller defensive ends have been able to have their way with Flowers, who tends to pass set with too narrow of base and likes to lean on defenders; these struggles often lead to Flowers pass blocking with very little balance. He also hasn't quite mastered the use of his hands and getting them inside pass rushers, causing himself to revert to pure strength or holding. His saving grace is the use of his feet, which appear very polished and well utilized. With a strong performance in the position drills at the combine, Flowers could easily raise his draft stock.
29. Indianapolis Colts: Todd Gurley, RB (Georgia)- The Colts enjoyed much success last season after finishing 11-5 and upsetting the defending Super Bowl appearing team Denver Broncos in the AFC Divisional matchup. The following week proved to be a much bigger beast, losing to the eventual Super Bowl champion New England Patriots 45-7. Amid the media-frenzy known as "Deflate-gate," it became clear the Colts need help on defense. LaRon Landry, who was granted a four year, $24 million contract in 2013, didn't defend or intercept a single pass last season. Free safety Mike Adams was brought in on a one-year contract and contributed with 87 tackles, five interceptions, and two forced fumbles, finishing as Pro Football Focus' seventh best safety. Unfortunately, Adams will be 34 next month and the Colts have not expressed any interest in resigning him. On the bright side, Indy is projected to have between $34-$35 million in cap space which is more than enough to replace Adams with a player from the talented group of free agent safeties, thus projecting them to find a replacement for running back Trent Richardson. After giving the Browns a first round pick for the back in 2013, Richardson has run for a horrendous 977 yards in 29 games with Colts, has seen his weight reach as high as 240 pounds, and was MIA for their final walk-through the day before the AFC Championship; although he doesn't become a free agent until 2016, Indy can void the $3.1 million he's guaranteed next season. There is very little depth after Richardson in Daniel Herron and Zurlon Tipton who combined for a measly 369 yards on 88 attempts (4.2 yards a carry). Vick Ballard tore his Achilles before the season began, forcing him to miss its entirety, but with an average of 3.9 yards per carry on 224 carries in his career, it's hard to imagine him having an impact, let alone staying with the Colts. Had Gurley finished the season he was having, he more than likely would have found his way to New York for the Heisman Trophy presentation and cemented himself as top 10 talent. A very established back with very established feet, Gurley is extremely powerful and fights through one armed tackles, requiring many defenders to take him down. As that rare blend, Gurley is incredibly quick and can accelerate between the tackles using great angles. He is a powerful, downhill runner with good forward lean and runs behind his pads; a great athlete who possess soft hands and uses his size (6'1", 225 pounds) to make an impact when blocking. Gurley is a yards-after-contact machine, who has also fumbled the ball only three times out of 510 career carries. Gurley's countless positives clearly don't correlate with him being drafted 29th overall. He will need to be more patient when setting up blocks at the next level and doesn't have the most precise vision. Most importantly, he missed three games in 2013 due to a high ankle sprain he suffered against LSU and then the ACL tear this past season against Auburn. These major injuries have many teams wondering whether Gurley will regain his speed and playing style of old. Gurley's performance at the combine could tremendously elevate his draft stock.
30. Green Bay Packers: Paul Dawson, ILB (TCU)- Green Bay finished 12-4 and just a game shy of the Super Bowl, lead by their MVP quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Green Bay shared success on both sides of the ball and carried the team as best as possible in the second half of the NFC Championship after the offense failed to produce. They will have a spot to fill at inside linebacker however, as nine year Packer vet A.J. Hawk is due $3.5 million that no longer matches his impact: As the season progressed, Hawk's role and snaps diminished (in their Monday Night matchup against the Falcons, he was on the field for eight of the 67 defensive snaps) as he became more of a liability than a contribution, allowing a 74 percent completion percentage against him when thrown at according to Pro Football Focus. Behind him, Jamari Lattimore and Brad Jones have yet to play up to Hawk's former caliber, leaving Sam Barrington as the lone producer. Dawson is a product loaded with talent and baggage. He tested positive for Adderall his sophomore year but attained a prescription for the drug a few months later according to Dawson. There were questions regarding his work ethic and film study as he would often show up to lift or meetings late; Dawson finished with 136 tackles (20 for loss) six sacks, and four sacks to which he replied, "How could I be that productive and not watch film? That doesn't make sense." Excellent blend of size (6'2", 230 pounds), strength, and explosiveness who moves well laterally and uses his athleticism to get between or underneath blockers. Attacks the line of scrimmage with ferocity and looks to make a big hit on ball carriers but doesn't wrap up and make form tackles, something he will need to improve. Dawson is also very good in coverage and does a great job of eyeing the quarterbacking and tracking the ball, as well as anticipating what will happen. If he can address his personal issues at the combine and put on a solid performance, he may very well move up the board.
