Rams vs. Bucs a Look to the Future

(Written on 12/16/15)

The St. Louis Rams have looked uneventful and uninspired this season but don’t tell them that. Following a thrilling 21-14 victory over the Detroit Lions this past Sunday, they enter Thursday’s Prime Time match-up against the 6-7 Tampa Bay Buccaneers with some momentum. Rookie running back Todd Gurley found his stride again, carrying the ball 16 times for 140 yards and a touchdown; four of their wins have come when his carries reach double defense. Despite a depleted defense, the Rams held an offense with plenty of firepower to a lowly 14 points, their third lowest offensive outing this season. Receiver Calvin Johnson was held to one reception.

While the Rams scored a huge victory, being featured on Thursday Night Football’s Color Rush is exposure they, and the Bucs, deserve. Tamps Bay is coming off a disastrous 2-14 record in 2014 and was at the forefront of the most discussed and debated NFL Draft’s. Florida State quarterback Jamies Winston was regarded as an unbelievable, can’t-miss prospect that seems to be living up to the bill as he has guided them to a 6-7 season. The Buccaneers have built a strong defense but their offense is a collection of pass catchers in receivers Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson and tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins and running back Doug Martin who is proving that his 2012 campaign was no fluke as 2013 and 2014 were decimated by injuries.

On paper, this isn’t much of an intriguing Prime Time game; 5-8 vs. 6-7 isn’t’ exactly compelling football. It is, however, a match-up of two young, talented teams as the Rams rank first (24.94 years per player) and the Bucs rank 11th (25.91) in youngest roster. The Rams Opening Day offensive line featured three rookies while Gurley and Winston are showing signs that they could be the best at their respective positions in the next years, and beyond. Evans and ASJ is only in their second seasons and Martin still has four years before he hits the magical age of 30, the seemingly inevitable decline of running backs. While the uniforms are disappointing and completely unappealing, sit back and admire the young talent on the field this Thursday.

4-8 Not the Only Similarities Between Lions and Rams

(Written on 12/11/15)

In what is arguably the most headline-less NFL match-up in Week 14, the St Louis Rams will host the Detroit Lions as each try to improve to 5-8. While the Lions have been dominant through the air, the Rams have gotten it down on the ground as both rank ninth in the NFL in their respective statistical categories. The same can be said for their lack of dominance in the other offensive aspects as Detroit ranks 31st in rushing yards per game and St. Louis is last in passing yards per game. Both franchises are on their second offensive coordinator this season, proving to be a wise decision for Detroit highlighted by the 31 more points they’ve scored in the five games since Joe Lombardi’s firing, than the first five games of the season. While Lions rookie running back Ameer Abdullah isn’t the same talent that fellow rookie running back Todd Gurley of the Rams is, both have bright future ahead and have had quite an impact on their respective offensives; to put the icing on the cake, Rams defensive tackle Nick Fairley spent the first four seasons of his career with the Lions. The similarities run much deeper, however.

Ohio is the birthplace of both franchises as the Portsmouth Spartans began operations in 1929 while the Cleveland Rams were up and running 234 miles south seven years later. In 1934, a group led by Detroit radio executive George Richards bought the Spartans, struggling financially, for$7,952.08 and moved them to Detroit and renamed them the Lions as an ode to their professional baseball team, the Detroit Tigers. Both franchises moved to the National Football League just one year after existence, the Lions in 1930 and the Rams in 1937.

The 50s were high points for the franchises as the Rams won an NFL Championship in 1951 and played in four between 1949-1955 while the Lions defeated the Cleveland Browns in the NFL Championship the very next year. The Browns would continue their tear of NFL Championships, defeating the Lions in ’53 and ’54 before defeating who else in ’55? The Los Angeles Rams. Both teams were quarterbacked by Hall of Famers Bobby Layne (Lions) and Norm Van Brocklin and Bob Waterfield (Rams) while Tobin Rote became a star quarterback for the Lions following the 1957 playoffs after the Lions traded Layne, thus ensuing “The Curse of Bobby Layne” in 1958: the Lions have won one playoff games (1991) since the trade.

Fast forward to the 80s as both teams were lead by phenomenal running backs Billy Sims (Lions, drafted in 1980) and Eric Dickerson (Rams, drafted in 1983) as both franchises experienced success. The Lions made the playoffs in 1982 and 1983, their first consecutive playoff appearances since 1953-1954. In seek of change after a disappointing stretch from 1979-1982, the Rams hired USC great John Robinson in 1983 who, coupled with Dickerson, made the playoffs six straight times including an NFC Championship game appearance in 1985. The previous year was a completely different season on both sides of the spectrum for the fellow running back: while Dickerson ran for an NFL record 2,105 yards, Sims suffered a career ending injury that lead a period of futility for the Lions from 1984-1988.

Change abounded for both teams during the 90s with the emergence of running back Barry Sanders. One of the greatest players of all-time, Sanders was the driving force behind the Lions’ playoff appearances in 1991, 1993-1995, 1997, and 1999; Lions guard Mike Utley also suffered a career ending injury against the Los Angeles Rams during the 1991 season. No matter Sanders’ talents, the Lions only advanced past the first round of the playoffs once. After moving to St. Louis in 1995, the Rams assembled the Greatest Show on Turf lead by quarterback Kurt Warner and a player of Sanders’ talents in running back Marshall Faulk that propelled them to a Super Bowl victory in 1999. The Rams would ride that wave until 2005, when things began to fall apart.

The 21st century is marked by poor ownership, coaching, and draft classes. While both franchises experienced success early on (the Lions made the playoffs in 2000-2001 without Sanders and the Rams made another Super Bowl appearance in 2001), the Lions didn’t win a single game on the road from 2001-2003, an NFL record 24 straight games that was a result of Matt Millen’s 31-81 record as team president. 2007 was an unfortunate turn of events as Detroit started 6-2 before fading and finishing 7-9 and St. Louis went 3-13 in their first year under Scott Linehan after going 8-8 the year before under Mike Martz. The next year was even worse for Detroit as they became the first NFL team to ever finish 0-16; not surprisingly, the Rams weren’t much better as they finished 2-14 and fired Linehan after an 0-4 start before promoting defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. Despite finding their franchise quarterback in Matt Stafford the 2009 Draft, the Lions finished with the second worst record in the NFL at 2-14. The Rams were the only worse team at 1-15 as they took Sam Bradford with the first overall pick the next year, but did not become the franchise quarterback Stafford has materialized into. Both have averaged five wins a season since 2000 which is attributed to those poor drafts I mentioned early as an awful stretch occured for the Lions bewteen 2001-2005 that featured Jeff Backus, Joey Harrington, Charles Rodgers, and Mike Williams. St. Louis was equally awful from 2002-2009, featuring Robert Thomas, Tye Hill, Jason Smith, and Adam Carriker.

