Winston Well Worth the Hype

Rookie quarterbacks affect coaching and game plan as much as anything, and being the first overall pick comes with a heavy burden of expectations. Coaches are forced to dedicate precious amounts of time to developing these young passers, while protections and progressions are simplified to make the transition easier. Winston wasn't asked to set the line pre-snap very often, but he was one of the more cerebral passers in the 2015 draft class coming from Jimbo Fisher's system that asked him to utilize his mind before and after the snap; Winston's mind was simply advanced. Here, I will break down Winston's traits that made him a number one overall pick with weak aspects in his game that need development.

I begin with these three videos because they showcase anticipation consistencies in my evaluation during his time at Florida State. Anticipation is one of the most vital aspects quarterbacks possess because everything is happening at a much quicker pace at the next level, and if you have an underdeveloped ability to throw guys open or hit windows as they're opening, your NFL days are numbered.  We begin with his first NFL game, a preseason matchup against the Vikings. It's not visible, but Winston releases the ball just before Mike Evans' break on his post route and puts the ball out in front. The next video features Evans again against the Redskins and Winston's five-step drop, keeping his eyes on the single-high safety to manipulate the defender. Following his hitch, Winston drops an ideally-placed ball where only Evans can get it, but you should notice that the corner actually has a step on Evans as the ball travels; Winston anticipated Evans' stride length to stack that corner and haul in an easy six. Finally, you get a clearer view of Winston's clunky, elongated motion that will allow corners with twitch to break on throws that take longer to arrive. Regardless, Winston holds a stronger lower-half that propels him through sacks and adds velocity and rotation to his intermediate throws. That part of his body is evident in the third video against the Saints, coupled with the continuous theme of anticipation: Winston recognizes Brandon Browner (#39) run with the underneath route and immediately throws a strike to open window behind him.

For all the promise Winston showed, he wasn't immune to looking like a rookie. Beginning with the first video, something I noticed in Winston's FSU evaluation was his in ability to get the necessary weight transfer on every throw. Not stepping into your throws is detrimental to the ability to squeeze the ball into tight windows at all levels of the field, a trait on display in the first video as the ball comes too far infield; throwing the ball late like Winston did doesn't aid his cause
either, while the poor weight transfer occurred on a number of throws last year. The next video against the Brown exposes Winston's youth, and doesn't require much explanation: throwing late across the middle is a cardinal sin as far down as Pop Warner. The final video focuses on a lapse in decision making that I also noticed in his evaluation. It's difficult to confirm, but I believe this throw was predetermined due to the fact that he released it at the top of his drop; if it was, you can chalk that decision up to inexperience. Regardless, he should have known the degree of difficulty that throw possesses and chosen to go else where or get rid of it.

The rookie threw for 4,042 yards and 22 touchdowns against 15 interceptions, adding another 213 and six on the ground. Winston's 58.3 completion percentage isn't something to fret over as he still has developing to do like all rookie passers. He certainly showed flashes of a star to come.

Gronk on Pace to Become NFL's Best Tight End- Ever

Rob Gronkowski is not your typical tight end. Coming out of Arizona, the New York native measured as one of the 2010 draft class' biggest at such position at 6'6," 258 pounds. His 4.68 40 ranked in the 75th percentile, while his 10 yard split ranked in the 85th. Gronk parlayed his successful combine and accomplished college career (third team All-American as a sophomore despite missing the first three games) into a second round pick by the New England Patriots. Had he not missed his entire junior season due to injury, there's little reason to believe he wouldn't have gone in the first.

The Patriots utilized him as a rookie, starting him in 11 games where he recorded 42 receptions for 546 yards and 10 touchdowns; his three touchdowns as a rookie were the most by a rookie in franchise history as the youngest player in NFL history to do so. Gronk exploded onto the scene the following year, snagging 90 balls for 1,327 yards and 17 touchdowns, the latter two of which were NFL records for tight ends- in only his second season. Through his first six seasons, Gronk has tallied 380 receptions for 5,555 yards and 65 touchdowns and has a career similar to that of Jason Witten, Tony Gonzalez, and Mike Ditka via Pro Football Reference.



As tough a runner Jason Witten was, Gronk matches such physicality but possesses unmatched athleticism and ability to make defenders miss in the open field. His play speed, fluid feet, and balance allow the Patriots to flex him out in slot or as a single receiver which is the crux of what makes Gronk one of the most valuable players in the league: he's bigger than the linebackers tasked with covering him and has the speed to challenge safeties down the field. These two videos are prime examples of why the Pats love getting the ball to him in space and running route combinations, lining him up in bunch sets, that allow him a free release so Tom Brady can quickly get him the ball; since 2011, New England has reduced the average time before attempt each season, while averaging between eight and nine yards per attempt. This quick-strike system is why the likes of Wes Welker and Julian Edelman-relatively unwanted slot options prior to their Patriot careers- have thrived in New England.



The first video touches on the aforementioned versatility that allows him to thrive in the slot and challenge safeties, but also highlights Gronk's route running, an aspect he has improved since his rookie season. He sinks his hips and accelerates out of his break to create separation at the top of his route before making a clean catch and hanging on over the middle. The second video showcases the Patriots' four tight end package in the red zone, an aspect of their passing their game they utilize frequently to beat man coverage use as extra blockers in their run game; Scott Chandler was an ideal player in that package and Martellus Bennet will thrive in the red zone in 2016. Here, Gronk uses his well-documented athleticism to dip underneath and stack his man defender before making a catch that corner back's can't defend.



Tight ends are tasked to play an important role in the running game, and Gronk's blocking ability is arguably the best in the league. The video's captions highlights his sound technique, but his strength and size make him a difficult task for defensive ends to beat.



The NFL's elite have very little holes in their game and players at this level have high football IQs that can mask whatever weaknesses they may possess. Nonetheless, Gronk is not a perfect player. One area where he can reduce his inconsistencies his is inability to disengage from physical defenders, failing to use his hands to combat such weakness. Another recurring inconsistency is getting into his break: being the explosive athlete that he is, he should be able to get in and out of breaks with ease rivaling that of NFL receivers; the second video shows that isn't necessarily the case.

Above all else, perhaps Gronk's biggest weakness is his injury history. He missed five games in 2012 due to a forearm injury before undergoing surgery to fix the issue in May 2013; he also underwent back surgery in June of that same year. The 2013 season robbed him of nine games as well due to MCL and ACL tears, returning to form in 2014 with 82 receptions for 1,124 yards and 12 touchdowns in 15 games (10 starts).

Tony Gonzalez is statistically the best tight end the NFL has ever seen, and Gronk may not touch his career records. I don't believe that's indicative of Gonzalez simply being the better tight end: Gonzalez's records are durational-he played for 16 years, a number Gronk may not see due to his injury troubles. Cross-era comparisons hard to support and defend, but when it's all said and done, we can make the definitive case for Gronk as the game's most talented tight end.

Mathieu Deserving of Contract if he Remains Healthy

Growing up in New Orleans, former home-state and current Arizona Cardinal star Tyrann Mathieu has witnessed his fair share of obstacles. The city's poverty rate of 27.7 in 2015 found its spot amongst the 10 most poverty-stricken cities in America, while its murder rate of 46 (per 100,000) ranked second. Here's this excerpt from a May 2016 Times-Picayune article:

"Harper suggested Louisiana's high rate of incarceration – the highest in the world – plays a significant role in New Orleans murder rate. In 2013, 847 out of every 100,000 adults in Louisiana were locked up, compared to 353 in California, according to the U.S. Department of Justice."

Mathieu can relate: his father, Darrin, was brought up on murder chargers and has since been incinerated for the majority of his life. His mother remained absent during his upbringing as well, leaving his guidance in the hands of his grandparents; following the passing of his grandfather, Mathieu was adopted by his aunt and uncle, Shiela and Tyrone Mathieu.