12. Cleveland Browns: Vic Beasley, DE/OLB (Clemson)- The circus that was the Cleveland Browns last year was far better than most remember. They finished only one game below .500 with disastrous quarterback play and had nine players who had "elite" or "good" years according to Pro Football Focus, seventh best in the NFL. After passing on Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans, and Odell Beckham Jr. last season, drafting a wide receiver seems like an absolute must. What many fail to realize is that Cleveland is expected to have $52.4 million dollars in cap space entering this season, third amongst all teams, and with an incredibly deep group of wide receivers set to test the free agent market this off season, Cleveland has a wonderful opportunity to sign at least two of those talented, experienced receivers as opposed to drafting a young guy. Not to mention, Cleveland's current group of wideouts is extremely productive: of those nine players were Taylor Gabriel (17.3 yards per catch as an undrafted rookie) and Andrew Hawkins (694 yards by week 12. Through the last four weeks, the Browns averaged a terrible 150.2 passing yards per game as Hawkins finished just 176 yards shy of 1,000). The Browns also have an elite tight end who feel victim to a concussion and the poor quarterback play as well. Defensively, the Browns had a phenomenal year, considering they were responsible for keeping the games close. The outside linebackers struggled however, registering only 15 sacks, 11 of which were from a single player (Paul Kruger). Beasley seems like the ideal fit in Jim O'Neil's hybrid defense as he himself is a hybrid player, a 4-3 edge rusher who can play Will or Sam (similar to Bruce Irvin and Vonn Miller) or 3-4 outside linebacker who can walk down, rush the edge, or play the gaps. At a slender 236 pounds, Beasley isn't going to physically dominate offensive lineman, and should realistically put on upwards of 10-15 pounds. Where he makes his living his speed and angle off the line, using his quickness to put linemen out of position and then sliding underneath, them making himself virtually unblockable. He also uses his hands and swim move better than any other prospect, thus allowing him to get to the quarterback where he does his damage the most. Beasley's long arms allow him to knock the ball out of the quarterback's arm and force fumbles, something he did countless times at Clemson; when he doesn't reach the quarterback, he uses his speed to chase them down from behind before they have time to get their roll out progressions established. With Josh Gordon's year long suspension and safety Tashaun Gipson being the lone player seeking a lucrative extension, I can't find many reasons why Cleveland doesn't go after any of the free agents at wide receiver. They also have two first round picks in the 2015 draft, so watch for them to possibly trade up for Mariota or Winston.
13. New Orleans Saints: Trae Waynes, CB (Michigan State)- As what seems to constantly be the case for New Orleans, their struggles came on the defensive side of the ball. They forked out $12.3 million with a guaranteed $6 million in 2015 for free agent safety Jairus Byrd, who played only four games last year (missed the other 12 due to injury). His backfield mate Kenny Vaccaro had an alarmingly disappointing year, missing 19 tackles (according to Pro Football Focus) and giving up big plays throughout the season in an attempt to become a true strong safety. Defensive back Keenan Lewis was an absolute lock down corner who shut down the likes of Dez Bryant and Jordy Nelson. The Saints however lack a talented number two and three corner, and don't quite have enough salary cap space to sign a free agent. Waynes is a talented product out of Michigan State who likens himself to Al Harris, and rightfully so. At 6'1", 182 pounds (Harris was also 6'1" and weighed 194), Waynes is an exceptional athlete with fluid hips. He can turn and run very smoothly, allowing him to cover receivers tightly and run with them down the field due to his great speed. What separates him from other corners is his play making ability. Much like Seattle's Richard Sherman, Waynes uses his length to snag any ball away from the receiver and gets his head and body around quick enough to put himself in perfect position to make a play; my favorite quality of Waynes' is his lack of fear when putting his facemask into ball carriers when tackling. Also does a solid job of wrapping up, but will have to put on at least 20 pounds to take down NFL backs. New Orleans is also in need of a pass rusher from the linebacker spot, so look for them to target Kentucky's Alvin Dupree or Shelton, a talented 3-4 defensive tackle.
14. Miami Dolphins: Danny Shelton, DT (Washington)- Although Miami isn't a team with a ton of needs, I can still see this pick going a number of different ways. There's speculation that Miami's in the market for a true number two to play opposite of Brent Grimes, making Shelton's teammate Marcus Peters or Waynes (if he's still available) feasible possibilities. Mike Pouncey is expected to move back to center in which I envision the Dolphins going after free agents Dan Connolly or Mike Iupati to fill the void. They are also looking to upgrade their linebacker spot: in two seasons with the Dolphins, Dannell Ellerbe has accumulated just one sack and two interceptions, numbers that are not nearly enough for the $8.5 million he's being paid. They are also paying $3 million for a guy in Phillip Wheeler who registered a paltry 2014 stat line: 45 total tackles, no interceptions or sacks. They did find value in their fourth round selection Jelani Jenkins who led the team with 110 tackles, and they could address in the later rounds again. Ultimately however, Miami needs a presence at defensive tackle after allowing 165 rushing yards between weeks 12-17. With Jared Odrick as a free agent unexpected to return and Randy Starks expected to be released as a result of his $6 million cap hit and lack of production, Shelton seems to be the most reasonable selection. At 6'2", 332 pounds, he is not a prototypical 4-3 tackle and doesn't quite have the pass rush ability for Miami's 4-3 defense. However, I don't them to ask much of Shelton in regards of rushing the passing, rather using his thick frame to stop the run and plug gaps. With a low repertoire of pass rush moves, Shelton relies on his size and incredible strength to move linemen and bull rush the quarterback. Shelton runs very well for someone his size and never gives up on plays, a trait that was on display against Arizona and Oregon as he chased down the like of Mariota, Royce Freeman, and Anu Solomon; his speed should translate well to the NFL.