Records and stats out the window, this should be an interesting game showcasing young talent for years to come.

Recapping the 2015 St. Louis Rams Season

(Written on 1/4/16)

After finishing 7-9, let’s take a look at the positives and negatives from this season.

Negatives:

• The Rams finished under .500 for the fourth time in as many years under head coach Jeff Fisher; he has not coached a team to a winning record since 2008.
• The offense was abysmal, ranking 29th in points and last in total yards
• Two of the Rams’ 14 eligible linemen finished average or better according to Pro Football Focus: Garrett Reynolds and Rob Havenstein
• Nick Foles failed. Miserably.
• Jared Cook (is anyone really surprised?) had a 5.3% drop rate, finishing with the 12th worst receiving grade via PFF and 55th among 72 eligible tight ends
• The Rams failed to have a receiver go for 1,000 yards for the eighth year in a row
• The Rams finished their 12th straight season with a negative point differential, an NFL record
• Their 5.7 pass efficiency ratio is tied for the NFL’s second lowest mark this season
• They finished with the sixth most penalties per game
• 25.51% of all drives went three and out, the fifth highest rate in the NFL
• Their 25.9 3rd Down efficiency percentage was the NFL’s lowest mark
• 59 of 429 rushing attempts were stuffs (13.8%), the highest rate in the NFL
• 22.58% of field goals were missed, the third highest mark in the NFL; three field goals were blocked, the second most in the NFL
• The 74.1 team passer rating ranks last in the NFL

Positives:

• Todd Gurley was better than advertised: the rookie sensation finished with the NFL’s third most rushing yards, second most touchdowns, and most 40+ yard runs despite missing three games
• Benny Cunningham’s 714 kick return yards were the fifth most in the NFL
• Their 18 sacks allowed was an NFL low and an improvement from the 47 allowed in 2014
• Trumaine Johnson returned seven interceptions for 136 yards, the second most in the NFL; those seven interceptions were also the second most
• Gurley’s five 100+ rushing yard games are tied for second in the NFL
• Johnny Hekker was first in punt yard average, punt yard net average, and punts downed inside the 20, becoming he first punter in NFL history to do so while 15 of his punts were downed inside the 10 (t-third most); he also lead the league in punts fair caught
• Mark Barron forced the NFL’s third most fumbles; his 16 run stuffs were tied for first while the 29 stuff yards were the fifth most
• The Rams finished with the fifth best secondary according to PFF; Johnson was PFF’s fifth highest graded corner and lead the league in lowest QB rating allowed (47.4)
• The defense allowed opponents to make 34.7% of third down attempts, the sixth lowest rate; they were tied for 10th in opponent scoring efficiency percentage
• Their 4.6 rushing yards per attempt was tied for third most
• Aaron Donald finished with the highest defensive grade in PFF history; he was the highest rated defender against the run and in pass rush
• Gurley became only the third rookie running back since 2000 to make the Pro Bowl and became the third rookie back in franchise history to run for 1,000 yards
• James Laurinaitis eclipsed 1,000 career tackles
• Three players eclipsed 1,000 all-purpose yards (Cunningham, Gurley, and Tavon Austin)

Rams, Chargers Win Relocation Bid

(Written on 1/12/16)

Despite St. Louis’ efforts to keep the Rams in St. Louis (the St. Louis Board of Aldermen passed a measure to put about $150 million in city money toward the proposed $1 billion-plus stadium on the city’s north riverfront on December 18, 2015), owner Stan Kroenke was able to push the Rams to the 24 necessary votes from the 32 owners to relocate to Los Angeles after 21 years as the final tally was 30 for, two against. Originally, the St. Louis stadium task force, led by Dave Peacock and Bob Blitz, made final changes to the St. Louis Stadium proposal which included an addition of an extra $100 million from the NFL, which brought the league’s commitment to $300 million to make the project work.

Because of the distrust between Kroenke and Chargers’ owner Dean Spanos, the Chargers now have until January 2017 to join the Rams in Inglewood should they so choose. This allows them the opportunity to try one final time to stay in San Diego; should the Chargers stay put, the Raiders will then have a chance to join the Rams in Inglewood. The Chargers’ desired location in Carson, where the Chargers and Raiders wished to share a venue, is the sole reason the Rams and Chargers must now come together to reach an agreement: in Inglewood, Spanos would be paying Kroenke to play. At the same time, Kroenke had to defeat Disney CEO Robert Iger and his ESPN subsidiary that gives the NFL $2 billion per year for the rights to televise Monday Night Football. He personally attended the ownership meeting and lobbied the league to adopt the Carson plan as would have been directly involved in the stadium construction with the right to become a minority owner of the Chargers or Raiders.

While the new Inglewood stadium likely won’t be completed until 2019, it is assumed they will play in  L.A. Memorial Coliseum. As commissioner Roger Goodell stated, “In 2019 they will be opening in a new stadium which we are all, as ownership, very excited about — the kind of facility that we believe will be extraordinarily successful in the Los Angeles market. It’s more than just a stadium, it’s an entertainment complex.” Though the cost of the Inglewood stadium proposed by Kroenke is an estimated $1.86 billion, officials and owners say the cost would likely exceed $2 billion by a significant amount, thus making it the most expensive venue in U.S. sports history. At three million square feet, including identical locker rooms, office space and owner’s suites for two teams, it would also be the NFL’s largest stadium. The project would be the centerpiece of a 298-acre entertainment, retail and housing development, something dubbed an “NFL Disney World.” Kroenke has also stated he wishes to hold the NFL Combine and Super Bowl in his venue which seats 70,000 and can expand to 100,000 for such an event.