Undeterred by his domestic issues, Mathieu became a four star recruit at New Orleans power St. Augustine, the home of current LSU Tiger phenom Leonard Fournette and the seventh most NFL players ever. 

He chose to stay close to home as apart of Les Miles' Tigers where he quickly became a star. As a true freshman in 2010, Mathieu played in all 13 games and finished the season with 59 tackles, three sacks, and two interceptions, earning Cotton Bowl MVP honors along the way. The following year was Mathieu's coming out party that began with a stellar performance against the Oregon Ducks that saw him tally 10 tackles and a forced fumble that he proceeded to recover and run in for six. The remainder of the season was a cake-walk for the sophomore who paced the team with 76 tackles while registering 7.5 tackles for loss (fourth on the team), 1.5 sacks, two interceptions, six forced fumbles, and five fumble recoveries. He made an impact on special teams as well, returning 26 punts for 420 yards and two touchdowns as an integral part of LSU's National Championship team; he garnered the Chuck Bednarik Award and first team All-American honors for his efforts. Mathieu has a seasons worth of highlights rivaling that of most players' careers.

That stellar season also featured the Heisman Trophy finalists' one-game suspension for a violation of the program's drug policy. This would ultimately serve as a precursor for a much larger issue: on August 10, 2012, Miles announced that Mathieu would be dismissed from the program for a violation of team rules (the media believed the cause was multiple failed drug tests, although Miles did not confirm such speculation). He withdrew from the school a week later and entered a drug rehibilitaion before enrolling in fall classes the following month. Mathieu's issues compounded when he and three other LSU former players were arrested on possession of marijuana on October 25th. He would declare for the 2013 NFL Draft and accept an invite to the combine where he posted a 4.5 40, 34 inch vert, and a 9'7" broad jump en route to a third round selection by the Cardinals.

Mathieu developed into a impact rookie, spending time as a slot corner and free safety (11 starts) as he racked up 65 tackles, one sack, one forced fumble, and two interceptions as a first team All-Pro; he truly lived up to the Honey Badger moniker he earned as a sophomore. His successes are attributed to his elite instincts and athleticism that made him such a dynamic player at LSU, but what truly set him apart were his route recognition and fluidity. He does a good job of reading the route combination and adjusting in man, using his fluid hips and IQ to match the receiver's route. From there, he appropriately gets his head around and adjusts to the ball to complete the interception. Mathieu's superb rookie campaign was cut short after 13 games due to ACL and LCL tears in his left knee.



The first video represents the aforementioned instincts and athleticism. He gets downhill to attack the ball carrier who does a fine job of reading his open-field block and recognizing the open lane to the left. Mathieu instinctively witnesses the open path, spinning to avoid the blocker and using said athleticism to snap into a balanced tackle attempt. A defender's burst is a key trait that allows them to make plays fewer guys can; Mathieu is such player. In the second video, you'll notice his burst off the edge and hustle to get down the line and make plays in the backfield that mirror those he made as a Tiger.



2014 was something of a recovery year for Mathieu-as indicated by his stat line-while 2015 was a culmination of health and elevated play. The Cardinals' defensive scheme is characterized as a man-match zone scheme that offers complexities for the linebackers and safeties, Mathieu's position in their base defense with a role as a slot corner in their nickel package. Defensive coordinator James Bettcher prefers this system because it isolates fellow corner Patrick Peterson on opponents' top targets where he can win one-on-one matchups. Bettcher also (wisely) prefers to run lots of man with his elite athletes in the defensive backfield, shown above in Cover 0. Mathieu reads his man accurately and works downhill, jumping the route and taking the interception to the end zone.



It's difficult to find major flaws in Mathieu's game, but flaws exist nonetheless. He plays with a generally tall backpedal that doesn't cause the same problems it would with lesser athletes, although it does cause him to hitch at the top of his click-and-close; you'll notice this issue in the first video. Being an aggressive player results in momentum-shifting plays on both ends of the spectrum, creating a classic conundrum for such players. The second video is a prime example of such where Mathieu bites on the double move, and has done so multiple times throughout his career including on play action. Much like the issue with his backpedal, his aggressiveness doesn't affect him the same way it would most players: Mathieu's recovery ability and intelligence allow him to be the aggressor he is without them becoming recurring issues.

Mathieu was well on his way to Defensive MVP honors this past season before tearing his right ACL in Week 15. Regardless, he finished with 89 tackles (third on the team), one sack, one forced fumble, five interceptions, and 12 pass breakups and parlayed his first team All-Pro season into a brand new, 5 year/$62.5 million contract extension. He finished as Pro Football Focus' top rated corner after allowing a mere 77.6 quarterback rating, but $40 million guaranteed is a hefty price tag for a player who simply won't have quite the same agility and quick twitch fiber after major surgeries on both knees.

Despite the questions surrounding the contract, Mathieu is more than deserving of wearing the "highest paid safety" label. He has proven to be a first-class citizen who suffered an embarrassing fall from grace only to accept responsibility and earn all that he has as a loving father who cares deeply about his hometown and the Cardinal organization for simply giving him a chance. On the field, he is deeply admired and respected by his teammates due to his endearing leadership qualities. Reports have Mathieu's expectations to return sometime next week, a huge sigh of relief if they hold true. Whether or not the timetable holds true, it's exceedingly difficult not to root for Tyrann Mathieu. 

With More Weapons, Carr Primed for Big Year

The turn of the century has not been kind to the Oakland Raiders. After posting a 33-15 record with three AFC West titles and a Super Bowl appearance during the first three seasons of said century, they have yet to reach the playoffs or post a winning record. What's more, they've gone through nine different head coaches and a whopping 18 quarterbacks since 2000; this stretch of futility is the result of the late Al Davis' substandard first round draft choices of the likes of Robert Gallery, Fabian Washington, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Tyler Brayton and JaMarcus Russell. One poor draft can substantially set a franchise back, but multiple can cripple a franchise for years.

Enter quarterback Derek Carr, the third year passer from Fresno State who measures at 6'3," 218 pounds with impeccable arm talent. Prior to his stint as a Bulldog, Carr rewrote the Central Section record books at Bakersfield Christian at the helm of CIF Division V champions. Following the completion of his senior season in 2009, he was named the National Player of the Year by the National Private Schools Athletic Association.

From there, all Carr did was rewrite Fresno State's record book previously littered with marks held by his older brother, David; Derek would finish with 12,843 yards and 113 touchdowns through the air against a meager 24 interceptions. He garnered first round buzz as the 2013 season progressed, but "questions" regarding how the family's lineage would prove impactful for his future with the Houston Texans, who held the number one pick, surfaced just weeks prior to the draft (David was taken number one overall by the Texans in 2002, but failed to live up to the billing albeit being in a terrible situation). Following a disappointing performance against USC in the Las Vegas Bowl, more questions persisted regarding his ability to handle next-level competition.

The Raiders took a flier on him in the second round and never looked back: after briefly battling with Matt Schaub, head coach Dennis Allen named Carr the starting quarterback for the 2014 season. He flashed signs of brilliance as a rookie, throwing for 3,270 yards and 21 touchdowns while managing to take care of the ball (12 interceptions) behind an underwhelming offensive line with an equally underwhelming supporting cast. Perhaps the most eye-popping stat were his 599 attempts, the second most by a rookie in NFL history, coupled with the fact he was able to keep his rookie mistakes to the bare minimum. Regardless, it's extremely difficult to win games when you ask your rookie quarterback to throw the ball 37 times a game, and the Raiders 3-13 record was a direct reflection of such sentiment.

This past season proved to be far more exciting for Raider Nation with the additions of receivers Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper and the growth of running back Latavius Murray, providing Carr with the necessary weapons. Cooper became the first Raiders receiver to exceed the century mark in an NFL-most 11 seasons, while Murray tallied that same number on the ground as the first Raider to do so since 2010. In turn, Carr's numbers rose to 3,987 yards and 32 touchdowns against 13 interceptions despite 26 fewer attempts. His 53 touchdowns through his first two seasons rank second in NFL history.