15. San Francisco 49ers: Jaelen Strong, WR (Arizona State)- Finishing 8-8 and missing the playoffs was a failure by the Niners' standards and it started at the top. Former head coach Jim Harbaugh and owner Jed York were in turmoil throughout the season as Harbaugh was ultimately shown a lack of support. The defense suffered serious setbacks when NaVorro Bowman and Patrick Willis went down with injuries. Defensive end Justin Smith struggled last year as well (his 20 run stops were tied for 15th in the league among 3-4 defensive ends last season), and at the age of 35, many believe this could be his final season. Offensively, Frank Gore continued to be a staple of the Niners' offense, recording his eighth career 1,000 yard season and alleviating pressure off of quarterback Colin Kaepernick. In regards to Kaepernick, his production dipped heavily from 2013, finishing 24th in the league in completion percentage (60.5), 17th in QBR (55.9 in 2014, 68.6 in 2013), and was the most sacked quarterback in the NFL, who you have to believe receives most of the blame as someone who does his damage escaping the pocket. Pro Football Focus rated him 18th out of 27 qualified quarterbacks in overall accuracy (drops, throwaways, and spikes did not count). Wide receiver Michael Crabtree is expected to test the waters in free agency and Anquan Boldin will enter his 12th season will turn 35 by the time playoffs roll around; his receptions, yards, and touchdowns dropped between 2013 and 2014 as his amount of targets were nearly the same amount in the same period (130 in 2013, 131 in 2014). With Boldin's age beginning to cut into his production, another big bodied, strong-handed receiver would suit Kaep nicely. Strong is 6'3", 215 pounds and posses long arms and soft hands; his one-handed touchdown reception against Notre Dame was marvelous. Aptly named, Strong isn't going to blow past defenders or make them miss in the open field. He uses his huge frame and length to out muscle and out jump defensive backs to make acrobatic catches; after the catch, he is difficult to bring down as he shakes off defenders and sometimes requires two or three to bring him down. While he does not possess blazing speed, Strong's long strides allow him to run very well for someone his size, making him a true deep threat the Niners are in need of. His body control, intertwined with his reach, make him a serious jump-ball threat. At the next level, he will need to sharpen his route running ability and eliminate his tendency to his body to catch passes rather then extending his arms. Strong is a raw talent with a very high ceiling that the Niners need after making Kaepernick their quarterback of the future with a $126 million extension. Shelton (if still available), Dupree, and Texas defensive tackle Malcom Brown are also possible choices to help bolster their front seven.
16. Houston Texans: Malcom Brown, DT (Texas)- Houston started four different quarterbacks and still finished 9-7 despite missing the postseason, due in large part to all-everything JJ Watt. This pick appears to be the best choice for a number of reasons: with an estimated $10 million in cap space, the Texans are in a position financially to sign a top receiver from the free agent class; Deandre Hopkins has solidified himself as the new number one after Andre Johnson saw a significant drop in production (936 yards in 15 games, the lowest amount in as many games since his rookie season in 2003) and may be in his final season as a Texan as he is a $16 million cap hit. The Texans are also in need of another pass rusher after Watt's monumental season. Brown is an ideal fit for the Texans' 3-4 system at 6'4", 320 pounds, an absolute behemoth. As one can imagine, he does not get pushed or moved around easily. With his blend of size and strength, Brown strikes linemen violently and bench presses them, allowing himself to push the pocket. Fights double teams exceptionally by using athleticism and agility to get between them. Has the ability to redirect and chase down the ball carrier; hits and tackles with sheer power, while playing low for someone of his girth. Sinks hips very well when playing against the run. Brown will need to develop an array of pass rush moves at the next level to become a successful pass rusher in a three-tech. Offensive linemen will also be bigger and stronger at the next level, and simply relying on strength will not get the job done. Should Houston choose to forgo signing a free agent wide receiver, any of the afore chosen receivers still on the board are possible selections here. Waynes, Collins (Alabama), or Florida State's P.J. Williams are other viable options if either is still available as three of Houston's impactful free agents reside in the secondary (Kareem Jackson, Daniel Manning, and Kendrick Lewis); another possible defensive tackle choice here is Florida State's Eddie Goldman
17. San Diego Chargers: Alvin Dupree, OLB (Kentucky)- San Diego struck gold when they able to sign defensive back Brandon Flowers to a one year deal worth $3 million. He recorded three interceptions and 10 pass breakups in 14 games, while also helping the Chargers finish fourth in pass yards allowed after finishing 29th in 2013; with an estimated $25 million in cap space, it's hard to imagine they won't grant him an extension. It would be wise for San Diego to use some of that available cap space to rebuild their offensive line. Left tackle King Dunlap will become an unrestricted free agent, and after allowing only three sacks in 1,000 snaps this year (and a quarterback in Phillip Rivers), one can imagine he is the Chargers' top priority. However, five different players played center this season and another three received time at guard. The Chargers have enough money to try to sign guys like Iupati, Rob Sims, or Wisniewski; the guard/center class is very talented. On the other side of the ball, Dwight Freeney is a free agent and San Diego could save $5 million against the cap but cutting Jarret Johnson, who recorded only one sack in 2014. Fellow outside linebackers Melvin Ingram and Jeremiah Attaochu weren't much more productive as they recorded a combined six sacks. After finishing 29th in sacks last season, Dupree is a talent that can contribute immediately. A superb athlete (6'4", 264 pounds and runs a 4.6 40), Dupree can play both defensive end or outside linebacker. His quick twitch muscles allow him to consistently be in position to make a play on the ball or set himself up for easy tackles and violent hits on the ball carrier that creates turnovers. He can bend very well for someone his size and can get around pass blockers very well; uses his long arms to get to the quarterback and swat the "ball off the shelf." Very high motor guy who loves the weight room (put on 15 pounds between his freshman and senior year), but will need to get stronger to succeed at the next level. He will not be able to man handle tight ends and fullbacks in the NFL like he did at Kentucky. Stanford's Andrus Peat, Pittsburgh's T.J. Clemmings, Collins (LSU), Scherff or a running back are possibilities here if they are still available and if San Diego is unable to resign Dunlap; Ryan Matthews is a free agent whom the Chargers have not expressed a great deal of interest in bringing back and Branden Oliver is fairly unproven, making talented prospects Melvin Gordon and Todd Gurley very possible choices here.