Los Angeles Rams News and Notes

(Written on 1/19/16)

While writing this title, I noticed it began with “St. Louis.” Clearly this is going to take some getting used to. Regardless, let’s take a look at some news surrounding L.A.’s re-appointed franchise.

• With the Philadelphia Eagles appointing Doug Pederson as their new head coach, their current interim head coach and offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur has been requested to be interviewed by the Rams for the offensive coordinator position. The Eagles are also (reportedly) interested in hiring Frank Reich to replace Shurmur as Shurmur would be a perfect fit for the Rams; Shurmur was the Rams’offensive coordinator in 2009 and 2010 when the Rams went 3-29. Quarterback Nick Foles went to a Pro Bowl in 2013 under Shurmur.
•  Running back Todd Gurley was named the Pro Football Writers of America Rookie of the Year. Gurley’s 1,106 rushing yards were third most in the NFL while running for 10 touchdowns; he also added 21 receptions for 188 yards. Gurley is the first Ram since Sam Bradford (2010) be PFWA Rookie of the Year.
• On Monday, the Rams and Chargers met for the first time and conducted a meeting regarding their two-team deal. It’s been reported that they are working to finalize their Inglewood deal.
• Owner Stan Kroenke reportedly took out a $1 billion loan from JP Morgan Chase for the stadium’s construction. The Inglewood stadium is expected to soar to a North American professional record cost of $2.66 billion.
• Gurley joined right tackle Rob Havenstein to the Pro Football Writers all-rookie team.
• Season tickets for the 2016 season went on sale yesterday, and former Lakers star Magic Johnson was the first person to put his $100 deposit down; he then took to Twitter to show his support. Per Nick Wagoner, 5,000 deposits were made within the first five minutes of sale before another 5,000 through the first hour.

Los Angeles Rams Off-season Plan

(Written on 12/30/15)

The summary of the Rams' season has been talked to death, and I don't need to go into detail about their offensive woes. Regardless, there are changes to be made, contracts to be restructured, and roster moves to be considered. Here, I will discuss what possibilities to look forward to this off-season.

Offensively, the first thing that should be done is cutting tight end Jared Cook who is due $8.3 million in 2016. Throughout his career, Cook has been an inconsistent pass catcher and sub-par run blocker; he is Pro Football Focus' 55th rated tight end this season. To put things in perspective, Cook's contract is valued at $35.1 million, the ninth highest among all tight ends. Those making less? Delanie Walker ($17.5 million), Gary Barndige ($12.3 million), Tyler Eifert ($8.256 million), Ben Watson ($4.95 million) , and Zach Ertz ($5.379 million), all who have caught more passes for more yards and more touchdowns this season. Ultimately, cutting Cook after June 1st will save the Rams $7 million and give them a total of $43.3 million in cap space. Ladarius Green and Craig Stevens will both be free agents at a much cheaper price.

Up front, Week 16 hero center Tim Barnes will be a free agent who is not worth re-signing. He made four starts in 2013 as he continued to struggle in run blocking and pass protection before playing in only nine snaps in 2014; he beat out the likes of Demetrius Rhaney, Eric Kush, and Barrett Jones who was later cut. Barnes is PFF's 26th rated center as the Rams are better suited to look for a replacement in the draft due to the lack of upgrade center's entering free agency have to offer. One possibility is cutting right guard Rodger Saffold, who is due $6 million next season but underwent surgery to repair a torn labrum after five games; Saffold has played in only 68 of 96 career games, starting in 65. Coupled with Cook, cutting Saffold will give the Rams $48.388 million in cap space. This allows St. Louis to pursue free agents Evan Mathis and Ramon Foster, as rookie Cody Wichmann still needs to develop but has shown promise after starting in six games. I don't envision the Rams resigning receivers Brian Quick and Wes Welker, let alone anything outside of a one year deal.

Now, the quarterback struggles are well documented and we know the fact that the Rams are 7-8 with their quarterback play is admirable. Not all the blame, however, deserves to fall on them due to the rather weak receiving corp. Cutting Nick Foles leaves the Rams with $7 million in dead money despite his awful play as Case Keenum will likely go into next season as the projected starter (I'm banking this on the belief he will be re-signed). While Keenum's play has improved during Rob Boras' time as the offensive coordinator, he has managed the game more than he has made an impact. Quarterbacks Brock Osweiler and Kirk Cousins will both be free agents at the end of the season, and will likely seek $6 million+ a year. Both are young (25 and 27 respectively) and both have shown the ability to be franchise quarterbacks, another direction the Rams could head. On the contrary, they are currently sitting at 15th in the 2016 draft, the likes of Carson Wentz, Jared Goff, and Paxton Lynch will likely be off the board but with two second round picks and Sneads' willingness to move or down, the Rams have the ammunition to get their quarterback. Outside of Alshon Jeffery, there are no free agent receivers that are true number one's, an aspect the Rams so desperately desire.

What seems like the best possible scenario is signing Osweiler or Cousins and taking a receiver (or two) in the draft as the Rams try to build and progress with the NFL's youngest roster. However, General Manager Les Snead has made it known he wants to build through the draft which would likely mean a quarterback in the first and receiver in the second. On the other hand, signing one of the aforementioned quarterbacks would allow the Rams to trade up to take Ole Miss receiver Laquon Treadwell if need be; TCU's Josh Doctson and Pitts' Tyler Boyd are possible options in the second. The same can be said about trading up to take a quarterback, but will likely take their first and both second rounders to do so.