When you turn on Carr's film as a rookie, you wouldn't know he was one: his play showed very little indication of a rookie quarterback behind center while it was evident he elevated those around him. This video showcases the anticipation and aforementioned arm talent Carr possesses; he is rolling right when he recognizes his receiver getting to the top out of his route. Carr knows this receiver now has the leverage and throws it at the ideal time with some serious zip that creates tight spirals at all levels of the field.



This play is one of my favorites and comes from his 2014 preseason start against the defending champion Seahawks who Carr shredded (against their starters mind you) for 143 yards and three touchdowns and zero interceptions on 11-for-13 passing. This touchdown encompasses a multitude of areas where Carr excels. After setting up off of play action, Carr manipulates the single-high safety with his eyes, holding him there just long enough to eliminate him making a play on the ball; although Carr has struggled with bird dogging his the target the past two seasons, he's shown progress in that field. He recognizes he doesn't like the read post-snap so he steps up in the pocket, resets his feet and delivers a beautifully thrown ball by elevating his shoulder plane and and climbing his plant leg for optimum trajectory. Granted the receiver has a three yard cushion on the defensive back, but dropping the ball in the bucket as such is imperative when that cushion is reduced to inches.





The first video came from his career start against a talented Jets defense. For starters, Carr is a student of the game who can quickly recognize coverages and rotations, doing so here by seeing the Jets bring pressure off the edge with Cover 1 behind it. He sees this pre-snap and knows he's going to throw hot and take what the defense gives him, which in turn allows hims weapons to work with the ball. Carr puts the ball in a good spot and keeps his receiver on his route for an easy six. As for the second, you'll notice Carr's deep anticipation and ability to throw to a spot that Chargers' defensive back Jason Verrett has little chance of disrupting. The anticipation comes into play as the Chargers roll to a Cover 1 Robber look, forcing the free safety to play center fielder. Carr holds him there before releasing the ball just as his receiver gains leverage on Verrett; too early and the safety makes a play on the ball, but too late and you deviate from attacking the proper single-high window.

While Carr has grown over the last two seasons, there are still glaring deficiencies in his game. Through Week 13 of the 2015 season, seven of Carr's then-nine interceptions had come in the fourth quarter while six came when the Raiders were trailing by only a score. Those are attributed to the bird dogging I previously mentioned, but he is not immune to the forced throw or slow mental clock; he is a great athlete who can get outside the pocket and extend plays with his feet, but there have been multiple occurrences of him holding the ball longer than the route concepts suggest. In that same time period, Carr also posted a lowly fourth quarter passer rating of 55.6

He is a young passer who is still mastering his craft and will likely cut down on the mental mistakes in year three. The Raiders offense is fun to watch due to offensive Bill Musgrave's use of multiple formations and personnel groupings that feature Carr both under center and in the gun. His play calling was rather predictable in 2014 and defenses capitalized on that, but with Murray's growth on the ground and through the air, Musgrave presented the opposition with more challenges. Oakland overhauled their offensive front and quite possibly boast the second unit of any team not named the Dallas Cowboys. I also expect the Raiders to give tight end Clive Walford an increased workload after his improvements in 2015. All points back to Carr, who should take that imperative Year Three leap.

Ryan Tannehill Has Top Quarterback Potential

Miami Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill is a definitive candidate for NFL players who are just scratching the surface of their potential. A former receiver, Tannehill was originally recruited to Texas A&M to play quarterback before being beaten out by Jerrod Johnson and veteran Stephen McGee as a redshirt freshman. Head coach Mike Sherman quickly realized the athlete he had in Tannehill and made the decision to move him to receiver where he hauled in 46 receptions for 609 yards and four touchdowns in 2009 as approximately 80 percent of his receptions went for first downs or touchdowns; he earned honorable mention All-Big 12 honors for his efforts. He split time with Johnson the following season, starting seven games and completing 65 percent of his passes for 1,638 yards and 13 touchdowns against six interceptions while adding another 76 and one on the ground. He was recognized as an honorable mention all-conference selection for the second straight year.

2011 was Tannehill's breakout year as he earned the starting nod and ran with it: he completed 61 percent of his passes for 3,744 yards and 29 touchdowns (15 interceptions) while adding another 306 and four on the ground. He capped his illustrious seasons by guiding the Aggies to a bowl victory over Northwestern before declaring for the draft. Tannehill's exceptional pro day performance, where he measured at 6'4," 217 pounds with a 4.58 40, catapulted him into top 10 conversation that the Dolphins capitalized on; they took him eighth overall.

The 17th Dolphins starter since Dan Marino took his bumps as a rookie and showcased his deep ball struggles that plagued him at A&M.



The video above features a multitude of things. For starters, you'll notice Tannehill's ability to step up into a clean pocket, reset his feet, and deliver the ball down the field, creating pocket awareness and maneuverability he flashed as a rookie and has bettered has his career's progressed. Things go awry from there where the aforementioned deep ball issues rear their ugly heads. Although his accuracy is on display here, albeit something he still struggles with today, his lack of touch is what potentially costs Brian Hartline six.



Because Tannehill is a change-of-pace passer, those issues with down field touch are not uncommon. This video highlights the quick release and zip Tannehill possesses, zip that challenges defenses at all levels of the field as a trait he perfected at A&M and is comparable to top NFL quarterbacks. These attributes served him well last year where the Dolphins featured many vertical route combinations out of 2x2 and 3x1 sets that dove the defense deep before an underneath route came open late and allowed them to get their athletic pass catchers out in space and earn yards after the catch; the same can be said for their heavy use of bubbles and spot screens. Case in point, Tannehill's arm talent is top tier.



This is one of my favorites because it encompasses many areas where Tannehill has really grown. There has been an exponential growth in his football IQ as he has made the correct pre- and post-snap reads on countless occasions and has grown to understand throwing lanes. In turn, hwill take what the coverage frees up, allowing him to create offense. Jacksonville's defender is lined up slightly outside shade of tight end Jake Stoneburner, something Tannehill recognizes pre-snap and realizes Stoneburner has the leverage. From there, he keeps his footwork in rhythm with the concept and anticipates him running into the window behind linebacker Telvin Smith and delivers an absolute strike with impeccable timing.



Pointing back to Tannehill's 40 time and numbers on the ground at A&M, this video is an example of the dual threat ability Tannehill brings to the table. With 911 career rushing yards and five touchdowns, he can extend plays with his feet and poses a threat when he escapes the pocket.

While Tannehill is growing as a player, his mental processing continues to be a glitch in said growth. Many times last year, Tannehill had guys open in tight coverage and he failed to pull the trigger while the opposite was also true, and he held on to the ball waiting for someone to get open, a cardinal sin in the NFL.

Regardless, he's bested his numbers each season, a remarkable feat considering he was forced to begin his career with the likes of Mike Wallace (long removed from the former Steeler version), Brian Hartline, and Reggie Bush. Tannehill has posted back-to-back 4,000 yard, 24 touchdown seasons, but has fumbled the ball a staggering 38 times and tossed 54 interceptions in his four seasons. If Tannehill wishes to be the next $100 million passer, he drastically needs to cut down on the turnovers and improve his undesirable 29-35 record as a starter.

The 2016 season offers serious hope for Dolphins fans with new head coach Adam Gase. Continuity is absolutely key for young passers, and with three offensive coordinators in four years, it's a feat that hasn't stunted Tannehill's growth, a testament to his mental and physical capabilities. The Dolphins' line was absolutely gashed by the blitz last season and it lead to Tannehill taking a beating, but Gase brings a quick-timing system predicated on three-step drops and immediate decision making. Thus, an elite pass blocking offensive line isn't a necessity and makes the Laremy Tunsil decision more of a head scratcher.