18. Kansas City Chiefs: Andrus Peat, OT (Stanford)- I know just about everyone expects the Chiefs to draft a receiver here (Michigan's Devin Funchess, Auburn's Sammie Coats, or Green-Beckham are all real possibilities), but Kansas City was still competitive despite ranking last in targets, receptions, yards, and touchdowns (0). Alex Smith has proven himself as a winner and a guy who plays smart football, and they need to keep him up right. Center Rodney Hudson is set to become a free agent and they lost three key starters to free agency in 2013. Jake Fisher, the first overall pick in the 2013 draft, made the move to left tackle last season, resulting in a putrid performance: Pro Football Focus ranked him 72nd of 84 eligible left tackles; he and left guard Mike McGlynn also allowed a combined 13 sacks. Should Kansas City select Peat (or LSU's Collins), it would allow Fisher to move to right tackle where he should have more of an impact. At 312, Peat is very lean for someone standing at 6'7". Subsequently, it can be his downfall as he occasionally stands straight up in pass protection and bends at the hips rather than the knees. His lower half is unbelievably strong and agile for someone with this frame, allowing him to move and slide towards edge rushers. Peat's reach and strength in his arms allow him to get great push and separation on rushers, but will need to break the habit of leaning into rushers. The Chiefs have talent in Jamaal Charles, Dwayne Bowe, De'Anthony Thomas, and Travis Kelce; with the talent in this year's wide receiver class, they can use their second and third day picks on talented pass catchers. Ohio State speedster Devin Smith is a sleeper at this pick is well, as a guy who can stretch the field and possibly make an immediate impact.
19. Cleveland Browns (from Buffalo): La'el Collins, OT (LSU)- Defensive tackle Ahtyba Rubin is expected to become a free agent that I don't envision the Browns resigning after finishing 74th out of 81 eligible defensive tackles according to Pro Football Focus at a cost of $6.8 million; to put this performance in perspective, Denver's Terrance Knighton finished 12th at almost a third of the cost ($2.5 million). Cleveland can use their heft amount of cap space to fill their defensive tackle need (Knighton is on the market this year), rather than drafting a younger player. Having addressed Cleveland's need for a pass rusher with the 12th pick, the Browns could bolster their offensive line with a unique product at number 19. Collins has made it known he wishes to play left tackle in NFL but with mainstay Joe Thomas and second year guard Joel Bitonio holding down the left side, it's hard to envision Collins becoming a significant contributor any time soon. Right guard John Greco had a productive year as well, finishing as one of Pro Football's highest rated guards. It was also his first year in his seven year career that he started every game; he's missed 27 games and 68 starts total in his career, numbers that don't flash high levels of productivity. When center Alex Mack went down with a broken leg last season, Greco slid over and took over those duties, thus opening a spot at right guard. Collins' versatility allows for him to have an impact at the guard position despite playing tackle at LSU. He has great guard size (6'5", 321 pounds), upper body strength that allows to essentially control defensive linemen when engaged, and can both pass and run block exceptionally. LSU's pro style offense will have prepared him for pass and run sets the next level, and verbiage should not be an issue. Collins will need to break the habit of playing tall in pass protection and improve his ability to play even lower on short yardage or goal line battles; leverage is a key to success at the next level. Athleticism won't wow you, but he posses the ability to make second level blocks and pull with speed and power which will help his translation to guard in the NFL. This isn't a popular, but possible uncertainty at the guard and center positions are alarming enough to take a guy like Collins, a talent that may not even fall this far.
20. Philadelphia Eagles: Derron Smith, S (Fresno State)- Following a dismal 2014 performance by Philadelphia's secondary, particularly in December when they allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 61 percent of their passes for over 1,100 yards and six touchdowns. Defensive back Bradley Fletcher and safety Nate Allen are entering free agency and defensive back Cary Williams' cap hit jumps from $6.5 million to $8.1 million this season, and after his play along with Fletcher's, they most likely won't be returning. The Eagles are slotted to have $19 million in cap space this offseason, enough to go after the likes of Byron Maxwell and Brandon Flowers, or a younger option in Buster Skrine. They are however, in need of a do-it-all safety such as Smith, who was a three time all-Mountain West selection and recorded 15 career interceptions. He had a huge junior year, registering 87 tackles, seven interceptions, four sacks, and eight tackles for loss. He was diagnosed with a sports hernia prior to his senior season and still had a productive year: 80 tackles (2.5 for loss), an interception, and two fumble recoveries, all while playing injured. On tape, Smith struggled last year due in part to his injury and his workload; the Bulldogs were awful on defense, asking Smith to do much more in the running and passing game. His size (5'11", 200 pounds), speed, and style of play compare favorably to Seattle's Earl Thomas. In 2012, Smith's tackling struggles lead to a decrease in playing time and required him to improve. Smith never looked back, recording 167 tackles and 10.5 tackles for loss between his junior and senior year. In games against USC (two), Nebraska (two), Utah, Rutgers, Oregon, Colorado, Cincinnati, Ole Miss, Illinois, and Cal (all Power 5 teams), Smith recorded 90 tackles (18 against USC in the 2013 Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl)and four interceptions (one of which was returned for a touchdown against USC); there is absolutely no question Smith can play with the best of the best. Unquestionable hands and nose with incredible athleticism and return ability: he is Fresno State's all-time leader in interception return yards. Every bit of a ball hawk and sideline to sideline player as Louisville's Gerod Holliman and is a far better tackler. A mid 4.5 guy who can shoot himself into the first round if he gets to the mid 4.4's at the combine and performs slightly better than expected. This isn't a popular pick and may surprise some people, but don't forget that Smith was Mel Kiper's number one 1 safety before the season. It is rumored that Philadelphia could trade up to number one or two to reunite head coach Chip Kelly with former quarterback Marcus Mariota; plenty of talent at corner back still on the board in Peters, Williams (Florida State), and LSU's Jalen Collins; Holliman and Alabama's Collins (if still available)are also potential targets as well as a possible pass rusher. This pick could go a number of different ways.