Things get interesting on the other side of the ball as corners Janoris Jenkins and Trumaine Johnson will both be free agents. While both have improved, Johnson has allowed the lowest passer rating in the NFL when thrown at and is tied for second with seven interceptions. He is in the last year of his four year/$3.04 million contract, and will likely seek a four year/$17 million+ year where his base salary will annually increase. As for Jenkins, he has stated publicly that he will likely test free agency, an incentive for the Rams to franchise tah him: Jenkins has improved each season and deserves a major raise. Letting Jenkins walk, who will probably want more than Johnson, isn't necessarily a bad thing as they have talent behind him. Second year corner E.J. Gaines started 15 games at corner as rookie, racking up 70 tackles, 14 defended passes, and two interceptions before suffering a Lisfranc injury in August, causing him to miss all of the 2015 season. Fellow corner Lamarcus Joyner is coming into his own after a 2014 rookie campaign where he started one game and played in 10, recording 40 tackles, a sack, and two defended passes. Due to the injuries that have affected the Rams' secondary this season, he has started five and played in 15 with 65 tackles, two sacks, and six passes defended. Fellow backfield mate Rodney McLeod signed a one year/$2.365 million prior to the season after finishing as PFF's 18th rated safety. McLeod has racked up 75 tackles and forced three fumbles, bettering his numbers from last season, while intercepting a pass. He too could be due for another pay day.

Longtime Ram and fan favorite Chris Long faces the possibility of being cut. Due $14.25 million in 2016, the defensive end has started all but 12 games between 2008-2013, a true model of consistency. However, he has started a mere 17 games in the last two seasons and will be 31 when the 2016 season starts, reducing his production. Cutting Long before the season starts will save the Rams an astounding $12 million despite the fact he's entering a contract year. Fellow defensive linemen Eugene Sims and William Hayes will likely be re-signed to two year deals as they play a role in the Rams' rotation and success up front. One of my favorites, Mark Barron (PFF's 17th rated linebacker), is expected to cash in after tallying 74 tackles, 15 tackles for loss, five passes defended, three forced fumbles, and a sack as a key member of their defenses.

On the other hand, fellow linebacker James Laurinaitis faces the same possible fate as Long. A similar model of consistency, Laurinaitis has started every game of his career since 2009 but has seen his production dip since 2012. He made 108 stops while registering a sack, safety, forced fumbles, and an interception but finished as PFF's 83rd linebacker. Cutting Laurinaitis will save nearly $6 million, and with linebackers such as Bruce Irvin and Danny Trevathan entering free agency, who are both currently making less than Laurinaitis, the Rams have targets to pursue. Expect kicker Greg Zurlein to be re-signed as well.

Quick Hit NFL 2015-2016 NFL Preview

AFC East
1. New England Patriots (11-5): Losing Tom Brady for the first four games could see the Patriots start 2-2 but with so many weapons on both sides of the ball, there is no need for Patriots fans to fret. The additions of tight end Scott Chandler, defensive end Jabaal Sheard, and defensive tackle Malcom Brown boost an offense that was 11th in total offense and fourth in points and a defense that was 13th and eighth respectively; the secondary takes a big step back with the loss of Brandon Browner and Darrelle Revis. The Pats haven't won fewer than 12 games since 2009, and despite a revamped division, New England is still the best team far and away.

2. Miami Dolphins (9-7): The progression of Ryan Tannehill is huge for this success as he became the first quarterback in franchise history since Dan Marino to throw for 4,000 yards, with a whopping 17 different starting quarterbacks between them. Tannehill has weapons in Lamar Miller, Jarvis Landry, Greg Jennings, DeVante Parker, and Jordan Cameron but they must be better up front. The defense made massive naive with the signing of defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh who, along with Cameron Wake, form a formidable defensive line. The defense allowed the 20th most points, a number they must build on. Despite facing four 2014 playoff teams, the Phins should reach their first winning season in seven years. 

3. Buffalo Bills (8-8): Newly acquired Matt Cassel figures to start at quarterback but whoever new head coach Rex Ryan tabs as the starter (Cassel, Tyrod Taylor, or EJ Manuel) will have a plethora of play makers at receiver and incredible depth at running back lead by new addition LeSean McCoy; they must improve on their 26th best total offense to reach double digit wins. The defense was top 10 in total defense, passing defense, points allowed, sacks (54 were league leading), and interceptions as they helped carry this team to nine wins last season with arguably the league's best defensive line. Should they avoid the injury bug to a certain extent and get even decent quarterback play, this team is capable of 10 wins and a playoff birth. 

4. New York Jets (6-10): The trainwreck that is the New York Jets has reared it's ugly head after starting quarterback Geno Smith broke his jaw in a locker room altercation. Smith made vital strides as the season wore on, which makes his loss (6-8 weeks) a much bigger issue; first year head coach Todd Bowles will turn to Ryan Fitzpatrick, whose 56.7 QBR in 2014 was better than that of Alex Smith, Matt Stafford, and Andy Dalton, to improve the 28th best scoring offense. The addition of receivers Brandin Marshall and Devin Smith, running back Stevan Ridley, and guard James Carpenter form an impressive offense. The sixth best defense added arguably the 2015 Draft's best prospect, Leonard Williams, and bolstered their secondary with the signing of corners Revis, Antonio Cromartie, and Buster Skrine and safety Marcus Gilchrist in an effort to improve their six interceptions last season (30th in the NFL). A first year and head coach and starting quarterback who figures to miss at least a fourth of the season is not a good mix but with their major additions on both sides of the ball could lead to a .500 record at best. 

AFC North

1. Baltimore Ravens (10-6): Perhaps the biggest loss for Baltimore was offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak, whose balanced offense didn't require quarterback Joe Flacco to carry the team due to a string running game. Enter new OC Marc Trestman who established a pass-heavy offense in the CFL and then with the Chicago Bears. Despite running back Justin Forsett's breakout season last year (1,266 yards, 5.4 average, and eight touchdowns), there is very little depth behind him as well as the receiver position with the loss of Torrey Smith and a 36 year old Steve Smith; rookies Breshad Perriman and Maxx Williams figure to be an integral part of the passing game. Defensively, expect them to bring pressure often in an attempt to play (improved) man coverage with athletic corners Jimmy Smith and Ladarius Webb returning from injury-riddled seasons; the domination on defense continued after finishing eighth in total defense and sixth in points. Outside of Pittsburgh, Baltimore should sweep the division and reach the playoffs for the seventh time in eight seasons. 

2. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6): The offense's Big Three, quarterback Ben Roethlisburger, running back Le'Veon Bell, and receiver Antonio Brown, make form a lethal combination that will statically be in the top five at their respective positions; new additions Denagelo Williams and receiver Sammie Coats also look to play big role in Pittsburgh's offense (Bell was suspended for the first two games of the season and Coats joins the league's deepest receiving corp. The defense added corner Brandon Boykin after finishing 27th against the pass and should offer a major upgrade, while drafting fellow corners Senquez Golson and Doran Grant. Taking Bud Dupree in the first round should also provide an immediate impact on the defensive line as an edge rusher. Pittsburgh faces eight playoff teams from 2014 and play in arguably the NFL's toughest division. Getting to 10 wins will be a struggle but they have the weapons to do so.

3. Cincinnati Bengals (9-7): Andy Dalton has lead Cincy to the playoffs in each of his four seasons but have all resulted in losses in the Wild Card round as this season could be the quarterback's last if he can't get them over the hump. Dalton has superstars in receiver A.J. Green, who has been one of the NFL's most elite at his position the last four seasons, and running back Jeremy Hill who ran for 1,124 yards and nine touchdowns on only 222 carries (5.1 average) last season; drafting Cedric Ogbuehi and Jake Fisher should revamp their offensive line. The additions of defensive end Michael Johnson and linebacker and A.J. Hawk should improve a defense that was 20th against both the run and the pass and last in sacks; the Bengals also get defensive tackle Geno Atkins back at full health. The Bengals have a grueling second half but after a 10-5-1 season I expect them to take a step back in what likely be Marvin Lewis' final year at the helm.

4. Cleveland Browns (6-10): Brian Hoyer seemed like a better option than Josh McCown at quarterback after McCown crashed and burned in Tampa Bay with a better array of weapons. A young, athletic receiving corp has help in new additions Dwayne Bowe, Brian Hartline, and Rob Housler. The defense as the strong point after finishing eighth against the pass, ninth in points, and second in interceptions lead by elite corner Joe Haden. Cleveland took defensive tackle Danny Shelton to in the first round to play the A gap and generate a push after finishing 27th in sacks and last against the rush; bringing in veteran free agents Tramon Williams (corner) and Randy Starks (defensive tackle) provide boosts to the defense. If Hoyer were still the starting quarterback, this could be an eight or nine win team with the numerous weapons and stout defense. McCown has a lot to prove, and if he doesn't get the job, Johnny Manziel may be the guy.

AFC South
1. Indianapolis Colts (12-4): Andrew Luck is one of the NFL's premiere quarterbacks with the most yards and second most touchdowns in NFL history through three years. New receivers Phillip Dorsett and Andre Johnson provide serious at depth at that position while new running back Frank Gore (1,000+ yards in eight of last nine seasons) figures to be Indy's first 1,000 yard rusher since 2007. The defense brought in defensive end Kendall Langford from St. Louis and linebacker Trent Cole from Philadelphia to build on a defense that was 11th in total defense and 19th in points allowed; they also get Arthur Jones back at full strength after missing seven games last season. The Colts are a Super Bowl favorite, and rightfully so in a weak division; they will walk their way to a fourth straight post season appearance.

2. Houston Texans (8-8): Bill O'Brien has this team headed in the right direction but they have yet to resolve their quarterback situation. Hoyer was 7-6 as starter in Cleveland last season but had the 27th best QBR, opening the door to a competition between he and Ryan Mallett. The offense will still be dominated by the running game and star running back Arian Foster, who rushed for 1,246 yards despite missing three games. They brought in Nate Washington and Cecil Shorts III and had one of the biggest Draft steals, taking Jaelen Strong in the third round, but the loss of Andre Johnson will be felt. They made a big splash defensively, landing free agent safety Rahim Moore and defensive tackle Vince Wilfork in an effort to provide more opportunities and help for the NFL's best defensive player, J.J. Watt; they look to improve on their 21st best pass defense. The only thing holding Houston back is a solid quarterback, meaning they will need the oft-injured Foster to do most of the load on the offense. The defense will again be the catalyst for another .500 season.

3. Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11): The jury is still out on quarterback Blake Bortles whose 25.2 QBR was the fifth lowest by a rookie since 2006. The talent is there however, and the signing of tight end Julius Thomas and drafting of running back T.J. Yeldon provides other weapons with emerging receivers Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns; the offensive line was also improved with the signing of right tackle Jeremy Parnell and center Stefan Wisniewski. The offense is vastly better and in an attempt to improve after finishing 31st in total yards and passing and last in points. The defense finished 26th in total defense, 27th in rushing, 22nd in passing, 26th in points, and 30th in interceptions as they turned to free agents Dan Skuta (linebacker), Jared Odrick (defensive tackle), and Davon House (corner back) to bolster a weak group. Bortles' progression is astronomically important to the Jaguars' future as they should make bigger strides and be a potential playoff team in 2016.

4. Tennessee Titans (4-12): The Titans grabbed their quarterback of the future in Oregon's Marcus Mariota and surrounded him with adequate weapons. Running backs Dexter McCluster and Bishop Sankey are athletic backs who will have an impact in the passing game while tight end Delanie Walker is coming off a career year (63 catches for 890 yards and four touchdowns). Receiver Kendall Wright was a 1,000 yard receiver in 2013 and has the potential to reach that mark while fellow receiver Justin Hunter is primed for a breakout; they also signed receivers Harry Douglas and Hakeem Nicks and tight end Anthony Fasano and drafted receiver Dorial Green-Beckham. After finishing 27th in total defense and 29th in points allowed, Tennessee secured linebacker Brian Orakpo, safety Da'Norris Searcy, and corner Perrish Cox. The Titans revamped both sides of the ball and players will be more comfortable in Wisenhunt's second year, but they are still at least two years from being a true contender as Mariota will take his bumps and bruises and make rookie mistakes.

AFC West
1. Denver Broncos (10-6): In Peyton Manning's three years in Denver, the Broncos have compiled the NFL's best record over that period of time with a 38-10 record. The loss of Julius Thomas will be felt but they retained receiver Demaryius Thomas and have underrated weapons in Emmanuel Sanders and Cody Latimer. They also signed free agent tight end Owen Daniels this past offseason and figures to be an integral part of the offense along with running back C.J. Anderson. Denver brought in Wade Phillips to implement his 3-4 defense and allow edge rushers Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware to have monster seasons; first round pick Shane Ray will likely make his way into the rotation and have an impact on a defense that was third in total defense, second against the run, ninth against the pass, and 16th in points. Peyton is getting older but the Broncos have the pieces to win the division in what likely be his final season.