2015 first round selection DeVante Parker battled a foot injury for most of last season and struggled to see targets behind a talent receiving corps, so look for him to become the team's number two option with Greg Jennings and Rishard Matthews now gone. Recent reports have Arian Foster taking first team reps, a plus both on the ground and in the air, but adding Kenyan Drake was quite possibly their best move in the draft. He works best in space and was used heavily as a receiver at Alabama, in addition to his impact on the ground that should translate well to the next level. With the litany of weapons at his disposal, expect Tannehill to capitalize on his potential.

Why Todd Gurley is (Currently) Your Rookie of the Year

(Written on 11/1/15)

When the St. Louis Rams sent shockwaves across the NFL by drafting Georgia tailback Todd Gurley with the 10th overall pick in the NFL Draft this past April, just a few months removed from a torn ACL, very few could have foreseen the 21 year old’s early success. “I definitely was excited when they took me at No. 10,” Gurley told the LA Times. “I was kind of shocked.”

Continuing that them of being shocked, let me break down Gurley’s stats through four games. The obvious stat of 442 yards is mind boggling considering that Gurley has toted the rock only 74 times for a 6 yard average (first amongst all rookies), second in the NFL behind Ryan Matthews despite carrying the ball 18 more times. He is also the first rookie since 2005 to run for at least 125 yards in each of first three starts (Tampa Bay’sCadillac Williams last accomplished the feat). Pro Football Focus also listed a multitude of impressive numbers: against the Packers and Cardinals, between 43 and 48 percent of Gurley’s yards came after contact, while a whopping 86.7 percent were churned out against the Browns. PFF also highlights Gurley’s 11 broken tackles against the Browns on only 19 carries; he is fourth among all running backs in broken tackles.

He is also averaging 3.5 yards after first contact, third in the NFL. When running to the right, where the Rams have rookies starting at right guard and right tackle, Gurley has carried the ball 10 times for 95 yards, another impressive stat coupled with the fact that when the Rams are down by 9-16 points, he has carried the ball 23 times for 133 yards (5.8 avg), thus signaling the trust St. Louis has in the rookie. Gurley is also nearly averaging a first down on 1st and 6+, running for 339 yards on 47 carries (7.2 yards). The numbers Oakland Raiders’ receiver Amari Cooper have posted are equally impressive as his impact cannot be overlooked. Considering Gurley’s impact on a team with an average passing and a young, unproven offensive line, he deserves the top vote.

Mid-season All-Pro Team

(Written on 11/5/15)

Now that the NFL is at the half-way point, let’s take a look at the league’s top performers thus far.

Offense-Quarterback: Tom Brady (New England Patriots)

Brady is having a career year, one that rivals that of his 2007 season, ranking first in touchdowns (20), rating (115.8), and yards per game (344), second in yards (2,410), sixth in completion percentage (68.9) all while throwing only one interception, a mind-boggling statistic; he has also completed more than 74 percent of his passes three times and thrown for more than 3 TDs four times this season. In three games against AFC East opponents, Brady has completed 64.9 percent of his passes for 1,177 yards and nine touchdowns, without throwing an interception, for an astounding average of 392 yards and three touchdowns per game. Brady is the head of an offense that is sixth in total offense and second in points, all while maintaining their 7-0 record.

Running back: Devonta Freeman (Atlanta Falcons)

Freeman has come from possibly being replaced by second rounder Tevin Coleman this past May to potential MVP. His 709 rushing yards and whopping nine touchdowns ranks first in the league, while carrying the ball a league high 152 times; his 4.7 yards per carry is third among all running backs with 100+ carries. Despite leading the league in carries, Freeman has only fumbled once this season while also ranking first with 45 runs that have gone for first downs, nine more than the next back. Freeman also has Pro Football Focus‘ third highest overall grade and sixth highest run grade despite the fact he leads the league run snaps by 18. He has also had a major impact in the passing game having caught 40 passes for 353 yards and a touchdown, first and second among all running backs respectively; he has the sixth highest receiving grade among all running backs according to PFF.

Doug Martin (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

Just a few months ago it’s hard to imagine anyone, truthfully, considering Martin an All-Pro after two disastrous, injury-riddled seasons following his stellar 2012 season that saw him rush for 1,454 yards and 11 touchdowns on 319 carries (4.6 avg.) while hauling in 49 passes for 472 yards and a touchdown in all 16 games. Between 2013-2014, Martin played in 17 total games and rushed for 950 yards and three touchdowns on 261 carries (3.6 avg.)doug martin while catching 25 passes for 44 yards, thus playing as a shell of his former self. Martin has resurrected his career as his 132 carries for 612 yards rank sixth and fourth respectively in the NFL. His 4.6 average yards per carry ranks fifth among all running backs with 100+ carries; he ranks second in 20+ yard runs with seven and 11th with 24 rushes that have gone for first downs. PFF has also showcased his impact as his 92.3 overall grade and 89.8 run grade ranks second among all running backs in both categories, all while being on the field for the seventh most run snaps in the league. Martin has also been phenomenal in the passing game with 15 catches for 136 yards and a touchdown and the fourth highest pass block grade among all running backs. Martin has done it all behind a porous offensive line featuring two centers that have received poor and average grades, a guard who has received an average grade, and three tackles that have received two poor grades and an average grade all via PFF.

Fullback: Patrick DiMarco (Atlanta Falcons)

Fullbacks have become something of a dying breed but DiMarco’s impact cannot be overlooked. While he has been the lead blocker for the NFL’s top rusher, DiMarco’s 88.3 overall PFF grade is tops among all fullbacks and is 8.2 points higher than the next. Freeman owes a majority of his success to DiMarco as he has posted a remarkable 91.8 run blocking grade in 116 run snaps, second in the league by one snap. The most impressive aspect? He is a whopping 13.4 points higher than the NEXT fullback; he is also tied for seventh in the running game and has the fourth highest receiving grade.

Wide Receiver: Julio Jones (Atlanta Falcons)

Jones has been nothing short of unstoppable this year. After a stellar 2014 campaign that saw him catch 104 passes for 1,593 yards and six touchdowns, Jones has reeled in 70 passes for 892 yards through eight games, tops in the NFL; he has already matched last season’s touchdown total, good for t-second in the NFL. Jones has been targeted 103 times, second in the NFL, catching 68% of all targets. Jones has also used his explosiveness to put up numbers, ranking fourth in the NFL with 12 catches of 20+ yards, sixth in yards after the catch with 277, and second in receptions that have gone for first downs with 45. PFF has given him the highest overall grade and receiving grade among all receivers while being on the field for the seventh most pass snaps.

DeAndre Hopkins (Houston Texans)

Jones and Hopkins have been 1a and 1b all season long as Hopkins ranks third behind Jones in receptions (66) and yards (870). Hopkins is also t-second in touchdowns with six, t-fifth with 10 catches for 20+ yards, and first with 54 receptions that have gone for first downs. His 92.2 overall grade via PFF ranks fourth among all receivers while his 91.1 receiving grade ranks third while being on the field for a whopping 401 pass snaps, 35 more than the next. While Hopkins has been MVP caliber, he has done so with unbelievably inconsistent and often-times, below average quarterback play, making his numbers that much more impressive.

Tight End: Rob Gronkowski (New England Patriots)

When healthy, Gronk is undoubtedly the best tight end in the game and he has proven that thus far. Although he ranks 12th in the NFL in receptions and yards, he is first among all tight ends and is t-first among all players with seven touchdowns. His 273 yards after the catch are seventh in the league and ranks only behind Travis Kelce among all tight ends; he comes in at second in receptions of 20+ yards and ninth in receptions that have gone for first downs, tied with Cleveland’s Gary Barnidge among all tight ends. Not surprisingly, Gronk’s 97.4 overall grade Pats, Gronk strike quickly-media-1ranks first among all tight ends PFF has graded, 7.1 points more than the next tight end; his 97.9 receiving grade is also first among all tight ends. While Barnidge likely deserves this spot due to his numbers that resemble Gronk’s with nowhere near the same quarterback play, Gronk gets the nod due to his blocking ability. He’s been on the field for 320 pass snaps, third most among all tight ends via PFF, with an 87.6 pass blocking grade, also third among all tight ends. He has been a factor in the run game as well, ranking first among all tight ends with an 82.4 run blocking grade.