21. Cincinnati Bengals: Arik Armstead, DE (Oregon)- Having been an Oregon fan for a decade now, it pains me to have to put Armstead this late in the first round. There is a silver lining however, knowing that at 6'8", 290 he is arguably the draft's most unique product. He has serious length and strength in both the upper and lower parts of his body; one doesn't dominate or over shadow the other. Uses his wide frame and long arms to latch on to blockers and drive them into the backfield, and can shed and fight through them at will. Wraps and tackles well for someone his size and posses the quick twitch and explosiveness you hope to see from someone his size. Armstead also has great balance and feet. Subsequently, his uniqueness may also be his downfall. He lacks pass rush moves, relying simply on bull rushing and a straight shot at the quarterback. With his length and size, you can imagine teams would like to drop into question which I question whether he has the speed to do so; didn't have a high level of production which certainly raises some questions. Armstead is simply a raw, boom-or-bust product that some teams may be willing to take a chance on, especially a team who was awful at rushing the passer last season. The Bengals only sacked the quarterback 20 times last season, an absolutely horrid number. To put that into perspective, two players had 20 or more and 18 had half as many alone. Cincy's biggest need is undeniably a pass rusher. Defensive tackles Geno Atkins and Domata Peko were atrocious last season, but with nearly $34 million in cap space, the Bengals are in a position to sign one or two free agent from a talented defensive tackle class. Should they choose not to, Goldman would be an excellent choice. Offensive tackles Marshall Newhouse and Eric Winston are set to become free agents, and starting left tackle Andrew Whitworth is 33 years old. They have made it known Andy Dalton is their quarterback of the future, so bolstering the offensive line would be a wise choice via free agency or through the draft with prospects such as Miami's Ereck Flowers, Clemmings, or Texas A&M's Cedric Ogbuehi.
22. Pittsburgh Steelers: Marcus Peters, CB (Washington)- Pittsburgh is in dire need of a youth takeover in their secondary: both safeties Troy Polamalu and Will Allen didn't record a single sack or interception last season and will be 34 and 33 years of age respectively by the beginning of next season. The Steelers were also incredibly underachieving at the defensive back position as well as Ike Taylor was a liability in the latter part of the season after coming off a broken forearm, and did not suit up for the Wild Card matchup against the Ravens despite being healthy enough to play; many assume he will not return next season. Cortez Allen was resigned to a five year, $26 million contract last season, only to play far below expectations. He missed six games due to injury and was rated as Pro Football Focus' 103rd corner back (out of the 108 that qualified) and was rated dead last at the half way point. An exceptional talent, Peters comes with baggage having been suspended for a sideline tantrum and was later kicked off of Washington's football team in for disciplinary reasons, all in 2014. His production cannot be understated, picking off 11 interceptions, recording 129 tackles (5.5 for loss), a sack, and a forced fumble in his career. At 6'0", 200 pounds, Peters has first round size to go along with his first round ability. He is an immensely athletic ball hawk who can go up and get any ball and then take it back, giving his offense great position or his team six points. He possesses excellent recognition, allowing him to turn and run with receivers and then get his head around to make a play on the ball. Uses size and physicality in coverage and can cover just about anybody, including top level competition; coverage technique is rather shoddy and too often relies on bodying and grabbing receivers, drawing pass interference calls. Uses his size and physicality in the run game and is not afraid to tackle or deliver a blow to someone. The only reason Peters falls this low is simply because of his off-field issues, which are a huge factor as teams don't wish to invest millions in an immature athlete. In my mind, Peters is the best defensive back prospect in this class, and had he played the entire year, there would be universal agreement. He is an absolute playmaker with all the tools, and all the confidence and swagger, you wish to see in a defensive back. Pittsburgh could also go after an outside linebacker such as Mississippi State's Benardrick McKinney or Washington's Shaq Thompson.
23. Detroit Lions: Eddie Goldman, DT (Florida State)- The Lion's franchise is in a rough spot right now. All four of their defensive tackles are set to become free agents, two of which are some of the best in this year's free agent class (Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley). And with approximately $15 million in cap space, there is little to no chance that they resign both of them. The Lions do however, have the opportunity to franchise tag him at absolutely astronomical amount of $36.6 million dollars, thus allowing both sides to negotiate long-term contract discussions. But with that $15 million in cap space, it's hard to imagine Detroit doesn't find value in that free agency class and possibly sign two good defensive tackles to partner with defensive end Ziggy Ansah or even resigning or franchise tagging Fairley. While running back is most certainly a position of need after Reggie Bush's injury-riddled season (cutting him would also save the Lions $1.7 million in cap space), the Lions currently have one defensive tackle on their roster with very little experience in Caraun Reid. Detroit is in prime position to take a very solid defensive tackle prospect in Eddie Goldman, a monster at 6'4", 320 pounds who both rush the passer and plays very well interiorly. Thick and wide frame contribute to his powerful and strong play that is off the charts; he ragdolls offensive linemen and creates major push to help collapse the pocket and force ball carriers to do what they don't want to do. Great leverage and takes great angles on ball carriers, loves to hit, and wraps up very well for an interior player. There are concerns about whether he can play the 4-3 and his tendency to stand up right at the point of attack; a raw product who must improve his pass rush ability. Goldman will make a wonderful addition for Detroit.