2. San Diego Chargers (9-7): Quarterback Phillip Rivers earned a four year extension this offseason, likely signaling his retirement as a long time Charger. His illustrious career has seen both playoff successes and failures but this year he has a chance to get San Diego back to the playoffs with new running back Melvin Gordon, guard Orlando Franklin, and receivers Stevie Johnson and Jacoby Jones. There are question marks defensively after finishing 26th against the run, 28th in interceptions, and 29th in sacks and no new additions in the off season, although there are playmakers in the secondary in Jason Verrett and Eric Weddle. The Chargers have a fairly tough schedule and a rather unimproved defense personnel wise, leading to their fourth 9-7 season in the last six years.

3. Kansas City Chiefs (9-7): While quarterback Alex Smith has been efficient, he has not been asked to do much (25th in pass attempts since 2012) and will not get this team over the hump until he does so. Bringing Jeremy Maclin in will provide Smith another weapon outside tight end Travis Kelce while the addition of guards Ben Grubbs and Paul Fanaika will boost the offensive line. The defense is undoubtedly lead by linebacker Justin Houston who was just a half sack from the single season record in 2014. Fellow linebacker Derrick Johnson returns from a torn Achilles, while first round pick Marcus Peters (corner) looks to bolster a secondary that finished 30th in interceptions; Kansas City also finished second against the pass and in points allowed but 28th against the run. The Chiefs have exciting players on both sides of the ball, and a run at the Wild Card is feasible.

4. Oakland Raiders (5-11): Quarterback Derek Carr had an atrocious supporting cast last season with no depth at running back and receiver and still had almost twice as many touchdowns as interceptions- 21 and 12. Latavius Murray burst on to the scene late last season, looking like the running back of the future; nevertheless, Oakland went out and signed fellow running back Roy Helu and receiver Michael Crabtree. The biggest move was drafting Amari Cooper, who already looks like one of the NFL's best route runners and my pick for Offensive Rookie of the Year. They also improved their offensive line by signing the NFL's best center in Rodney Hudson. The defensively was equally as bad as the defense last season, finishing 21st in total defense, 22nd against the run, last in points allowed, 27th in interceptions, and 30th in sacks. Khalil Mack enters his second year as a starter and improved his play in the passing game as the year progressed, while the free agent signings of safety Nate Allen, linebacker Curtis Lofton, and defensive tackle Dan Williams will drastically improve the defense. The Raiders have built a foundation on offense around Carr and on defense around Mack but must maintain their patience with the coaching staff. In three years, this could easily be one of the AFC's top teams.

AFC Wildcard: Denver vs. Pittsburgh/Baltimore vs. Miami
AFC Divisional: New England vs. Pittsburgh/Baltimore vs. Indianapolis
AFC Championship: New England over Indianapolis

NFC East
1. Dallas Cowboys (11-5): Tony Romo enters his 13th season and has shown no signs of slowing down with one of, if not thee, best receivers in the NFL in Dez Bryant. The loss of running back DeMarco Murray will be noticeable, but the Cowboys have the NFL's best offensive line bar none and newly Darren McFadden will make an impact in the run game and out of the backfield as well. Tight end Jason Witten returns for his 13th season and will once again be one of the NFL's best. The defense struggled mightily with a below average secondary that was apart of a defense that was 19th in total defense, 26th against the pass, 15th in points allowed, and 28th in sacks. They hit the jackpot by signing defensive Greg Hardy and stealing edge rusher Randy Gregory in the second round of the draft; first round pick Byron Jones also offers an upgrade at defensive back. The schedule and NFC East don't provide too many difficulties, though Weeks 5-9 will be grueling.

2. Philadelphia Eagles (10-6): Chip Kelly is taking a chance on quarterback Sam Bradford, who has suffered two torn ACLs the past two seasons; when he's healthy he is one of the NFL's most efficient. Kelly also made a huge splash by signing free agent running back DeMarco Murray while signing Ryan Matthews. First round pick Nelso Agholor provides depth at wide receiver, along with free agent Miles Austin, and a serious deep threat. The defense was completely overhauled, bringing in free agent corners Byron Maxwell and Walter Thurmond and drafting Eric Rowe to play in Dom Capers' press-man coverage. They also traded for linebacker Kiko Alonso who will contribute to the Eagles' stout run defense. Kelly produced top five offenses in his two seasons in Philly, and if Bradford and the injury prone Matthews can stay 100% healthy, this could easily be his best offense. The defense seems to have fixed its biggest issue (defensive back) but only time will tell.

3. New York Giants (8-8): Eli Manning set a career mark by completing 63.1% of his passes while throwing for 4,410 yards without Victor Cruz for 10 games and Odell Beckham Jr. for four. The backfield is rather talented with bruiser Andre Williams and Rashad Jennings, who ran for 639 yards in 11 games; the addition of Shane Vereen provides Manning an electric player out of the backfield. If Cruz and Beckham Jr. can stay healthy, they will likely be the league's top duo and catalyst's for one of the NFL's top passing games. The defense was awful last season, finishing 29th in total defense, 30th against the run, 18th against the pass, and 22nd in points allowed. They signed linebacker Johnathan Casillas, defensive tackle Kendrick Ellis, and defense end George Selvie and drafted safety Landon Collins, all who will make an impact this season. It will be interesting to see what impact Jason Pierre-Paul and first round pick Ereck Flowers (right tackle) will have, but will it ultimately come down to how the defense performs. Eight wins or less could lead to Tom Coughlin's firing.