Tackle: Tyron Smith (Dallas Cowboys)

Smith has been an elite left tackle for the last two years and the anchor of a dominant Cowboys offensive line that ranks 10th in the NFL in rushing yards despite five different running backs carrying the ball at least five times. In seven games, Smith has only been called for four penalties; only one was a holding call. He has also allowed an exceptionally low three sacks which would leave one to believe how many are truly his fault with Brandon Weeden and Matt Cassel playing quarterback. His 94.8 overall PFF grade ranks first among all offensive tackles and is second behind Joe Thomas in pass blocking by a lowly .5 points. He has posted an astonishing 99.4 run blocking grade as well as Dallas is 10th best when running off the left tackle according to Pro Football Outsiders.

Joe Thomas (Cleveland Browns)

Thomas is arguably the best left tackle since 2007 and he shows no signs of slowing down. He is second behind Smith in PFF’s overall grade, but leads all tackles with a 93.7 pass blocking grade and is third in run blocking while being on the field for the fifth most pass snaps and 11th most run snaps respectively. He has committed a minuscule five penalties, only one of which was a holding. Thomas has only surrendered a mind-blowing half sack which, if he maintained that average, would be one sack allowed all season, two fewer than his all time low.  Thomas’ durability is also impressive as he has started 136 straight games.

Guards: Marshal Yanda (Baltimore Ravens)

Yanda has long been a staple of the Ravens’ success up front and it is no different this year. He is PFF’s top guard with a 93.8 overall grade and has yet to commit a single penalty while only allowing half a sack. He has been on the field for 364 pass snaps, fourth in the league, recording the seventh pass blocking grade. In the run game, his 214 run snaps are sixth most among all guards while recording a league high 94.6 run grade. The Ravens rank fifth when running between their guards according to PFO.

Zack Martin (Dallas Cowboys)

The Cowboys offensive line is still intact with Martin anchoring the interior. Although he has allowed the same amount of sacks committed the same amount of penalties through seven games as he did all of last season, it’s easy to attribute that to the three different quarterbacks that have started for Dallas this season. Nevertheless, Martin is PFF’s second highest rated guard with the highest pass blocking grade in the league while holding the league’s third highest run blocking grade.

Center: Ryan Kalil (Carolina Panthers)

The man in the middle of Carolina’s offensive line has been stellar this year. He is PFF’s highest rated center with the highest run blocking grade, each ahead of the next guy by at least 4 points. His impact in the passing game has been felt too as he ranks seventh in pass protection. Although he missed Monday night’s game against the Colts, Kalil has started six games this year and committed only one penalty and allowed only a single sack.

Defense-Defensive End: J.J. Watt (Houston Texans)

The Watt narrative has yet to show any signs at all of slowing down. Watt’s 8.5 sacks are tied for a league high while his 40 tackles are second amongst all defensive ends. The kicker? Watt is a 3-4 end who is facing more double teams than ever before; he is also tied for ninth in the league in passes defended. While he is technically a defensive end, he would be an interior defender in a true 4-3 and is thus, listed as an interior defender by PFF which has granted him the highest grade among all interior defenders. He has been on the field for a league high 317 pass snaps, and of course possesses PFF’s highest pass rush grade; Watt has also been on the field for a league high 221 run snaps while maintaining the league’s fourth highest grade against the run.

Cameron Jordan (New Orleans Saints)

A bit of a surprise this season, Jordan’s six sacks are fourth in the NFL; he has also defended four passes and forced a fumble along the way. Jordan is PFF’s top edge defender with a 94.8 overall grade coupled with his top pass rush grade while being on the field for the more pass snaps than any other edge defender. He has been stout against the run as well, ranking sixth in run defense while t-fifth for most run snaps.

Defensive Tackle: Kawann Short (Carolina Panthers)

PFT Live: Kawann Short, Eagles talk with Geoff Mosher-media-1Short has been an anchor and a force for the Panthers this season, ranking second in sacks by defensive tackles with five (t-sixth in the NFL). His play making ability has been on display this year with his 27 tackles, four passes defended, and a forced fumble. Short is PFF’s third highest rated interior defender with the fifth highest rated pass rush grade while being on the field for the 11th most pass snaps; his impact against the run has been felt too, ranking 10th in run defense.

Muhammad Wilkerson (New York Jets)

Wilkerson has been a force along the Jets’ line this year, registering five sacks (t-sixth in the NFL), racking up 31 tackles, a forced fumble, and defending four passes. He is PFF’s seventh rated interior defender, has been stout against the run (eighth in the league), and thirteenth in pass rush while being on the field for the third most pass snaps.

Linebackers: Thomas Davis (Carolina Panthers)

While fellow linebacker Luke Kuechly is more valuable to the Panthers via PFF and talent wise, it’s hard to ignore his teammates’ numbers. Davis is 12th in the league with 59 total tackles. He’s been all over the field, registering two sacks, two interceptions, and a forced fumble while defending three passes. His impact in coverage has also been felt as he ranks third among all linebackers in that category via PFF.

Luke Kuechly (Carolina Panthers)

Kuechly has only played in four games this season due to injury but he has made a stellar 46 stops, a per-game average that would give him 184 tackles in 16 games; Kuechly has also recorded an interception and a sack. Furthermore, he has an astounding 99 overall grade by PFF, leading all linebackers while his 94.7 grade against the run and 95.7 grade in coverage are also tops among all linebackers.

Telvin Smith (Jacksonville Jaguars)

Telvin Smith’s pick six nets AFC defensive player of week honors-media-1Despite their struggles, the Jaguars have play makers on both sides of the ball and Smith has been one all season. His 68 tackles rank fifth in the NFL while his play making ability is highlighted by his impressive stat line: a half sack, four passes defended, an interception that went 26 yards for a touchdown, and seven stuffs (when an offensive team attempts a run up the middle that gets completely denied by the defense at or behind the line of scrimmage) for 19 yards.

Cornerbacks: Josh Norman (Carolina Panthers)

Another star of this dominant Panthers defense is Norman who is having a fantastic season. He is tied for second in passes defended (12) and interceptions (four) and leads the league in defensive touchdowns with two; Norman has also forced and recovered a fumble and has done a brilliant job of keeping everything in front of him with only 28 tackles. He is also PFF’s top corner with a 96.1 overall grade and 95.6 cover grade, allowing just 45.9 percent of 37 passes thrown his way to be caught while quarterbacks have a 24.1 passer rating when throwing his way.

Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (New York Giants)

In his eighth season, Rodgers-Cromartie is having a career year in New York. He is t-third in the NFL in interceptions, one of which went for a touchdown, and t-eighth in passes defended while forcing two fumbles and returning one for a touchdown. He is PFF’s sixth overall rated corner, seventh in coverage, and eighth against the run.

Safeties: Charles Woodson (Oakland Raiders)

The Michigan product will surely be a first ballot Hall of Famer when he walks away, but the 39-year-old seems to be saving his best for last. He leads the league in interceptions with five, two of which came against fellow legend Peyton Manning. He has defended the seventh most passes and recorded 33 tackles; Woodson is PFF’s highest rated safety in coverage while being on the field for the fourth most pass snaps.

Reshad Jones (Miami Dolphins)

This rising star has shown improvement since 2013, and has returned both of his interceptions this season for touchdowns. Jones has had countless opportunities to make tackles due to the Dolphins porous run defense (t-21st), making the most of it with a whopping 67 tackles this season all without missing a single one according to PFF. He is also their third highest graded safety this season, 10th in pass coverage (he has only been targeted 10 times this season), and first against the run.