24. Arizona Cardinals: Benardrick McKinney, ILB (Mississippi State)- The urge to have Arizona select Gordon at 24 is great. Starting tailback Johnathan Dwyer was lost for the year due to an injury he suffered during an apparent aggravated assault case, which lead to an expectation of increase in Andre Ellington's workload. Unfortunately, Ellington suffered a foot injury in Week 1 that hampered his production all season and eventually had his season cut short after a hip injury in Week 13; Ellington finished with 3.3 yards per carry and only 12 broken tackles according to Pro Football Focus, and Arizona finished with an astoundingly low six rushing touchdowns. Case in point, Dwyer will almost certainly not returning to the NFL anytime and Ellington's lack of frame to support his frame, the Cardinals need a running back. There is enough talent however, to address the need in the second round such as Miami's Duke Johnson, Boise State's Jay Ajayi, or Indiana's Tevin Coleman. With Daryl Washington facing suspension of an undecided amount of time for domestic violence and Larry Foote a 34 year old free agent whose play declined as the season progressed, an inside linebacker is of greater need. McKinney is an athletic freak: at 6'5", 245 pounds, he has been clocked in the 4.5 range in the 40 and has a 34 inch vertical leap; those traits alone would make him a top 10 or possibly top 5 pick. His athleticism allows McKinney to play sideline-to-sideline and play laterally very well. Has the speed, acceleration, and versatility to chase down ball carriers and make touchdown saving stops and uses his length to trip them up even when he is not in position to make a play. He lined up at every linebacker position for the Bulldogs showed great explosiveness off the edge when rushing the quarterback and strength when fighting through blockers. There are some concerns about coverage ability as he often times was late to his spots and his lack of pass rush prowess, both of which will be asked of him at the next level. Arguably the best athlete in this year's class will make for a great player and contributor.
25. Carolina Panthers: T.J. Clemmings, OT (Pittsburgh)- Cam Newton is without the question the cornerstone of the franchise and a guy who will become a mainstay at the quarterback position as he helped guide Carolina to the playoffs. The Panthers will need to vastly upgrade their offensive line to protect Newton and keep him up right after the disastrous season they just completed: left tackle Byron Bell ranked 83rd out of 84 eligible left tackles according to Pro Football Focus and right tackle Mike Remmers allowed seven quarterback hurries in their playoff loss to Seattle and is now an Exclusive Rights free agent; Bell also allowed two sacks in the same game and he too is a free agent. They're set to have between $11-$12 million dollars in cap space, enough to make a run at one of the many talented free agent receivers to help bolster that position, making Clemmings the ideal target. The unfinished prospect comes with uncertainty having played offensive line for only two years at Pitt, coupled with his poor performance at the Senior Bowl. Scouts question whether he can make the transition to left tackle at the next level after spending those two years playing on the right side and the two before on the defensive side of the ball. His measurable however cannot be overlooked, tipping the scale at 307 pounds and standing at 6'4"; at the Senior Bowl, his arms were also listed as 34". He is a very athletic tackle prospect with adequate feet and balance for someone of his size and (relative) inexperience. The Panthers are in need of both a right and left tackle, allowing for Clemmings to start immediately on the right side and potentially move to the left if he improves and develops into an elite player. What he does at the Scouting Combine will affect his draft stock positively or negatively and will need a big performance to stay or climb in the first round; another potential selection here is Flowers.
26. Baltimore Ravens: Melvin Gordon, RB (Wisconsin)- Justin Forsett stepped in and replaced Ray Rice exceptionally, rushing for 1,266 rushing yards as the NFL's fifth leading rusher. Forsett is 29, old for a running back and a free agent that Baltimore is unsure if they are willing to bring back. Defensive back is also a potential need as Jimmy Smith and Lardarius Webb were injured for a better part of the 2014 season, but are one of the league's best tandems. Webb is won't be 30 until October and will continue to play at a high level, while Smith has a productive year with the Ravens and is entering his final season under contract which would prompt me to think they keep him for at least one final season; if the Ravens were to cut Webb, they would only create $2 million in cap space as well as $10 million in dead money. Both Gordon and Gurley are first round talents and equal possibilities, making it hard to imagine either falling this far. I give Gordon the upper hand due to Gurley's season ending ACL tear that he is still recovering from and will need to be 100 percent by opening weekend. Gordon has quality size at 6'1", 213 pounds and would absolutely thrive in the Ravens' system behind a very solid offensive line predicated on creating huge running lanes. While many see Gordon as an outside runner and a guy who wants to hit the sideline, he attacks the line of scrimmage and isn't afraid to run through the gaps, a downhill runner who will stick his nose wherever he can find a crease. There were times however where Gordon didn't trust the blocking however and was indecisive as a one-cut back, things that will require work at the next level. Gordon also possesses a very strong torso and lower half, and never goes down easily which is why I believe his best trait is his ability to break tackles, extend plays (8 runs of 40+ yards, 5 of 50+ in 2014), and generate yards after contact. He will be asked to block and have a bigger role out of the backfield at the NFL, the latter of which he struggled with the most. Adding 10 pounds to his frame will help tremendously when blocking and shedding tacklers. Overall, Gordon is a special talent and projects as a solid future pro.