4. Washington Redskins (4-12): Washington's quarterback saga continues as Robert Griffin III ha become an injury and turnover prone liability. The offense has suffered the past two seasons as Jay Gruden will turn to Kirk Cousins to guide it; Desean Jackson is a playmaker (20.9 ypc last season) who will be targeted more than any other pass catcher on that team while Pierre Garcon looks to build on his 68 catch season. Alfred Morris barely surpassed 1,000 yards last season but the loss of Roy Helu thins the run game even more. Washington took Brandon Scherff with the fifth pick in the Draft in an effort to shore up the offensive line. After finishing 20th in total defense and 29th in points, the Redskins reloaded on defense by signing safety Dashon Goldson, defensive end Ricky Jean-Francois, corner Chris Culliver, and defensive tackles Stephen Paea and Terrance Knighton. The Redskins are notorious for trying to build through free agency but the results have yet to be positive. With questions and uncertainty on offense and a brand new defense, it's difficult envisioning they have four winnable games on their schedule; only seven wins in the last two seasons.

NFC North
1. Green Bay Packers (13-3): Aaron Rodgers is neck and neck with Brady as the game's best quarterback, and with running back Eddie Lacy, receivers Randall Cobb and Davante Adams (Jordy Nelson's injury will certainly be felt), and the league's most efficient offensive line, the Pack will likely lead the league in scoring yet again. Defensively, they were very good in most areas (15th in total defense, 10th against the pass, seventh in sacks, and ninth in interceptions) but struggled against the run, finishing 23rd. They spent their first two draft picks on safety Damarious Randall and corner Quinten Rollins, two talented secondary players, while adding electrifying return man and receiver Ty Montgomery in the third round. With Rodgers at the helm and a stout defense, this team is more than capable of another 15-1 regular season run similar to the one they had in 2011. They are certainly Super Bowl favorites.

2. Detroit Lions (9-7): Matt Satfford and Calvin Johnson are still a top quarterback-wide receiver duo in the NFL, and young tight end Eric Ebron looks to breakout in his second year, but there is a question of Stafford's passion that could hinder their success on offense. Joique Bell returns as the workhouse in the backfield (860 yards, seven touchdowns in 2014), but the addition of shifty back Ameer Abdullah adds another dynamic to the offense. The Lions took massive hits on the defensive line as Ndamukong Suh, C.J. Mosley, and Nick Fairley are all gone from a unit that racked up the eighth most sacks last season. Signing Haloti Ngata and Tyrunn Walker is an excellent place to start in an attempt to replicate the success. The Lions have come quite a long way from 2008 when they went 0-16, having gone 38-42 since 2010. The weapons on there on offense, but that talented defensive line was the catalyst behind the NFL's second best total defense third best scoring defense; this is the time for Detroit to win.

3. Minnesota Vikings (8-8): Minnesota seems to have found their franchise quarterback in Teddy Bridgewater but it's only been one season and there are questions how much higher his ceiling really is. Acquiring receiver Mike Wallace in the offseason and getting running back Adrian Peterson back for the whole season are huge additions to an offense that struggled scoring points last season (20th). The defense was solid last season, and got even better by adding linebackers Casey Matthews and Eric Kendricks and corners Terrance Newman and Trae Waynes while the defensive line is developing into a strong group. Bridgewater has to take the next step and has the weapons to do so but the offense is still relatively young and might be two years away. The defense can only carry this team so far.

4. Chicago Bears (6-10): The Bears decided to keep Cutler as their starting quarterback whose 52.6 QBR was fairly average last season. Losing receiver Brandon Marshall will be noticeable, and it doesn't look like first round pick Kevin White is going to see the field anytime soon as he nurses a shin injury that could take his rookie season from him. Cutler will have to rely on tight end Martellus Bennt, who had a crazy productive 2014 season (90 catches for 916 yards and six touchdowns), free agent signee Eddie Royal, and do it all running back Matt Forte (1,038 rushing yards and six touchdowns and 102 receptions for 808 yards and four touchdowns). The defense upgraded by signing line backer Pernell McPhee, safety Antrel Rolle, and defensive end Ray McDonald and drafting defensive tackle Eddie Goldman in the second round, while corner Kyle Fuller looks to have a big season. Bringing in a new offensive and defensive coordinator will shore up things on both sides of the ball, but the NFC North is becoming increasingly competitive and the loss of Marshall and White, along with an aging Cutler, will hold this team back from reaching their true potential.

NFC South
1. New Orleans Saints (9-7): Quarterback Drew Brees had the fifth highest QBR last season (73.3) along with the third most interceptions with 17. The loss of tight end Jimmy Graham and Still are massive blows but center Max Unger is a great addition to the offensive line while free agent running back C.J. Spiller will provide the Saints with a dynamic backfield alongside Mark Ingram; receiver Brandin Cooks returns to full healthy as a serious deep threat. The defense was awful last season, ranking 29th against the run, 25th against the pass, 28th in points, and 31st in total yards. They made huge strides in the offseason though, trading for linebacker Dannell Ellerbe, signing corners Kyle Wilson and Brandon Browner and linebacker Anthony Spencer, and drafting linebacker Stephone Anthony and corner P.J. Williams. This division is rather weak from the top to bottom, and the Saints could make the playoffs with an 8-8 record. Should they keep Brees healthy and improve defensively, double digit wins is attainable.

2. Carolina Panthers (8-8): For some, the jury is still out on quarterback Cam Newton, who has compiled a 32-31-1 record in four seasons, while the 2013 season that saw them go 12-4 was mainly the result of one of the NFL's top defenses. Tight end Greg Olson compiled an impressive stat line last season (84-1,008-6) but the loss of receiver Kelvin Benjamin is certainly going to hurt; Carolina took Michigan's unpolished receiver/tight end hybrid Devin Funchess in the second round of the draft, but there is very little serious depth at both positions. Running back Johnathan Stewart figures to be a integral part of the Panthers' offense. The defense figures to be the anchor of this team, centered around arguably the NFL's best linebacking duo in Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis. They also added free agent corner Charles Tillman and drafted linebacker Shaq Thompson. Cam Newton will battle the injury bug, while losing one of two 1,000 yard receivers (only four other teams accomplished that feat) is a huge blow. There is only so much the defense can do.