*Minnesota Vikings’ Harrison Smith was a close second

Special Teams-Kicker: Stephen Gostkowski (New England Patriots)

Gostkowski has been absolute nails this season going 17-17 on field kicks including an amazing 6-6 from 40-49 yards out and 3-3 from 50+ including a 57 yarder this season, second longest this season. Even more incredible, Gostkowski is 28-28 on extra points this season, the second most made and attempted this season.

Punter: Johnny Hekker (St. Louis Rams)

His 48.8 yards per punt is sixth in the NFL despite only punting the ball 39 times while his net punting average of 43.7 ranks third. Hekker has yet to have a punt blocked and has dropped 16 punts inside the 20 (second in the league); only two punts have been touch backs (t-third fewest in the league) and he has forced 10 fair catches, t-fifth most in the league.

Returner: Tyler Lockett (Seattle Seahawks)

The Seahawks got exactly what they were looking for in Lockett, a return man who can shift the field. His 356 kick return yards are the sixth most in the NFL while his 105 yard return, which went for a touchdown, is the second longest this season; his 25.4 yard per return is seventh most amongst those with double-digit returns. He has also returned 24 punts for 195 yards, ninth in the NFL, and one for a touchdown.

The State of the Rams Going Forward

(Written on 11/18/15)

A season that was once full of promise appears to be no more

The St. Louis Rams had  a tumultuous off-season, trading franchise quarterback Sam Bradford to the Eagles for fellow quarterback Nick Foles, spending the 10th overall pick on a running back just a few months removed from a torn ACL that was projected to keep him sidelined well into the 2015 season, and acquiring Nick Fairley, the oft-criticized defensive tackle who spent four seasons in Detroit. While the latter two have paid dividends for the Rams, the former has not. Just nine games into his first season as a Ram, head coach Jeff Fisher has pulled the plug on Foles for Case Keenum.

As is the norm in athletics following a monumental trade, the Eagles have gotten the better end of the deal after comparing the two. Via Pro Football Focus, Foles is 32nd in total passing grade, 28th in PFF Passer Rating, 27th in Accuracy Percentage, 39th in Deep Accuracy Percentage, and 21st in Accuracy Under Pressure Percentage. Bradford has bested Foles in all five categories, sitting at 19th, 23rd, 7th, 18th, and 3rd respectively. Foles’ biggest detractors have noted his inconsistency, and as PFF pointed out, “overall, he has played four games with a +4.0 grade or better in his career, but another six with grades worse than -4.0. Three of those games have come this year, including the one that resulted in his benching against the Bears.” Foles recorded only his second 200 yard game of the season last week against the Bears, his first since Week 1 and has only thrown for multiple touchdowns game once this season, tossing three against the Cardinals in Week 4. The Rams are also dead last in passing yards per game with 179.

Case Keenum’s career -10.6 grade is not quite reassuring, although his 2013 season in Houston provided exciting moments for the Texans; his 1,760 yards, nine touchdowns, and 78.2 through eight games in 2013 are all better than Foles’ numbers through nine games this year. Perhaps the most disastrous aspect of Foles’ benching is his contract. Just before the start of the season, St. Louis extended his contract to a 3-year, $24.5 million deal; the Rams are now paying him $6 million this year as opposed to the $1.5 million they would have originally paid him. While things get better Foles, the opposite is true for the Rams as his $1.75 million salary and $6 million roster bonus for next season are already guaranteed meaning if the Rams decide to cut Foles after the season, they will still owe him $7.75 million next year. While the writing for Foles’ Rams career seems to be on the wall, the Rams still receive Philadelphia’s second round pick next year and will actually save $5 million in cap space by cutting him.

Lest we forget, the Rams are still 4-5 and tied for second in the NFC West

With a healthy Gurley and a defense that finds a way to be more consistent (373 yards surrendered to the Redskins and 397 to the Bears), Keenum only has to be average for the Rams to make a playoff push. If Foles had been at least average, there’s no reason the Rams shouldn’t be 7-2: Gurley didn’t start against Pittsburgh which certainly had an affect on their game plan as Foles was below 200 yards with an interception, he was a mere 18-33 with no touchdowns against the Vikings, and threw a whopping four interceptions against the Packers. The Rams have done an adequate job getting Tavon Austin involved in the offense as he and Stedman Bailey (once he returns from injury) provide necessary deep threats while Kenny Britt and Wes Welker are viable third down options. Keenum shouldn’t be asked to do anymore than Foles was, only to be more efficient and take shots down the field all while protecting the ball. Teams will continue to game plan around Gurley, but that doesn’t seem to matter as he is still playing at an extremely high pace. This week provides a very winnable match up against the struggling Ravens, and if Keenum can produce better numbers than Foles, a rather simple task, there is no reason St. Louis can’t win at least eight games and have a shot at the playoffs.

Changes Looming in St. Louis

(Written 12/3/15)

Following another embarrassing and disappointing loss, the St. Louis Rams sit at a pedestrian 4-7. Despite being down only 7-0 at the end of the first quarter, the Rams failed to gain any momentum in hopes of a comeback before succumbing to the Cincinnati Bengals, 31-7. Starting in place of Case Keenum, who is still in concussion protocol and was limited in practice today, quarterback Nick Foles posted an abysmal stat line: 30-46 for 228 yards and three interceptions one of which was returned 24 yards for a touchdown; rookie Sean Mannion eventually got his first reps of the season. When discussing their chances of making the playoffs, head coach Jeff Fisher stated that “mathematically, we’re not eliminated.”

Speaking of Fisher, the Rams are headed for their fourth straight losing season with Fisher at the helm. They must win their last five games to not only make the playoffs, but avoid that daunting fourth losing season; this is no easy task as the Rams face the 9-2 Cardinals, and the surging Buccaneers, 49ers, Seahawks, and Lions. When asked about his job security, Fisher had this to say: “I’ve been doing this for probably short of 20 years, and I’ve never gone into a game or a into a season worried about my job security. That would be unfair to the organization and unfair to the players. So I’m not worried about that.” Now to Fisher’s credit, they played a tough and talented Vikings team and a Ravens team that has lost seven games by an average of only 4.6 points on last second field goals and is 3-0 in a tough division. Regardless, he has six winning seasons to his credit in 19 years as a head coach (his first year in Houston in 1994 he served as an interim). What’s more disappointing is the fact the Rams were 4-3 a month ago and looked like a playoff team despite the porous offensive play. Should the Rams finish with a losing record, it only makes sense to fire Fisher: Fisher will enter his fifth and final year of his contract next season and it is extremely rare for an organization to bring back their coach for a fifth year after four losing seasons. However, Fisher will be due $7 million next year and it is unlikely that owner Stan Kroenke will eat that money by firing him. The Rams are 31st in total offense and last in passing offense; if the season ended today, their 180.9 yards per game would be the fourth lowest in franchise history.

While Kroenke has that decision to make going forward, he announced this morning that he has proposed making a second team his full partner in hopes of getting an NFL franchise to LA. Due to his long history with San Diego Chargers owner Dean Spanos, it seems the Chargers will be his partner in this deal as those in Kroenke’s camp have reported lobbying for a deal involving the Chargers and Rams playing at a $1.86 billion stadium in Inglewood. Kroenke has hurdles to jump through in order to accomplish this: Spanos and Raiders owner Mark Davis are currently committed to building a $1.75 billion in Carson; the NFL requires teams seeking relocation to acquire three-fourths of the league’s 32 owners and both parties are believed to have the nine votes needed to block a team from relocating. Should Spanos ditch Davis for the Rams’ plan, Davis and the Raiders have the power to sue Spanos and the Chargers: under California law, there is a possibility of legal attachment between Spanos and Davis, “preventing him and the team from cutting Davis and the Raiders loose without incurring various potential liabilities” as reported by ProFootballTalk. The wildcard here is St. Louis, who has committed $150 million in addition to Missouri’s $240 million to the building of a new stadium that, if built, has secured National Car Rental as a sponsor to put its name on the stadium to the tune of $158 million over 20 years. There is cause for concern in St. Louis, however. According to a debt repayment schedule submitted by the stadium task force, lead by Governor Jay Nixon, the city will be repaying more money ($215 million) and for much longer (through 2051) than previously reported on top of the $6 million a year that is still being paid to the Edward Jones Dome. The news of Kroenke’s proposition to Spanos  come on the same day he met with Nixon as Kroenke has avoided meeting with supporters of the downtown St. Louis stadium. Kroenke was, recently, also encouraged by NFL commissioner Roger Goodell to begin communicating with Nixon and Dave Peacock, the former Anheuser-Busch executive and co-chairman of Nixon’s stadium task force.