27. Dallas Cowboys: Jalen Collins, CB (LSU)- The Cowboys signed defensive back Brandon Carr to a five year, $50.1 million free agent contract in March 2012 and has yet to play to even half of his expectations. He has only intercepted six passes in three years with the Cowboys and didn't have a single one last season, while defending a mind-blowingly low eight passes. To make matters worse, Pro Football Focus rated him as the 90th best defensive back and allowed a 116.6. passer rating against opposing quarterbacks; cutting Carr however, will clear $8 million in cap space. Dallas does have quality talent in Orlando Scandrick, but a major lack of talent and depth after him is an issue that Collins can aid. At 6'2", 198 pounds, Collins is a fluid athlete with great speed and acceleration (he impressively snatched Melvin Gordon 65 yards down the field) who can turn and run with receivers, use his athleticism and length to play the jump ball, and cover a receiver of any size. Perhaps Collins' most notable trait is his fearlessness to throw his body at bigger running backs and desire to make an impact in run defense. What sets him back is his lack of experience as a starter and doesn't appear to have the playmaking ability to start from day one and lacks polished ball skills, but can still be a contributor. This selection could get interesting if the Cowboys don't get a deal done with DeMarco Murray as Gurley is still on the board and is someone they will strongly consider. Louisville's Gerod Holliman is also a target at the safety position.
28. Denver Broncos: Ereck Flowers, OT (Miami)- After a rather disappointing exit in the playoffs last season, it's decision time in Denver. All-Pros Demaryius and Julius Thomas are set to become free agents and both would be loved back in Denver. Most importantly, there is much uncertainty about Peyton Manning's future as well. The organization has made it clear that keeping Demaryius is the top priority, and they are expected to slap a $12.7 million franchise tag on him if the two sides can't agree to a long term deal. As for Julius, he has made it known to the Broncos that he wishes to be one of the league's highest paid tight ends, something in the market of $9-$10 million a year. The Broncos are slated for more than $76 million in cap space between this year and next, more than enough to keep both weapons. As for Peyton, that decision is solely up to him, and should he leave, it's hard to envision both Thomas' wishing to return. The ever-productive Wes Welker is also a free agent, but many speculate he may retire due to three concussions in his career; he has also made it known that if he does return, it may not be with Denver. Both reserve tight ends Virgil Green and Jacob Tamme are ALSO free agents. Tamme had a base salary of $1.25 million last season and wishes to have that matched, but likely won't leaving Green as the odd man out. He is a young player whom the organization has praised and sees a player with great potential. If Julius Thomas and Jacob Tamme both leave, the Broncos will still need to add another tight end either through free agency or on day two or three of the draft. For now, offensive line is their biggest priority with starting center Will Montgomery and starting left guard Orlando Franklin also set to hit the market as free agents. Franklin will likely attract bigger offers and Montgomery has not expressed his desire to return, thus a tackle-that-can-play-guard would be the perfect fit here: no matter who plays quarterback for the Broncos next season, he needs to be protected. Flowers' fantastic size (6'6", 324 pounds) translates into solid run blocking technique. Flowers absolutely mauls opposing defenders with his strength and long arms, as he gets defensive linemen turned around or removes them from the play entirely; this should allow him to make the transition to guard with ease. On the contrary, his pass protection is often sloppy and unrefined. Smaller defensive ends have been able to have their way with Flowers, who tends to pass set with too narrow of base and likes to lean on defenders; these struggles often lead to Flowers pass blocking with very little balance. He also hasn't quite mastered the use of his hands and getting them inside pass rushers, causing himself to revert to pure strength or holding. His saving grace is the use of his feet, which appear very polished and well utilized. With a strong performance in the position drills at the combine, Flowers could easily raise his draft stock.
29. Indianapolis Colts: Todd Gurley, RB (Georgia)- The Colts enjoyed much success last season after finishing 11-5 and upsetting the defending Super Bowl appearing team Denver Broncos in the AFC Divisional matchup. The following week proved to be a much bigger beast, losing to the eventual Super Bowl champion New England Patriots 45-7. Amid the media-frenzy known as "Deflate-gate," it became clear the Colts need help on defense. LaRon Landry, who was granted a four year, $24 million contract in 2013, didn't defend or intercept a single pass last season. Free safety Mike Adams was brought in on a one-year contract and contributed with 87 tackles, five interceptions, and two forced fumbles, finishing as Pro Football Focus' seventh best safety. Unfortunately, Adams will be 34 next month and the Colts have not expressed any interest in resigning him. On the bright side, Indy is projected to have between $34-$35 million in cap space which is more than enough to replace Adams with a player from the talented group of free agent safeties, thus projecting them to find a replacement for running back Trent Richardson. After giving the Browns a first round pick for the back in 2013, Richardson has run for a horrendous 977 yards in 29 games with Colts, has seen his weight reach as high as 240 pounds, and was MIA for their final walk-through the day before the AFC Championship; although he doesn't become a free agent until 2016, Indy can void the $3.1 million he's guaranteed next season. There is very little depth after Richardson in Daniel Herron and Zurlon Tipton who combined for a measly 369 yards on 88 attempts (4.2 yards a carry). Vick Ballard tore his Achilles before the season began, forcing him to miss its entirety, but with an average of 3.9 yards per carry on 224 carries in his career, it's hard to imagine him having an impact, let alone staying with the Colts. Had Gurley finished the season he was having, he more than likely would have found his way to New York for the Heisman Trophy presentation and cemented himself as top 10 talent. A very established back with very established feet, Gurley is extremely powerful and fights through one armed tackles, requiring many defenders to take him down. As that rare blend, Gurley is incredibly quick and can accelerate between the tackles using great angles. He is a powerful, downhill runner with good forward lean and runs behind his pads; a great athlete who possess soft hands and uses his size (6'1", 225 pounds) to make an impact when blocking. Gurley is a yards-after-contact machine, who has also fumbled the ball only three times out of 510 career carries. Gurley's countless positives clearly don't correlate with him being drafted 29th overall. He will need to be more patient when setting up blocks at the next level and doesn't have the most precise vision. Most importantly, he missed three games in 2013 due to a high ankle sprain he suffered against LSU and then the ACL tear this past season against Auburn. These major injuries have many teams wondering whether Gurley will regain his speed and playing style of old. Gurley's performance at the combine could tremendously elevate his draft stock.