3. Atlanta Falcons (8-8): Atlanta was better than their 6-10 record suggested last year behind quarterback Matt Ryan, one of the NFL's top ranked in QBR since 2008. They have an unbelievable receiving corp with Julio Jones, Roddy White, Devin Hester, and newly acquired tight end Jacob Tamme. Devonta Freeman is set to take over the starting running back role as a threat in the passing game, while third rounder Tevin Coleman will see the field as well. New head coach Dan Quinn built a defensive empire in Seattle as he looks to fix the Falcons' defensive woes (last in total defense and against the pass, 21st against the run, 27th in points, and 30th in sacks). They drafted pass rusher Vic Beasley in the first round and signed defensive end Adrian Clayborn and linebackers Justin Durant and Brooks Reed to bolster their defense. Quinn will have the defense in shape but they will experience some growing pains as they were absolutely atrocious last season, while Jones and Ryan will have to stay healthy to make a run at the division.

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-11): The offense has a new leader in rookie quarterback Jameis Winston, the number one overall pick. While the running game and offensive line are legit concerns, he has weapons in receivers Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans, who both eclipsed the 1,000 yard mark last season, and tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins. On the other side of the ball, playmakers Lavonte David and Gerald McCoy are joined by free agents Bruce Carter (linebacker), Chris Conte (safety), Henry Melton (defensive tackle), and D.J. Swearinger (safety). 10 of their 14 losses last season were by 10 points or less, suggesting they were closer in games and better than most truly remember. Starting a rookie at football's most position automatically means growing pains, but Winston is unbelievably talented and has the pieces and the defense, along with veteran head coach Lovie Smith.

NFC West
1. Seattle Seahawks (12-4): Russell Wilson finally signed his contract extension ($87 million) as one of the NFC's best quarterbacks: 3,475 yards, 20 touchdowns, and only seven interceptions. Bruising running back Marshawn Lynch figures to get around 300 touches again, while the additions of Graham and third round pick Tyler Lockett add firepower to the passing game. Losing Quinn will hurt the defense but they were still so good last season (first in total defense, against the pass, and points and third against the run) that they shouldn't take any steps back; the addition of corners Will Blackmon and Cary Williams are vital to the secondary's success. The Seahawks lost four games by only 22 points last season and realistically have the talent to go 16-0, but with games against the Packers, Cowboys, Steelers, and Ravens, they will be tested.

2. Arizona Cardinals (10-6): The Cards started 6-0, and are 13-2 in his last 15 starts, before quarterback Carson Palmer was lost for the season to an ACL injury. Running back Andre Ellington will again be a factor in passing game while getting the bulk of the carries. Receiver Larry Fitzgerald is back (and older), but John Brown and Michael Floyd are an emerging duo that may take the league by storm; the offensive line received major help with free agents Mike Iupati and A.Q. Shipley and first round pick D.J. Humphries. The defense struggled against the pass (29th) and total yards (24th) but only surrendered the fifth most points; Arizona added depth at linebacker via free agency with LaMarr Woodley and Sean Weatherspoon, while drafting defensive end Markus Golden in the second round signing fellow end Cory Redding. The Cardinals have a strong roster and coach in Bruce Arians (two time Coach of the Year) to make a serious run at the division and in the playoffs.

3. St. Louis Rams (8-8): St. Louis traded for quarterback Nick Foles, who isn't as talented as Sam Bradford, but doesn't have an injury issue and is a far bigger upgrade than Austin Davis, Case Keenum, or Shaun Hill. They spent a first round pick on Todd Gurley who, along with Tre Davis, forma formidable backfield. The receiving corp remained unchanged and should finally be able to stretch the field and be playmakers with better quarterback play and new offensive coordinator Frank Cignetti. They also completely overhauled their offensive line, spending four of nine draft picks on offensive linemen. The defense made huge splashes by signing defensive tackle Nick Fairley and linebacker Akeem Ayers, forming one of the league's best front sevens (12th in sacks last season). People will look at eight wins and raise their eyebrows, but the reality is they won six last year with two different quarterbacks, two that are also not nearly as talented as Foles. Even if Gurley doesn't play right away, Mason ran for 765 yards and four touchdowns in only 12 games and playmakers such as Tavon Austin and Kenny Britt will be used more effectively. The defense will improve on their middle-of-the-pack performances last season, as the Rams will continue to play the rest of division tough.

4. San Francisco 49ers (6-10): The mass exodus that occurred in San Francisco affected the offensive line as Iuptai and right tackle Anthony Davis are both gone from a line that allowed the second most third most sacks in the NFL. Long time running back Frank Gore also left but turned to Reggie Bush to help build their backfield lead by Carlos Hyde. Receiver Michael Crabtree also partook in the mass exodus; his replacement? Torrey Smith, second in the league last season in drops with 11 on 89 targets but did catch 11 touchdowns. Anquan Boldin and Vernon Davis are 34 and 31 respectively but figure to have an impact again. Quarterback Colin Kaepernick spent his offseason progressing, but has work to do after only throwing 19touchdowns and 10 interceptions. The defense was most affected, losing linebackers Chris Borland and Patrick Willis and defensive linemen Justin Smith, Aldon Smith and Ray McDonald. Free agent signee Darnell Dockett (defensive tackle) is coming off an ACL tear while linebacker NaVorro Bowman is returning from a gruesome knee injury in January 2014; both are still trying to play at 100%. The offense was 30th in passing, 20th in total offense, and 25th in points, and didn't really do anything to suggest they will be better, while the defense lost it's corp players, as well as star defensive coordinator Vic Fangio. Head coach Jim Tomsula is unproven in an improving division.

NFC Wildcard: Philadelphia vs. New Orleans/Dallas vs. Arizona
NFC Divisional: Green Bay vs. Philadelphia/Dallas vs. Seattle
NFC Championship: Green Bay over Seattle

Super Bowl 50: Green Bay over New England
This is as good as coin toss in all reality. As long as Brady is in New England, the Pats will be Super Bowl contenders and should run through the playoffs (although the AFC Championship game will be much closer than it was last year). The Packers are equally identical: elite quarterback and head coach, playmakers on offense, and stout defenses. Green Bay should've never lost to Seattle last season in the NFC Championship game after forcing four Russell Wilson interceptions and being up 16-0 at the half. Green Bay retained their nucleus of talent and will be neck and neck with the Seahawks as the NFC's best team. Losing Browner, Revis, and running backs Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley will ultimately be the edge in this game as all were vital to New England's success, while Green Bay revamped their shaky secondary. Seattle and Indy are also real options, but Green Bay should finish on top.