The NFL and members of the league’s influential Committee on Los Angeles Opportunities, pushing for a vote on which team or teams could move, will hold meetings in January to determine who will move.

At 4-8, it's time for the Rams to Look to the Future

(Written on 12/7/15)

In what comes as to surprise to almost anyone, the St Louis Rams dropped their fifth straight game in uninspiring fashion, losing 27-3 to the Arizona Cardinals. The offense sputtered again as Nick Foles posted another miserable stat line: 15-35 (43 percent) for 146 and an interception, averaging 4.2 yards an attempt. The offensive line failed to open any holes for Todd Gurley as he toted the rock nine times for 41 yards, 34 of which came on one run and was not targeted in the passing game. 35 attempts with a quarterback who fails to generate any momentum against nine rushes with a young, talented running back is especially head scratching considering his outing last time these two teams met. Tight end Jared Cook led the team with nine targets (odd considering his consistent ability to drop passes including one on a crucial third down), but Tavon Austin and Bradley Marquez both had three, another odd fact due to the quality of players.

Austin only had one catch for 24 yards and two carries for 14 yards which is upsetting as he will need to be more involved if the offense wishes to score points. The offense only managed nine first downs and committed seven penalties for 104 yards. The defense’s performance was was equally unimpressive and even more uncharacteristic as they allowed 524 yards as Carson Palmer shredded the Rams secondary for 356 yards and two touchdowns while Arizona gained 175 yards on the ground, a disappointing performance by the the Rams often reliable front seven. The defense was bitten by the injury bug as corner Trumaine Johnson and defensive end Robert Quinn were inactive and fellow corner Janoris Jenkins left the game with a concussion and is unlikely to play next week. The absence of linebacker Alec Ogletree and kicker Greg Zurlein are being felt as the Rams have been outscored 58-10 in their last two games.

Sitting at 4-8, the St. Louis Rams have virtually no shot of making the playoffs especially with the Seahawks and 49ers are on the rise and playing at a much higher level. Following the game, Fisher told the St. Louis Post-Dispatch that he’s run out of answers as he looks to complete his 14th losing season in 20 years as a head coach and likely signaling his last season at the helm of the Rams should they finish under .500, Fisher will be one of four coaches since 1941 with at least five straight losing season with one team according to the Elias Sports Bureau. The Rams rank 31st in attendance this year and media members said the Edward Jones Dome was only half-full (if that) as support is dwindling.

It is easy to sit here and point out the negatives surrounding the Rams on a weekly basis, but the narrative gets old, and unless someone can point to the one positive factor surrounding the nucleus of this team (other than the possible relocation), it will continue until they can win and generate some momentum. Many remember my article in October where I was essentially calling Gurley the best thing since sliced bread and almost a shoo-in for Rookie of the Year, but that ship has sailed (Amari Cooper is also playing at another level, while Seahawks running back Thomas Rawls and Tennessee Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota are making strong cases of their own) and I’m glad that I included the word “currently” in the title of that article.

With reports surfacing of interest in quarterbacks  Johnny Manziel and Colin Kaepernick, I’m beginning to wonder how invested owner Stan Kroenke is in building a competitive team. They have a talented, young defense, potential All-Pro running back, and a young offensive line with a bright future but the thought of Manziel or Kaepernick as the Rams’ quarterback going forward is frustrating. Manziel has shown flashes of what he can do on the field, but they have been just that: flashes, not solid evidence of a franchise quarterback. His off the field antics are well documented and it might be time to face the reality that he’s not going to change. While Manziel would likely provide a spark to the offense and sell tickets, he’s best suited in a zone-read scheme that allows him to keep the ball and provides him with more opportunities to make plays outside the pocket. The only issue is the fact that Gurley is not a zone-read running back, and at this point, it’s best to build the offense around him. The same can be said for Kaepernick’s fit in an offense, athough he has proven to be a better passer within the pocket and a better decision maker. I understand Kaepernick was the Niners quarterback when they made a Super Bowl appearance in 2013, but many forget the offensive weapons around him and a defense that was one of the NFL’s best in almost every category; six members of the defense were All-Pro selections in the 2012-2013 season. Kaepernick was especially awful this season as he under and over threw and one-hopped many receivers this season; according to STATS LLC., 47 of his 100 incompletions were the result of a poor throw. He has thrown only six touchdowns against five interceptions.

Should Kroenke retain Fisher, then it’s safe to say he’s given up. In his only start, Keenum was unimpressive and didn’t show any signs of progressing. Even though he returns from his concussion there’s no guaranteeing he will remain healthy and should his next two starts be dismal, I believe Sean Mannion deserves a chance. If Keenum doesn’t generate any spark or momentum, it’s highly unlikely, barring defensive scoring coupled with early-season Gurley performances, the Rams will score enough points to win games against two surging offenses in Detroit and Tampa Bay. Should they reach 4-10, I say start Mannion and give him a chance to show what he can do, especially against the 49ers’ and Seahawks’ defenses. They spent a third round pick on him and there’s no reason he doesn’t deserve a chance should the Rams be sitting at 4-10 with a chance to earn a top five pick on a talented receiver they are in dire need of. Regardless, it’s time to start looking to the future and the Rams need to exhaust all options to win games, and with Mannion being a project he deserves a shot. If all else fails, the Rams will adjust their draft plan accordingly.

Players Rams Should Keep their Eyes on this Off-season

(Written 12/14/15)

Coming off a tremendous victory over the Detroit Lions, the St. Louis Rams are sitting at 5-8 with a highly unlikely chance of earning a top five pick in the 2016 NFL Draft. There is also no guarantee they will remain in the top 10 with a chance to beat the Buccaneers this Thursday and the 49ers in Week 17 (Seattle is playing on another level right now, so their chances of beating them in Week 16 seem rather bleak). Regardless, here are five players fans should pay close attention to this college football postseason and beyond:

Carson Wentz, QB (North Dakota State): Wentz is a high riser, and rightfully so. After siting behind Brock Jensen in 2013, Wentz started all 16 games in 2014 as he lead the Bison to their fourth straight FCS National Championship throwing for 3,111 yards (school record) and 25 touchdowns against 10 interceptions; he also completed 63.7 percent of his passes (his 228 completions and 358 attempts were both school records) and added another 642 yards (NDSU’s second leading rusher) and six touchdowns on the ground. He started 2015 on fire, completing the same percent of his passes for 1,454 yards and 16 touchdowns with a mere two interceptions before suffering a wrist injury on October 17 that has kept him sidelined. With NDSU facing Richmond in the semifinals this Friday, there is a chance Wentz could return for the National Championship. At 6’5, 241 pounds, Wentz possess serious size and arm strength with the ability make throws to any part of the field. 