30. Green Bay Packers: Paul Dawson, ILB (TCU)- Green Bay finished 12-4 and just a game shy of the Super Bowl, lead by their MVP quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Green Bay shared success on both sides of the ball and carried the team as best as possible in the second half of the NFC Championship after the offense failed to produce. They will have a spot to fill at inside linebacker however, as nine year Packer vet A.J. Hawk is due $3.5 million that no longer matches his impact: As the season progressed, Hawk's role and snaps diminished (in their Monday Night matchup against the Falcons, he was on the field for eight of the 67 defensive snaps) as he became more of a liability than a contribution, allowing a 74 percent completion percentage against him when thrown at according to Pro Football Focus. Behind him, Jamari Lattimore and Brad Jones have yet to play up to Hawk's former caliber, leaving Sam Barrington as the lone producer. Dawson is a product loaded with talent and baggage. He tested positive for Adderall his sophomore year but attained a prescription for the drug a few months later according to Dawson. There were questions regarding his work ethic and film study as he would often show up to lift or meetings late; Dawson finished with 136 tackles (20 for loss) six sacks, and four sacks to which he replied, "How could I be that productive and not watch film? That doesn't make sense." Excellent blend of size (6'2", 230 pounds), strength, and explosiveness who moves well laterally and uses his athleticism to get between or underneath blockers. Attacks the line of scrimmage with ferocity and looks to make a big hit on ball carriers but doesn't wrap up and make form tackles, something he will need to improve. Dawson is also very good in coverage and does a great job of eyeing the quarterbacking and tracking the ball, as well as anticipating what will happen. If he can address his personal issues at the combine and put on a solid performance, he may very well move up the board.
31. Seattle Seahawks: Devin Smith, WR (Ohio State)- Seattle is a very talented team with very few holes, but they do need to bolster their receiving core to help them garner another championship. At pick number 31, the cream of the crop is not available but talented options Phillip Dorsett, Devin Funchess, and Green-Beckham are possibilities. However, the Ohio State speedster is the ideal replacement for departed Percy Harvin. Smith's explosiveness (28.2 yards per catch and 12 touchdowns last season) coupled with his size (6'1", 200 pounds) is remarkable compared to other renowned speedsters DeSean Jackson (5'10", 178 pounds), T.Y. Hilton (5'9", 183 pounds) and Harvin (5'11" 185 pounds). Despite Smith's phenomenal athleticism, he is not a finished product as a receiver. He has the habit of double catching and needs to rely on using his hands to haul passes in, unpolished route running, and was successful playing with quarterbacks with strong arms; he will not be able to run by bigger, faster defensive backs at the next level and will need to add roughly 10-15 pounds to his frame. What entices teams the most is the fact that every facet of his game is done with incredible speed and quickness. The agility and quickness in his feet and flexibility in his hips and shoulders allow him to get off the line and break off routes with precision and make acrobatic catches (check his ridiculous one handed catch against the Hurricanes); Smith will almost certainly make an impact on special teams as well. Smith is another prospect that will shoot up the boards with an exceptional performance at the combine.
32. New England Patriots: Devin Funchess, WR (Michigan)- Coming off of a Super Bowl victory, it's hard to imagine a team potentially having holes to fill, something the Patriots are staring at this offseason. Devin McCourty (safety), Darrelle Revis (defensive back), Dan Connolly, Stephen Gostkowski (kicker), and running backs Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen will enter free agency this offseason. The worst part? All were starters or significant contributors to their Super Bowl victory. Many believe McCourty and Revis to be the biggest targets for New England to resign, but the reality is that all of these players will most likely not be back with the Patriots minimal cap space; therefore a running back, safety, or a corner are all possibilities here. I went with Funchess however, because the Patriots have depth defensively and always find value in lower round or unwanted running backs. Funchess is an absolute nightmare to matchup against at 6'5, 230 pounds, whose athleticism doesn't require much elaboration: he was an honorable mention All-Big Ten selection in 2012 and received the Kwalick-Clark Tight End of the Year in 2013 as the Big Ten's best tight end. In 2014, he switched to wide receiver and was named to the All-Big Ten team. He possesses a very long stride that allows him to cover ground before being tracked down. His size is perhaps his greatest asset, allowing him to body defensive backs in man coverage and in the red zone; spending two years as a tight end and a year at receiver has made him very physical with great use of his hands off the line, while creating separation. Leaping ability is also undeniable. The down side to Funchess' massive frame is how often he relied on it to reel in passes, leading to a high amount of drops. He isn't a precise route runner and often received backlash for his lethargic effort; he also lacks a second burst and acceleration to hope to see at someone that size. Had Funchess stayed in school for another season and refined his game at the wide receiver spot, I have very little doubt he would have become a top 10 talent. There is no denying his talent level though, and is an intriguing prospect that New England will develop and use in the correct formations and sets; Funchess could ultimately become the player the Patriots thought Aaron Hernandez would someday be.
Good stuff...very thorough!
ReplyDeleteSince the Packers released AJ Hawk a few days ago, that pick looks solid. They may need secondary help as well.
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