Pros:

• Despite playing in only six games, Wentz’s accuracy and touch were on display
• Ability to throw to a spot
• Very sound mechanically as he possess strong hips and core that allow him to throw the ball with such power and velocity
• Doesn’t over stride, finishes over the top, and has an over-the-top release that allows very few passes to be batted down by defensive linemen
• Ball explodes out of his hand
• Stands tall in the pocket with slight bend in knees
• Poise and presence in the pocket; senses pressure well and shows ease when moving around within the pocket
• Ability to extend plays and retain good mechanics when throwing on the run
• Excellent decision making; very rarely takes sacks
• Unique combination of speed, athleticism, and strength for his size
• Sells fakes well

Cons:

• Often stands flat footed in the pocket, disallowing him to engage lower half and be ready to hit an open receiver at a given moment
• Drops look lackadaisical; doesn’t set up very quickly
• I would like to see him look off defenders more often
• Consistency in mechanics and selling fakes

Wentz is a first round pick and ultimately could end up in the top 10 with a strong Senior Bowl performance. The Rams’ quarterback issues have been well documented this season as they are in dire need of a franchise quarterback that Wentz could become. With the tendency of quarterbacks to fall in the draft (see: Brady Quinn, Geno Smith, Aaron Rodgers), the Rams should be in a position to take Wentz no matter what pick they are but have two second round picks that could be used to move up in the first round.

Will Redmond, CB (Mississippi State): As I just mentioned, the Rams possess two second round picks which hold great trade value. There is, however, no guarantee they will trade up or down in the draft. Although Trumaine Johnson and Janoris Jenkins are free agents, the Rams have $35.7 million in cap space and it’s highly unlikely St. Louis will give defensive tackles Nick Fairley ($4.75 million in ’15), Williams Hayes (30, $4.48 million), and Eugene Sims ($2.39 million) all pay raises. Linebacker Mark Barron is due for a raise ($2.36 million), safety Rodney McLeod ($2.35 million), Johnson ($1.7 million) and Jenkins ($1.58 million) as those on defense who should see their 2015 salary double next season. Regardless, the Rams are rather thin at talent behind Jenkins and Johnson as Lamarcus Joyner and Marcus Roberson are more of nickle players than they are corners Enter Redmon, the 6’0, 186 pound corner who lead the Bulldogs in interceptions in 2014 with three.

Pros:

• Tremendous straight-line speed
• Great coverage skills and anticipation
• Can run with quick receivers and doesn’t get out-muscled by bigger, more physical receivers
• Tracks the ball well with solid hand-eye coordination
• Mirrors receivers well and doesn’t allow himself to get beat over the top
• Physical and aggressive but disciplined on double moves, play-action
• Swift hips and rotates them quickly, allowing him to take better angles on ball carriers and get his body in position to play the ball in coverage
• High football IQ, recognizes assignments in Zone
• Explosive in jams
• Not afraid to take on blockers
• High motor; plays at the same speed all four quarters
• Fearless

Cons:

• Needs to vastly improve his tackling ability; puts head down and can’t see what he’s tackling, significantly improving his chance of injury
• Doesn’t shed blocks well; tries to run around them rather than fight through them
• Ankle bitter; doesn’t wrap up and will struggle against NFL backs with a combination of power and speed
• Size and range aren’t desirable
• Inconsistent when taking necessary angles to bring down ball carriers
• Looks lost in space from time to time

Redmond is a great athlete and has potential to be a ball-hawking corner despite his lack of size. Unfortunately, Redmond tore his ACL in October and will likely fall in the draft but could be a positive for the Rams should they take him as he is a first round talent.

Tyler Boyd, WR (Pittsburgh): As a mentioned before, the quarterback struggles are well documented. To be fair though, who do they have to throw to? Tavon Austin has been more involved and Kenny Britt is having a solid (enough) year but there is no true, prototypical number one receiver. Boyd has the ability to change that as he is the ACC’s only player to ever record 1,000 season in both his freshman and sophomore seasons (the same conference that has featured the likes of Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Sammy Watkins, and Peter Warrick to name a few). His 85 receptions for 873 yards this season helped him become the school’s all-time leader in receptions (248) and yards (3,308) and first and second in the conference respectively.

Pros:

• Size (6’2, 200 pounds)
• Big play ability
• Consistency (3+ catches for 38+ yards in every game including five with 10+ for 89+)
• Posted 10 catches for 131 yards and a touchdown against Iowa’s Desmond King, the Thorpe Award Winner
• Great YAC earner
• Refined route running; ran full route tree out of multiple sets
• Soft, consistent hands; solid hand-eye coordination
• Long strider who can hit the next gear
• Uses his body well to box out and out-jump defenders
• Averaged 7.7 receptions and 79.4 yards despite being the sole focal point of defensive schemes
• Sound footwork and ability to sell fakes
• Knows when to extend for passes or haul them in close to his body
• Exceptional athlete; 10th in the nation in kick return average (27.6 yards) and first in the ACC in punt return average (10.1) in 2014

Cons:

• Not exceptionally fast; won’t take the top off of defenses
• Rather lean, would like to see him add 10-15 pounds to his frame
• Lacks great quick-twitch
• Occasional focus drops
• Doesn’t possess great strength, will often go down after first tackle attempt
• Poor off-field decisions (DUI arrest during the summer of 2014)

Despite his off-field issue, Boyd embodies the receiver who dominates a game as the absence of running back James Conner left Boyd as the only offensive player defenses keyed on and schemed around. His cons can be refined in the next few months as he is a player who could have a major impact on any team.

Bryce Williams, TE (East Carolina)

The Rams simply need more targets to throw to, and neither Jared Cook or Lance Kendricks have been good at doing just that as Cook has dropped four of 64 targets (6.4% of targets) and Kendricks has dropped three of 30 (10%), which is even worse as he’s seen fewer targets; both drop percentages are among the highest of all tight ends. Williams is a big bodied (6’6, 258 pounds), sure handed tight end who was a First Team All-AAC choice this season.

Pros:

• 41 of his 96 career catches went for 10 or more yards
• Great numbers (58 receptions for 588 yards and four touchdowns)
• YAC earner
• Smooth route runner who can find open windows
• Faster and stronger than most linebackers
• Great size/speed combination
• Tremendous catch radius
• Moves and catches passes like a receiver
• Strong hands
• Good awareness and vision
• Moves very well in open space
• Is a solid 258, very little body fat
• Had multiple catches in each game, 5+ seven times highlighting his consistency
• Showed tremendous signs of progress from freshman to senior season

Cons:

• Is more of a receiver than blocker
• A little too lean; 5-7 extra pounds would make a true threat
• Lacks power for someone his size
• Questionable functional strength
• I wonder if he would put the same numbers in a Power 5 conference

Williams is an intriguing prospect that will likely be available in the third round. His versatility allows him to line up split-out, as an H-Back, or a three point stance; he will need to refine his run blocking ability but should still be better than both Cook and Kendricks in that department as well.

Jack Allen, C (Michigan State): Tim Barnes has been a disappointment all season, ranking 30th among all centers overall with some of the NFL’s worst run and pass blocking grades (all via Pro Football Focus). Barnes, 27, will be a free agent this season and is not worth resigning at this point as he has been nothing but an average (at best) player his entire career. Barrett Jones was cut and Barnes’ backup Demetrius Rhaney is completely unproven. Allen has made 46 career starts (41 at center), allowing a mind-boggling three sacks in 47 career games. The Rimington Trophy Finalist has been invited to the Senior Bowl and is a two-time All-Big Ten First Team selection.

 Pros:

• Extremely high football I.Q.; can recognize and pick up blitz
• Toughness and durability is highlighted by his 46 career starts
• Unparalleled level of consistency
• Functional strength and anchor
• Uses size and strength to engage blockers and generate drive
• Solid technique

Cons:

• Lacks physical tools
• Will struggle against bigger and stronger defensive tackles
• Often too aggressive and will fall off blocks; not a great bender
• Balance
• Can be dominated at point of attack and will need to improve his pad level

Allen is quite a project with tools that need to be developed or refined but has quality experience against some of college football’s toughest and most talented fronts. His level of consistency and durability makes him an intriguing prospect with a high ceiling.